Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
662 FXUS65 KGGW 072245 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 445 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Daytime Gusty frontal winds in excess of 40 mph will persist through Sunday evening. - Red Flag Warning for elevated fire weather conditions today, has been extended for Sunday as well, for all NE MT fire weather zones. See Fire Weather discussion below. - A weather pattern change next week will result in more favorable conditions for organized thunderstorms, beginning on Tuesday evening. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Decently strong low pressure system coming off the Canadian Rockies onto the Canadian plains has spun its southern extent through Montana, and brought stronger than expected wind gusts and smoke from Alberta wildfires through most of NE MT. Visibility has dropped to as low as 4SM. A few quickly-passing scattered rain showers have brought sprinkles to some locations, which will eventually spread away toward the south this evening. While NW winds diminish somewhat tonight, gusts up to 40 mph return on Sunday and the low RH is expected to cover a larger area. An additional Red Flag Warning has been issued for Sunday. By Monday, the tight pressure gradient weakens as the upper-level trough moves more over the Great Lakes Region and a strong upper- level ridge of high pressure expands over the western states. This will provide hot and dry conditions from Monday through Tuesday, but surface winds will be generally light, thus not posing as much of a fire weather threat. Tuesday evening and beyond, region-wide conditions set up for organized summertime thunderstorms, with higher humidity from the south/southeast and troughing/SW flow moving in from the PAC NW. Models are hinting at strong thunderstorms from our SW on Wednesday evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is high for elevated fire weather conditions over the weekend. Confidence is increasing for organized thunderstorm activity beginning around the middle of next week. Used a blend of hi-res short term consensus models for all weather elements now through Day 2. For Days 3 and beyond, kept with the given NBM. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 2245Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR DISCUSSION: A decently-strong low pressure system from the Canadian Rockies has pushed gusty wind and wildfire SMOKE and HAZE into NE MT today. SMOKE and HAZE will lead to IFR briefly before 00Z. Visibility should rise to MVFR adn then back to VFR by about 04Z. HAZE and gusty winds will persist randomly through the weekend for most locations. Ceilings today will be mid-level (5kft to 10kft), then expect clearing tonight. WIND: This afternoon, NW at 25 to 30 kts, gusting to 40 kts. Tonight, diminishing to around 15 kts. Sunday, gusty wind returns, up to 40 kts by the afternoon. /GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT Sunday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Sunday for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow