173
FXUS64 KFWD 150006
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
706 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-average temperatures will continue through the end of the
  week.

- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday through Sunday with some
  potential for severe weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

Higher humidity and dense high cloud cover kept widespread
record-breaking temperatures from occurring this afternoon. It is
still hot out there this evening, though, with heat indices in
the upper 90s to near 105 degrees. A warm, muggy night is
expected tonight with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. A few
high- based showers will be possible during the overnight ahead of
a compact mid-level shortwave. Very little measurable
precipitation will make it to the ground.

A cold front will approach our northwestern counties early
Thursday morning, generally after 7AM, and stall near a Paris-
Midlothian-Lampasas line by mid-afternoon. This will offer a
reprieve from the heat for many across North Texas with forecast
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s north of I-20. Locations south
of I-20 will likely inch into the low to mid 90s tomorrow
afternoon. A few high-based showers and potentially even a couple
elevated thunderstorms will be possible during the morning along
and behind the frontal boundary. There is a low risk (less than
20% chance) for a couple strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening as
the front shifts toward the I-35 corridor. This threat is quite
conditional, with less of a cap and better ascent displaced to
our northeast. If thunderstorms do develop along and ahead of the
aforementioned boundary, convective initiation will most likely
take place in the 2-6PM timeframe. Isolated large hail would be
the primary hazards in any stronger storms.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1242 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025/
Update:

Dryline activity will begin to ramp up as early as Friday
afternoon and evening, although overall coverage of showers and
thunderstorms appears lowest on this day. Regardless, slightly
increased shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected
starting at the end of this week, picking up through the weekend
on both Saturday and Sunday. Strong capping is likely to limit any
activity to a brief window through the afternoon and evening each
day over the weekend as well. The best forcing for ascent still
appears to be over the weekend, with conditional potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms. The main threat for any
thunderstorms that manage to develop will be large hail and
damaging winds, with a low but non-zero tornado threat on
Saturday. This slightly more active weather period may continue
into the start of next week, and will be worth watching.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Thursday Night through Tuesday/

A dryline should be positioned across our western counties during
the day Friday as a shortwave trough spreads out of the Central
Plains into the Midwest. A trailing cold front will extend
southwestward and should be draped near the Red River during this
time, but will likely be ill-defined and may not serve as much of
a focus for convective development. Weak synoptic scale ascent is
likely to be present, but persistent southwest winds aloft will
advect a deep elevated mixed layer eastward resulting in strong
capping across the region. It`s a little uncertain if any
convection will develop during peak heating but there is at least
a some model signal indicating the potential. We`ll keep PoPs at
15-20% Friday afternoon with any storms developing likely becoming
severe in the strongly unstable airmass.

Convection is likely to be a little more widespread on Saturday as
an embedded shortwave ejects out of the Desert Southwest and into
the Southern Plains. With the dryline expected to make a push a
little farther eastward, modest forcing for ascent and strong
afternoon heating should weaken the cap sufficiently for scattered
severe thunderstorms to develop. Uniformly weak low level wind
fields and relatively high LCLs suggest a low tornado threat, but
strong deep layer shear, steep lapse rates, and strong instability
indicate the potential for large hail and a few instances of
damaging winds will be possible. Coverage of afternoon/evening
storms is expected to be 30-40%.

A similar setup is expected on Sunday although weaker synoptic
forcing may keep convection tied closer to the dryline itself and
generally north of I-20 through the late afternoon. A few severe
storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening with PoPs 20-30%. Continued troughing to our
west into early next week will likely keep the dryline active with
periodic severe storms developing during peak heating and
continuing into the late evening hours. We`ll maintain PoPs each
afternoon through Tuesday to account for this activity.

Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above normal
through the weekend with afternoon highs in the lower 90s and
overnight lows in the low 70s.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all North
and Central Texas terminals. Widespread high clouds currently
overspread much of the region. South flow at 10-15 kts will
persist through the overnight into Thursday morning before briefly
shifting out of the west-northwest with the arrival of a cold
front around 16Z-17Z. Winds will quickly shift back out of the
south-southeast by 21Z-22Z Thursday afternoon.

A few high-based showers/virga will be possible during the
overnight and tomorrow morning. Very little measurable
precipitation will reach the ground. We are monitoring a low
chance for a couple strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
along and ahead of the cold front as it pushes toward the I-35
corridor Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm probabilities are
currently less than 20% within the D10 airspace, therefore we will
keep VCTS out of the TAF for now.

Langfeld

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  91  74  93  73 /  10  20  10  10  20
Waco                72  94  74  95  72 /  10   5  10  10  10
Paris               71  87  72  88  69 /  10  20  10  20  20
Denton              71  89  69  93  68 /  10  20  10  10  10
McKinney            72  90  72  91  70 /  10  20  10  10  20
Dallas              75  93  74  94  74 /  10  20  10  10  20
Terrell             71  90  74  91  72 /  10  20  10  10  20
Corsicana           73  92  76  93  75 /   5  10  10  10  10
Temple              72  95  73  96  72 /  10   5   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       70  89  68  96  69 /  10  20   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ145>147-156>162-
174-175.

&&

$$