255
FXUS65 KGGW 090831
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
231 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
- Above average temperatures and dry conditions continue through
  Saturday.

- Chances for rain push into northeast Montana Saturday night,
  with preliminary weekend totals between 0.25" and 0.75", with
  highest totals in the northwest.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Today through Saturday, A strong upper level ridge bringing
northwest flow aloft will continue to build over the region,
causing above average temperatures and dry weather to much of
Montana. Unseasonably warm temperatures will peak on Saturday
before the ridge exit eastward.

Saturday night into Sunday, An incoming Pacific Northwest trough
will deepen and become a greater influence on the weather across
NE Montana quickly switching the flow aloft to the SW and pulling
in Pacific moisture and weak shortwave lift zones. A surface low
will form underneath this flow aloft in response Saturday night
and generate a strong cold front on the back side of it. The cold
front and areas behind it as it passes will become the focal point
for development of rain showers, especially with any shortwave
that interacts with it in the SW pacific flow. THis is dragging
anywhere from a quarter to 3 quarters of an inch across the NE
Montana. The bulk of it will start over central Montana Saturday
night but shift eastward late Sunday morning with partial clearing
Sunday night.

A near 20 degree drop in temps across the board with this front
will also provide a strong pressure gradient for strong winds.
A Lake Wind Advisory is likely with this passage.

Sunday night through Thursday: Cooler conditions will steady out
with highs in the 50s. While most periods will be dry Tuesday
night into Wednesday is hinting at another shortwave passage in the
flow. Ensembles have not decided yet on how the SW flow will set
up or progress through Thursday. So this shortwave and any
rainfall is low to moderate confidence and subject to change in
future forecasts.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Little to no deviation from NBM baseline was observed.

Confidence is high in temperatures through Saturday.
Confidence is high in a Lake Wind Advisory Sunday.

Confidence is moderate in post frontal rainfall Sunday morning.
Confidence is moderate in temperatures Sunday onward.

Confidence is low in rainfall Tuesday night/Wednesday.

GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATE: 0815Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Clear skies and dry weather continue through the
cycle.

WIND: Light and N this morning. Veering NE and increasing to 5 to
15 kts this afternoon. Veering E and becoming light again this
evening through tonight.

GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow