797
FXUS64 KFWD 132353
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
653 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record-breaking heat is expected tomorrow, with many areas
  expected to reach 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon.

- Thunderstorm chances return this weekend, and some severe
  weather is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Little has changed to the short-term forecast. Only grid edits
made were to lower high temperatures 2-3 degrees for Wednesday
afternoon due to the increasing potential for scattered high cloud
cover. We are still expecting widespread record-breaking heat
tomorrow with many locations reaching 100 degrees south of I-20
and along/west of I-35, including the Metroplex. A Heat Advisory
will go into effect at noon tomorrow for several Central Texas
counties and continue through Wednesday evening. Locations in the
Heat Advisory will see heat indices top out near 105 degrees
tomorrow afternoon. Stay cool and take the proper precautions to
keep you and your loved ones safe from heat-related illnesses,
especially since this is the first taste of summer this year!

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday Night/

The well advertised warm-up will be underway starting today as
temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s across our east and
upper 90s across our west. A few locations in western Central
Texas will likely hit the 100 degree mark this afternoon under
full sun with gusty southwesterly winds upwards of 30 mph.
Thankfully our surface moisture remains relatively limited with
dew points mixing out into the 40s and 50s where the hottest
temperatures reside. This will keep our heat indices below 100
degrees for much of the region. This warm-up can be mainly
attributed to large scale subsidence across the region as the
Southern Plains is currently sandwiched between two upper level
lows on either side of the country. This will also keep weather
conditions dry through the short term period with some clouds.

More widespread heat with several locations reaching the triple
digit mark can be expected through Wednesday afternoon with the
entirety of North and Central Texas at least in the mid 90s. A
couple of locations across our southern Central Texas counties
will approach heat indices of 105 degrees, and with it being early
on in the season, we decided to go ahead and issue a Heat
Advisory. It`s a good idea to start thinking about heat safety. Be
sure to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in the shade,
and limit strenuous activities within peak heating hours.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1232 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025/
Update:

No major changes were made to the long term forecast with the
previous discussion capturing the main highlights through the end
of the week and over the weekend. Warm temperatures will continue
with highs in the 90s most days. Low chances for showers and
thunderstorms return late Friday, with better chances for isolated
to scattered severe weather over the upcoming weekend.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Thursday through Monday/

After a bout of record breaking heat on Tuesday and Wednesday, our
mid level ridge axis will begin to slowly shift eastward by
Thursday. It`ll still be warm with high temperatures in the low to
mid 90s thanks to continued southwest flow above the surface, but
the upper pattern will become more amplified over the western
CONUS by late Thursday. A fast moving shortwave will spread into
the Central Plains during this time and a weak cold front will
slide southward through the Southern Plains, becoming nearly
stationary across North Texas by Friday. While strong capping will
likely inhibit storm development initially, there is a low chance
for a storm to develop during peak heating Friday afternoon along
this boundary. A strongly unstable airmass will be in place, but
wind fields will generally be weak suggesting that organized
severe weather is unlikely. We`ll keep PoPs at 20% or less Friday
afternoon.

Better chances for storms will arrive on Saturday and Sunday
afternoons as another disturbance spreads out of the Desert
Southwest and into the Plains. A dryline should be draped across
our western counties by early afternoon and will serve as a focus
for thunderstorm development through peak heating. This setup will
be more typical of our Spring severe weather season with strong
instability and increasing deep layer shear ahead of the
approaching disturbance. Thunderstorm chances will be 30-40% both
days with the potential for severe weather. Coverage of storms is
expected to be highest across the northern half of the CWA closer
to the dryline and better forcing for ascent to the north. The
active pattern will continue through the middle part of next week
with additional storm chances and instances of severe weather
possible on Monday.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all North
and Central Texas terminals. Expect breezy south-southwest surface
winds through Wednesday and intermittent high clouds streaming
overhead. A strengthening west-southwesterly low-level jet will
likely lead to at least minor LLWS issues over the D10 terminals
later tonight into Wednesday morning.

Langfeld

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  99  75  93  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
Waco                74 101  74  97  74 /   0   0   5   5   5
Paris               70  95  72  88  68 /   5   0   0   5   5
Denton              65  98  70  90  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
McKinney            69  97  72  91  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
Dallas              72 100  75  94  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
Terrell             71  97  72  92  71 /   0   0   0   5   5
Corsicana           74  98  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              72 102  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       66 100  69  93  66 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ156>160-174-
175.

&&

$$