899
FXUS65 KGGW 030810
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
210 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
1) Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will form
along a frontal boundary from Opheim to Wolf Point to Sidney mid
afternoon and slowly exit to the east this evening.

2) A marginal threat for severe storms is in place for Monday
which includes wind, hail, and flooding threats.

3) Active pattern will remain in place this week with chances for
showers and thunderstorms continuing at times along with
seasonable temperatures.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Today and tonight, A frontal boundary oriented from Opheim to
Wolf Point to Sidney will be the focus for isolated to scattered
storm initiation mid- afternoon which will slowly drift eastward
into North Dakota into the evening hours. Main threat will be
heavy rain as PWs are around 1.25" and expected to remain there
through much of the week. So, while severe weather is not the main
thing today, light flooding may be possible late in the day. A
brief dry period is expected most of the night.

Monday, a new wave of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
enter the CWA from the west with a potential for large hail and
damaging winds. SPC has placed the most of the CWA under marginal
threat, so this will need to be watched.

Higher resolution model data shows a slight decrease in smoke and
therefore increase in air quality for a short time. However,
western flow does begin to drag a few smaller plumes into the area
around mid-day Monday from smaller PCNW fires. So air quality
could drop again from there onward but will be no where near as
low as when the candaian fires were injecting the smoke across the
region.

Zonal to southwest flow will remain in place through the early
weekend allowing for showers and thunderstorms with some possibly
becoming severe each afternoon and evening through Saturday.
Longer term ensembles in fact point to a decreasing trend in
temperatures toward next weekend.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM was largely followed this forecast cycle and handled
expectations well. Confidence remains high on showers and
thunderstorm forming along the said line today, but low on exact
locations.



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0730Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions are expected through about 18Z.
Anothern round of showers and thunderstorms will then form on a
frontal boundary oriented from Opheim to KOLF to KSDY and slowly
drift east through the afternoon and early evening hours. Storms
should exit the area by about 02-04Z leaving a dry night. These
storms are not expected to be severe but may have very heavyt rain
which could briefly generate temporary IFR Visibility with their
passage.

WIND: Light and variable this morning. Becioming more W at 10 or
less this afternoon. Then light and variable again this evening through
tonight.

GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow