682
FXUS65 KGGW 172031
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
231 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms south of the
  Missouri River tonight.

- A building ridge will push temperatures to near 100 or higher
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Southwest flow aloft streaming into Montana today with building
ridge over the Rockies. Dry line feature has moved closer to the
North Dakota border with dew points in the 50s across the western
portion of the CWA compared to the 60s to the east. Little else in
the way of surface features, so convection already over the
southwest mountains will rely on midlevel instability to maintain
strength over the plains this evening. Still could see some strong
wind gusts with collapsing storms, especially with the drier low
levels. Storm chances for Monday have decreased with drier
airmass.

Upper ridge will peak over Montana on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperature forecast continues to climb in the guidance with some
areas near 100 for highs on Tuesday and many areas above 100 for
highs on Wednesday. With low temperatures for Tuesday night also
remaining in the mid to upper 60s, the likelihood of needing
extreme heat products for Tuesday and Wednesday is becoming
likely.

A cold front Wednesday night and Thursday will bring much cooler
temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Main forecast deviation from the NBM was pops tonight and Monday
for slightly higher probabilities.

Confidence is moderate that there will be isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms at times tonight.

Low confidence in thunderstorm chances on Monday.

Confidence is high in very hot temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday which will exceed 100 degrees in some areas.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
tonight. Low clouds may develop again over the TAF sides overnight
which cloud drop ceilings to MVFR, however there has been some
drier air working into the region will could limit clouds to along
the North Dakota border.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow