466
FXUS65 KGGW 222125
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
225 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Strong to intense winds will move into central Montana tonight,
  and into northeast Montana by Monday.

- Scattered rain and freezing rain is expected on Sunday night
  into Monday evening. Rain that does fall will likely freeze on
  frozen ground leaving icy roads and sidewalks.

- Thawing conditions will potentially bring muddy conditions on
  local roads, leading to difficult access on unpaved roads.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A shortwave trough and quick moving Pacific low pressure system
will aid in bringing breezy conditions on Sunday, and eventual
scattered rain and freezing rain on Sunday night. North of the
Missouri River and east of Hwy 24, there is moderate confidence
(50 percent) of freezing rain accumulating 0.01", and low
confidence (25 percent) of freezing rain accumulating greater than
0.05". The deterministic GFS, Nam, and ECMWF have come into
agreement on a banded feature moving through the previously
mentioned location of freezing rain. A low probability, high
impact freezing rain event could make for difficult travel
conditions. However, warming surface temperatures on Monday would
allow for icy conditions to improve a bit as the ice melts.

A strong surface low will allow intense winds to mix down to the
surface for southwest Phillips county on Sunday. A push of
positive vorticity advection will aid in more widespread intense
winds on Monday. Therefore, a High Wind Warning has been issued
for southwest Phillips for 3 AM Sunday through 5 PM Monday, and a
High Wind Watch has been issued for the remainder of the CWA from
3 AM Monday through 5 PM Monday.

Another quick moving disturbance will move in Monday night into
Tuesday. There is low confidence on precipitation occurring and accumulating
freezing rain occurring in this period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

For deviations, winds were adjusted in day 1 and day 2 to better
serve the high wind headlines.

There is low to moderate confidence on accumulating freezing rain,
since surface temperatures will be very close to the freezing mark
on Sunday night. There is high confidence of winds gusting to 50
mph and greater for Sunday in southwest Phillips county, and
moderate confidence on Monday for the entire CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATED: 2100Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: High clouds will continue to move through the area
during the TAF cycle. A surface trough will aid in rain developing
late on Sunday, with high (60 to 80 percent) confidence this will
stay as rain through 07Z Monday before attempting to change over
to freezing rain.

WIND: West southwest at 5 to 15 kts, increasing to 15 to 25 kts
after 16Z Sunday.

LLWS: Low level wind shear is expected to impact the terminals
from 00Z Sunday through 00Z Monday. There is low confidence of
LLWS appearing again late Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As arctic air pushes east into the central plains, a ridge will
move in to bring temperatures above average through the end of
next week. Although temperatures each night will drop near or
below freezing, warm daytime temperatures will increase snowmelt
and lead to ponding in low lying areas. There is moderate
confidence precipitation amounts are expected to remain below one
tenth of an inch Sunday night into Monday night, so little to no
impact on runoff is expected from this event.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon
for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-
Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern
Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-
Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.

High Wind Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 5 PM MST Monday for
Southwest Phillips.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow