Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
451 FXUS64 KFWD 172313 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 613 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory has been extended for portions of North and Central Texas through 8 PM Monday. - Hot and humid conditions along with daily low storm chances are forecast through Tuesday. - Slightly higher storm chances (30-60% chance) and below normal temperatures are forecast during the mid to late week period. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 111 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025/ /Through Tuesday Night/ The heat, humidity, and isolated convection will be the main story through the short-term period. A weak disturbance over our northwestern counties will continue to support additional showers and storms across the northern portions of North Texas through early this evening. Main hazards with this activity will be brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning. While the rain could provide a little bit of heat relief for some, most locations are still expected to see highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices around 105-107 in the advisory area. Similar conditions are expected on Monday with a few showers and storms that could develop as early as the morning hours. While there is a low chance pretty much everywhere, most won`t see any rain with afternoon temperatures still rising to the mid to upper 90s. A few North Texas locations may see highs near 100. Humidity will be highest across the eastern half of the region, therefore the Heat Advisory has been extended one more day. Tuesday will bring another hot and humid day as the upper ridge still influences the region. Highs will be mainly in the upper 90s with heat indices again in the 105-107 range for the eastern half of the area. There are low chances (20-30%) for rain and storms during the day mainly for Central Texas. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 111 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025/ /Wednesday through Next Weekend/ A period of unsettled weather is still in the forecast for the mid to late week period as the mid/upper ridge shifts to our west. This will open the door for shortwaves and a weak cold front to travel south into our area. Not everyone will see rain every day, but at least we will enjoy the slightly cooler temperatures. Highs are expected to stay in the low to mid 90s Thursday through the weekend. Models continue to show Wednesday and Thursday as the days with the best chances for rain (40-60%) as the front moves through the region. No severe weather is expected at this time, but the average rainfall totals are forecast to stay around or less than 1 inch across our region. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ VFR conditions and south winds at 10 kts or less will prevail through tonight. There is a small chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms near the D10 TAF sites tomorrow afternoon, and this will be advertised with a brief VCTS mention. The coverage and placement of this anticipated diurnally driven convection remain quite uncertain at this time. Even removed from thunderstorm activity, outflow winds could result in temporary erratic wind shifts. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 99 80 99 80 / 10 20 5 10 20 Waco 78 97 77 97 77 / 10 20 5 20 20 Paris 75 99 76 99 75 / 5 20 5 5 20 Denton 77 99 77 100 76 / 10 20 5 10 20 McKinney 77 99 76 99 76 / 10 20 0 10 20 Dallas 81 100 81 101 80 / 10 20 5 10 20 Terrell 76 99 76 99 76 / 10 20 5 10 10 Corsicana 77 98 78 99 77 / 5 20 5 20 10 Temple 75 98 74 98 74 / 10 20 10 30 20 Mineral Wells 75 98 75 99 74 / 10 20 5 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ093>095-103>107- 118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175. && $$