849
FXUS65 KGGW 011945
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
145 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into
  early next week. Some storms may be severe or produce heavy
  rain.

- Temperatures will continue to be near or slightly below normal.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Have been watching the thunderstorms over western Phillips county
today as precipitation has been training over the same area since
early this morning. Radar estimates as of 1 pm has shown about 3
to possibly 6 inches of rain in eastern Blaine and western
Phillips county between Dodson and Fort Belknap. Have made phone
calls for impacts such as Highway 2 road closures, but nothing
yet.

High Precipitable Water values (a measure of atmospheric
humidity) in the area have been the culprit for the heavy rains
the past couple days. It looks like another round of showers and
thunderstorms move northeast into western Phillips county tonight
so current Flood Advisory may have to be extended again. But
latest HRRR model showing heaviest rainfall should be to the
west.

A weak upper level jet stream over the area will gradually give
way to an upper trough moving in from the Pacific this weekend.
This will keep the chances of shower and thunderstorm activity
around through most of the forecast period.

Candian wildfire smoke has moved south into the northern plains,
mainly affecting the eastern zones. Will add smoke and haze in for
these areas.

Without a typical mid to late summer upper ridge in place, temperatures
through the period should remain near normal.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Generally followed the NBM but models have moderate at best for
confidence on placement of showers & thunderstorms.


&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR. There is moderate to high confidence all TAF sites
will experience scattered storms during the TAF period. Gusty
erratic winds and heavy rain is possible with these storms.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow