415
FXUS65 KGGW 072105
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
305 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:

1) Expect a gradual warmup through the midweek with dry weather
conditions.

2) The next chance for rain showers looks to arrive over the
  weekend, but greater probabilities and higher amounts will
  remain over the mountains of western, central, and southern
  Montana.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

NE Montana will remain under the influence of an upper ridge
pattern over the next few days. As the flow aloft transitions more
to the southwest as the ridge slides east, expect warmer
temperatures to spread across the northern High Plains. Large
scale subsidence should be more than enough to drive mainly dry
weather conditions over the area for this duration.

As this ridge continues to drift downstream, a Pacific NW trough
and closed low will deepen and become a greater influence on the
weather across NE Montana. This system will track east with cool
and wet weather for the weekend. As it stands, ensembles show a
few hundredths to a tenth of an inch or so of QPF for most areas,
with the most significant precipitation over the mountain regions
of Montana where a little accumulating snow is possible. That
said, temperatures may be cold enough for snow or a mix,
especially for higher terrain in the southwest zones such as the
Little Rockies, by Sunday night, if any precipitation lingers.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

NBM was largely followed for the forecast this cycle with little
deviation needed from baseline. Winds were nudged upward however
through tonight to account for recent observations that were a bit
above forecast. Confidence remains high on warm and dry conditions
over the next couple of days with a trend toward cooler and wetter
weather this weekend. It is continued to believe uncertain whether
precipitation type issues will result late this weekend given
marginal temperature profiles and given the greater probabilities
may be focused south and west of the CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATE: October 7, 2025 at 2100Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Clear skies will prevail tonight, resulting in
excellent flying weather.

WIND: South to southeast winds will range between 5 and 15 kts
through tonight with occasional higher gusts.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow