Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
313 FXUS64 KFWD 271737 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1237 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory has been extended through 8 PM tomorrow for most of North Texas and eastern Central Texas where heat index readings could reach up to 109. - Hot and rain-free weather will persist through the week with little relief in sight, and additional Heat Advisories or possibly Extreme Heat Warnings may be needed. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Another hot, humid, and dry day across North and Central Texas thanks to a large upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Texas Panhandle. Temperatures are already in the low to mid 90s and should heat up a couple degrees warmer than yesterday`s readings, with highs reaching 97-103. No significant changes are expected through tomorrow with the upper ridge moving only slightly westward, so in coordination with surrounding offices, went ahead and extended the Heat Advisory for North Texas and eastern Central Texas through 8pm Tuesday evening. Also added in Robertson County to the Heat Advisory to better match with HGX. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Little change in the overall weather pattern is anticipated for Wednesday and Thursday as the large upper ridge remains entrenched across the Texas Panhandle and New Mexico, and even strengthens some into Friday. Therefore, expect continued high temperatures in the 97-103 range for Wednesday/Thursday and a nudge upward to 98-104 on Friday. We will likely have to extend the current Heat Advisory through all three of these days, and possibly expand it to additional counties in Central Texas. An Extreme Heat Warning may even be needed for parts of North Texas on Thursday and especially on Friday as heat index readings peak in the 110-115 range. This appears more likely on Friday as low level moisture pools ahead of an approaching weak backdoor cold front moving through the region on Friday night - similar to what happened last week. Over the weekend into early next week, 12Z guidance continues the trend of shifting the upper ridge westward into Nevada/California, with northerly flow setting up across North and Central Texas. This will allow the backdoor cold front mentioned above to shift southward through the region, and some slightly "cooler air" for Saturday and Sunday. Don`t get too excited though as highs will only drop a few degrees into the mid 90s to low 100s. The airmass behind the front will be drier, however, with dewpoints dropping into the 60s and even the 50s. This should help briefly end our long string of Heat Advisories. However, global models show the upper ridge building once again across the Southern Plains next week, so our temperatures and humidity will be on the way up as we move further into the first week of August. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with just a few cirrus clouds and maybe a stray cumulus cloud, along with south winds around 10 knots. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 102 81 102 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 77 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 77 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 79 102 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 79 102 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 82 103 82 102 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 77 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 77 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 75 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 76 103 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 116>123-131>135-146>148-162. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger