164
FXUS65 KGGW 050828
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
228 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue at times today.

2) An area of thunderstorms will move east across the area late
this afternoon and tonight. Some severe storms will be possible
mainly along and south of US Highway 2.

3) Hot weather will return Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the
90s to near 100.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
An upper trough will move across western and central Montana
today and eastern Montana tonight. A surface low will move east
along the MT/WY border which will combine with an unstable
atmosphere and strong wind shear for showers and thunderstorms at
times with some storms becoming severe. SPC currently has a Slight
Risk for severe weather over most of eastern Montana, along and
south of the Missouri river. The best chance for severe storms
will be this afternoon and evening across the region.

While the trough moves to the east on Sunday, chances for showers
and thunderstorms will linger mainly along the Canadian and North
Dakota borders.

Warmer temperatures return next week and highs will be in the 90s
in most areas Tuesday and Wednesday with an upper ridge over the
area. A mainly dry and weak cold front Wednesday night and
Thursday will cool highs somewhat on Thursday and Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

High confidence that there will be showers and thunderstorms at
times today and tonight with low confidence on timing any storms
and rainfall amounts. High confidence on the heat returning on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Adjusted pops at times today and tonight to provide better hour to
hour consistency. No other changes to the NBM at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0820Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR most of the time. Areas of MVFR possible in
storms.

DISCUSSION: There will be varying levels of mid and high clouds
over NE Montana today and a mix of mid and low clouds tonight.
There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms at times today
and tonight. A few storms this afternoon and tonight could have
wind gusts that exceed 50 knots with large hail.
WIND: East to NE 5 to 15 knots this morning becoming east this
afternoon. Winds will become variable tonight at 5 to 10 knots.
Gusty and erratic winds are likely near storms.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow