175
FXUS65 KGGW 060755
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
155 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm and dry weather is expected today.

- Gusty NW winds are expected this weekend with low RH at times.

- A weather pattern change next week will result in more favorable
  conditions for thunderstorms, beginning on Tuesday evening.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A shortwave ridge in NW flow aloft will bring dry weather with
warm temperatures today.

A cold front Saturday morning will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the north in the morning that could spread
to most of the forecast area during the afternoon. Low
precipitation amounts are expected with any precipitation that
occurs on Saturday. Gusty NW winds will develop behind the cold
front Saturday morning that will continue through the afternoon
before diminishing somewhat Saturday night. A Lake Wind Advisory
is expected for Fort Peck Lake on Saturday. Low RH between 20 and
30% is expected Saturday afternoon which could bring critical fire
weather conditions especially north of the Missouri River and
west of MT 13 where a very dry spring has limited green up. Will
issue a Fire Weather Watch across the north for Saturday.

Tight surface gradient will combine with a strong NNW flow aloft
on Sunday to bring gusty NW winds with low RH. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible again and a Lake Wind Advisory is
expected for Fort Peck Lake.

Upper ridge moves into the area on Monday with warmer temperatures
that will peak on Tuesday with highs near 90.

Tuesday evening and beyond, region-wide conditions set up for
organized summertime thunderstorms, with higher humidity from the
south/southeast and troughing/SW flow moving in from the PAC NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is high with the wind forecast this weekend. Confidence
is medium with the potential for critical fire weather conditions over
the weekend. Confidence is low in most areas and medium northeast
on the chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

Lowered min RH somewhat on Saturday with blending the HREF in
with the NBM. Increased the thunderstorm possibility in the NE on
Saturday as the models have a somewhat unstable atmosphere.


&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED: 0800Z, Friday morning, June 6th

FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR

DISCUSSION:  Mostly clear skies are expected this morning with
some daytime cumulus and high clouds expected this afternoon. Mid
level clouds are expected tonight with a cold front around 12z
Saturday.

WINDS: South to SE 5 to 10 knots this morning veering SW 10
to 15 knots this afternoon and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots this
evening. Winds will become NW 10 to 20 knots after 12z Saturday
with a cold front.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty NW winds behind a cold front will combine with low RH on
Saturday to create the possibility for critical fire weather
mainly in zones 120 and 134. Green up has been limited over the
western half of zone 120 and most of zone 134 with a dry spring.
There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday but the
chance of wetting rain will be less than 10 percent. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for zones 120 and 134 which includes
most of NE Montana north of the Missouri River for Saturday
afternoon and evening.

Low RH and gusty NW winds are expected again on Sunday with the
possibility of critical fire weather conditions especially north
of the Missouri River.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan
Counties-Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow