801
FXUS64 KFWD 111117
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
Issued by National Weather Service Shreveport LA
617 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be an elevated threat for grass fires each afternoon
  this week. Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected on
  Friday with strong west winds and humidity 10-15%.

- There is a threat for a few severe storms east of I-35 on
  Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The current forecast and discussion listed below remain in good
shape this morning. I did make some very minor changes to account
for current trends, but overall the forecast discussion below
explains things very well. Winds this morning are generally out of
the southwest around 5-10 mph and satellite imagery is showing
clear skies across the region.


Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday Evening/

This afternoon will be the beginning of a prolonged period of
above-normal fire weather conditions across North and Central
Texas. With afternoon low relative humidities and breezy
southwesterly winds, the threat for fire starts will be
heightened.

Synoptically, a weak shortwave is currently moving atop our
region, however, given a lack of moisture, no clouds are expected
with this shortwave`s passage. What this shortwave will do,
however, is increase mid-level heights as it departs to our east
this afternoon. The increased heights coupled with breezy
southwesterly winds will translate to afternoon temperatures in
the mid 70s to mid 80s. This will lead to an increased wildfire
threat mainly west of US-281.

For Wednesday, not only will the threat for wildfires continue
west of I-35, but a risk for severe weather will present itself
along east east of I-35. A potent shortwave will glide from west
to east across Oklahoma during the day. This will lead to
increased winds throughout much of the region, along with a
northward moisture migration generally along and east of I-35. The
moisture content gradient will sharpen by the early afternoon,
leading to the development of a dryline that will surge east.
Ahead of the dryline, steep mid-level lapse rates will translate
to nearly 1200 J/kg of instability within a strongly sheared
environment. The main forecast challenge will be whether the
capping inversion erodes through the afternoon or remains in
place. If the warm air aloft is significant enough, it`s possible
thunderstorms don`t develop in our area. However, several of the
short-range guidance suggest there will be enough forcing for
ascent to overcome CIN, producing a few strong to severe
thunderstorms. Should a thunderstorm develop, the main hazards
will be large hail and damaging winds, although a tornado or two
cannot be ruled out.

Now on to the fire weather threat. Behind the dryline, winds
Wednesday afternoon will quickly climb above 20 mph west of I-35
with gusts between 30-35 mph. Concurrent with the strong winds,
relative humidity values will be in the teens west of I-35. This
is likely to set the stage for additional wildfire starts, along
with the potential for the wildfires to spread. As the sun sets
Wednesday night, relative humidity values will begin to rise,
reducing the overall wildfire potential.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 416 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Isolated thunderstorms will push off to the east Wednesday
evening as the shortwave responsible for the convection heads for
the Mississippi Valley. A Pacific front/dryline hybrid should make
it through most of the CWA Wednesday night before stalling,
making for a pleasant night with lows in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

South winds will rapidly return on Thursday as a stronger
shortwave enters the West Coast, inducing lee cyclogenesis along
the Front Range. A mid level ridge between the departing shortwave
and the West Coast system will combine with the return flow to
produce high temperatures in the 80s, with a few Central Texas
spots near 90. The grass fire threat will be somewhat elevated due
to the warm and dry weather, but light winds (5 to 10 MPH) should
mitigate the overall wildfire potential.

The West Coast trough will develop a closed low while moving east
into the Rockies Thursday night. The low will become co-located
with the surface cyclone, and together the stacked system will
lift northeast through the Southern and Central Plains on Friday.
Operational guidance continues to deepen the surface low below
980mb, subsequently creating a tight pressure gradient from Texas
to the Great Lakes. A windy Friday will be the result, with
southwest winds veering to the west as a dryline surges east
through the region. The fire weather threat will likely reach
critical levels along and west of I-35 where the combination of
warm, dry, and windy conditions will create an exceptionally
volatile environment. Higher dewpoints will lessen the threat east
of I-35, with generally improving conditions the farther east you
go.

Convection will likely hold off until a Pacific front overtakes
the dryline in East Texas, though I may stick with low POPs along
the eastern border of the CWA where an isolated storm or two may
occur. Activity will quickly exit to the east Friday evening,
followed by dry and pleasant weather over the weekend behind the
front. Saturday`s temperatures will actually return to near-normal
values, with highs ranging from the upper 60s along the Red River
to the lower and middle 70s across Central Texas. A warm-up will
begin on Sunday and continue through the first part of next week
as ridge redevelops aloft in advance of the yet another developing
trough to the west.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

Satellite imagery is showing clear skies across our region this
morning and surface observations are reporting southerly winds
throughout. These conditions are expected to prevail through the
majority of this TAF period. While winds remain generally light
this morning, they will increase by around 11/17z with sustained
winds around 14-18 kts and gusts around 27 kts for all TAF sites.
Winds are expected to gradually subside after sunset with
sustained winds around 10 kts.

33

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  55  81  55  85 /   0   0   5   0   0
Waco                80  55  82  54  85 /   0   0   5   0   0
Paris               77  52  74  49  79 /   0   0  20  10   0
Denton              80  52  80  49  84 /   0   0   5   0   0
McKinney            78  53  78  50  82 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dallas              80  56  80  55  84 /   0   0   5   0   0
Terrell             77  53  77  52  82 /   0   0  10   5   0
Corsicana           79  56  80  55  85 /   0   0  10   5   0
Temple              81  54  85  54  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       85  52  85  51  88 /   0   0   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$