086
FXUS65 KGGW 220835
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
235 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Isolated to scattered showers are possible at times today with
the most frequent showers near the Canadian Border.

2) Breezy west to NW winds will be strong enough for a Lake Wind
Advisory today.

3) More showers are possible Wednesday night and Thursday,
especially south.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper trough will be over Montana and the Dakotas today with upper
low that will drift east along the Canadian Border with NE Montana
this morning and North Dakota this afternoon. There will be wrap
around moisture with this low today that will be along and north
of the Canadian Border. Somewhat unstable atmosphere will allow
showers at times across the region today which will be the most
frequent near the Canadian Border.

HREF has a 60 percent chance of west to NW winds today exceeding
Lake Wind Advisory criteria today mainly this afternoon. The new
wave height program has wave heights reaching 3 feet on the open
waters of Fort Peck Lake this afternoon. Will issue a Lake Wind
Advisory between 10 am and 7 pm today for Fort Peck Lake.

The upper trough/low moves to the east this evening and another
system looks to move across southern Montana Wednesday and
Thursday which bring a chance of showers mainly south of the
Missouri River.

A slow moving upper trough moves in from the west this weekend and
remains over the area into early next week with frequent chances
for showers.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is high north and low south on any showers occurring
today. Confidence is also high on the winds being strong enough
for a Lake Wind Advisory. Raised wind speeds today as wind aloft
show mix down with unstable atmosphere and modified pops to
provide better hour to hour consistency than the NBM provided.

Low confidence on any precipitation chances Wednesday and beyond.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0830Z, Tuesday Morning, April 22nd.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: Ranging from VFR to IFR today and VFR tonight.

DISCUSSION: Wrap around moisture from upper low moving along the
Canadian Border today will bring varying amounts of low clouds
across NE Montana today with ceilings varying from IFR to low VFR.
Isolated to scattered showers are also expected which will be the
most frequent this afternoon. Skies will clear this evening with
VFR conditions expected.

West 5 to 10 knots early will become WNW 15 to 20 knots this
morning and NW this afternoon. Winds will become north 5 to 10
knots and diminish to light and variable overnight.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern
Valley-Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow