450
FXUS65 KGGW 240925
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
325 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warmer temperatures will return through the middle part of the
  week, but chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
  at times.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper trough over the western states with southwest flow
increasing through midweek. With high pressure dropping into the
upper midwest, low level southeast return flow will spread
moisture into the region. This will lead to warming temperatures
and an increasing chance for thunderstorms. Looking at modeled
CAPE and shear, Wednesday will have the focus for strong to
severe hail and wind threats, mainly near the North Dakota
border.

Later in the week an upper trough/shortwave swings through the
Pacific Northwest, dropping temperatures slightly into the
weekend. The potential for occasional thunderstorms will continue
into early next week.

By Monday upper ridge builds into the Great Basin with
temperatures warming again. The position of the surface high over
the region will generally keep the region dry.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

The NBM was largely maintained for the current forecast cycle.
Confidence is high on the warming trend for temperatures this week
and low to medium on the timing of any shower and thunderstorm
chances, as there is a low predictability in the timing and track
of specific shortwaves in the flow. Confidence is moderate, but
increasing for at least marginal severe storm potential Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with mostly clear into the afternoon. Some cumulus may develop
near the Yellowstone valley late in the day and persist into the
overnight hours with thunderstorms possible to the southeast.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow