253
FXUS65 KGGW 222124
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
224 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for mainly north of
the Missouri River now through Sunday afternoon.

2) Initial snow will push through the region this evening with
visibility below 1 mile at times. A flip to wintry mix is expected
tonight and Saturday morning before precipitation ends as snow
late Saturday.

3) Expect a marked dive in temperatures on Sunday night with lows
in the single digits above and below zero. Below normal
temperatures will persist through next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

HREF as well as various NBM guidance continues to show an initial
round of moderate snow approaching the region from the west.
This is already showing up on radar and reaching the Malta area.
Look for visibilities below 1 mile possible at times this evening
in accumulating snow. Where cold air becomes more shallow, expect
a change to mix and a chance for freezing rain tonight into
Saturday before a flip back to snow Saturday evening as
precipitation ends. All told look for 2 to 4 inches of snowfall
accumulations and a glaze of ice possible.

As the system exits, markedly colder temperatures will settle in
with lows near zero across NE Montana by Monday morning as Arctic
temperatures plunge southward over the northern plains. With the
broad deep upper level trough pattern over the western U.S.,
colder temperatures will likely persist into much of next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is moderate to high on snow and mixed precipitation
tonight and Saturday but lower on the exact amount of snowfall due
to uncertainties with mixed precipitation, freezing rain, and even
a pause from the south in the precipitation on Saturday. The best
estimate remains 2 to 4 inches of snowfall and up to a glaze of
ice.



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will deteriorate to MVFR and eventually IFR this afternoon and
tonight as snow and mixed precipitation spreads across the region
from west to east. Up to a 20 percent chance of freezing rain
leading to icy conditions exists for tonight and Saturday morning,
but accumulations more than a light glaze are not expected.

Winds will become east at 5 to 15 kts, increasing to 10 to 20 kts
on Saturday.



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Sunday for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Eastern
Roosevelt-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Sheridan-Southwest
Phillips-Western Roosevelt.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow