192
FXUS65 KGGW 200849
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
249 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Expect thunderstorms to concentrate this afternoon and evening
along the MT/ND border, more isolated west.

2) More widespread thunderstorms are expected Monday night into
Tuesday with heavy rain possible.

3) Temperatures will be seasonable for the time of year over the
next couple of days but trending below average by the middle of
the week. Another warm up as conditions dry out is expected late
week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
today, especially near the MT/ND border with more isolated
coverage to the west. The next system will bring in widespread
showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday with ensemble
average precipitation ranging between 0.25" and 0.75" QPF for the
period.

Warm and seasonably average temperatures are expected over the
next couple of days but will trend below average as active weather
stays in place with the shortwave trough anchored over Montana for
the middle of the week.

Ensembles are beginning to point toward a ridge pattern
developing across the Northern High Plains for late in the week
into the upcoming weekend for drier and warmer weather conditions.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Pops were adjusted in the near term for consistency and
collaboration. Otherwise, NBM was followed this forecast cycle and
captured expected trends well overall. Confidence is high on warm
temperatures and active weather for the next few days and that
cool down for the middle of the week. Lower confidence exists on
the exact time frame for drying out and warming up late in the
week due to uncertainties at later time scales. That said, there
is fairly good model consensus on the idea.



&&

.AVIATION...

Updated: 0845Z, July 20th

PATTERN: Shower and thunderstorm chances will concentrate along
the MT/ND border today, with more isolated coverage to the west.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR conditions are expected overall but
IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible with
thunderstorms, especially near KSDY and KGDV this afternoon
through tonight.

WINDS: Gusty and shifting winds are possible near storms.
Otherwise, expect light and variable if not a prevailing light
west wind around 5 to 8 kts at KGGW and KOLF. Light south to
southeast winds are expected for KSDY and KGDV.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow