023
FXUS65 KGGW 231022
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
322 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Strong to intense winds will move into central Montana this
  morning, and into northeast Montana by Monday.

- Scattered rain and freezing rain is expected late tonight into
  Monday evening. Rain that does fall during the overnight and
  early morning hours will likely freeze on frozen ground leaving
  icy roads and sidewalks.

- Thawing conditions will create muddy conditions on local roads,
  leading to difficult access on unpaved roads.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Shortwaves in the nearly zonal Pacific flow will aid in bringing
breezy conditions to the region today, and eventually scattered
rain and freezing rain overnight.

A weak surface low will tighten the pressure gradient enough on
Monday to help the intense winds aloft to mix down to the surface
as it crosses the region on Monday. A High Wind Warning remains in
effect for southwest Phillips for today and Monday, and a High
Wind Watch for the remainder of the CWA from early Monday morning
through Monday afternoon.

This surface boundary is also expected to bring a band of
precipitation across the region. While it will mostly be rain, the
overnight passage could result in freezing rain mainly along and
north of Hwy 2 from late tonight into Monday morning.

Another quick moving disturbance will move in Monday night into
Tuesday. Another round of precipitation including freezing rain is
possible with this system.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence for meeting high wind criteria is moderate today for
the area around the Little Rockies. Confidence increases for
Monday with the probability for wind gusts over 50 mph reaching
80-100% from the Little Rockies across to the Big Sheeps during
the morning hours.

Accumulating freezing rain probabilities top out around 40% on
Monday morning along Hwy 2. The low confidence is mainly due to
the generally low probability of accumulating precipitation.
However with temperatures hovering just below the freezing mark
any precipiation will likely result in slick road surfaces.



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Mid to high clouds will continue to move through the area,
with scattered showers expected throughout the TAF period. Expect
rain during the day, with freezing rain or icing possible
overnight as temperatures drop.

Low level wind shear is possible this morning before strong winds
aloft mix out the inversion. A mixed boundary layer with gusty
winds is expected for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Above average temperatures are expected through the end of next
week. Although temperatures each night will drop near or below
freezing, warm daytime temperatures will increase snowmelt and
lead to ponding of water in low lying areas. There is moderate
confidence precipitation amounts are expected to remain below one
tenth of an inch Sunday night into Monday night, so little to no
impact on runoff is expected from this event.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon for
Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-
Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern
Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-
Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for Southwest Phillips.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow