499
FXUS64 KFWD 281747
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1247 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue today into next week
  with highs well into the 90s. Afternoon heat indices will rise
  into the lower 100s in many areas each afternoon.

- There is a chance of mainly afternoon storms, Monday through
  Wednesday of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Sunday Afternoon/

An overall tranquil, but warm and humid weekend is unfolding
across much of North and Central Texas as high pressure dominates
much of the Southern Plains. Afternoon highs are expected to peak
in the 90s region-wide. Persistently high dewpoints in the 60s
and 70s will push afternoon heat index values into the mid 90s to
around 103 today. Similar to the previous days, there is a very
low chance (< 15%) for some isolated showers and storms this
afternoon. The more favored locations for any afternoon
development are areas north of I-20 near a lingering diffuse
outflow boundary and in far southern Central Texas as the coastal
sea-breeze boundary moves inland. There is still a bit of
uncertainty as to whether anything will truly get going in our
area as large-scale lift remains quite nebulous, but have
introduced low 10% PoPs into the gridded forecast this afternoon
in the aforementioned areas. We`ll continue to monitor for any
necessary increases in PoPs over this afternoon. Any activity will
be diurnally-driven, and will wane with the loss of daytime
heating. Overnight conditions will remain warm and humid, with
Sunday morning lows remaining in the 70s.

Sunday will be much of the same as temperatures peak in the 90s
and heat indices rise up to 103 once again. Slightly better
chances for sea-breeze showers and storms are expected across our
southern Central Texas zones tomorrow afternoon. Severe weather is
not expected with any of today or tomorrow`s activity, though any
stronger storm will be capable of gusty, erratic winds, brief
heavy rain, and lightning. If you have outside activities, remain
weather aware as even nearby storms could impact your location.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 301 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/
/Next Week/

The main weather feature in the long term will continue to be a
persistent mid level ridge, which will provide seasonably hot days
and warm, humid nights to all of North and Central Texas next
week. That being said, the ridge will contain enough weaknesses
to provide a few days of rain chances, particularly during the
first half of the week when an unseasonably strong shortwave
trough will drop southeast from the Northern Plains to the Ohio
Valley. This brief pattern shift will nudge the stationary front
(currently over Oklahoma) southward across the Red River late
Monday into Tuesday. Very little in the way of a temperature drop
is expected with the front, but low level convergence along the
boundary should be enough to generate isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

The best rain chances will be over North Texas nearest the front,
with 10-20 POPs extending south through Central Texas where a few
outflow/seabreeze interactions may occur. Severe weather is
unlikely, but small hail and gusty winds will accompany the
stronger storms. Rain/storm chances should be fairly equal both
Monday and Tuesday, but will decrease and shift east on Wednesday
as the ridge strengthens over Texas and the Southern Plains,
shunting convection into our East Texas counties.

Model guidance now advertises a disturbance along Mexico`s
Pacific coast (perhaps the remnants of a tropical cyclone) lifting
north across Mexico into the Big Country Thursday and Friday.
Despite the strengthening ridge, the subtle weakness aloft
generated by this disturbance warrants "slight chance" POPs both
Thursday and Friday, as isolated thunderstorms will again be
possible. Though most folks should remain rain-free for Friday the
4th, that 10-20% chance precludes the "all clear" message for
Friday`s outdoor events at this time.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Southerly winds and VFR conditions will prevail over the next
24-30 hours at all TAF sites. Similar to previous days, expect
a Cu field to develop across the region this afternoon, with
clouds around 5-6 kft. Very isolated showers and storms will be
possible either north of I-20 or across southern Central Texas
this afternoon. If a storm were to get going, any stronger cell
could produce gusty, erratic winds, lightning, and brief heavy
rain. Ultimately, coverage will remain quite spotty and should
preclude much of an impact to the airports. Will continue to keep
an eye on satellite and radar trends and amend as needed.

MVFR stratus is expected to move into Central Texas tomorrow
morning, but probability of impacting ACT is low enough to keep
out of the TAF at this time. If ACT were to be impacted by low
cigs, the best time frame would be between 12-15Z.

Prater

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  78  96  78  95 /   5   0   0   0  20
Waco                93  75  95  75  94 /   0   0   0   0  20
Paris               92  75  93  75  93 /  10   0   5   0  30
Denton              95  76  97  76  96 /  10   0   0   0  30
McKinney            95  77  95  77  95 /  10   0   0   0  20
Dallas              96  78  97  78  98 /   5   0   0   0  20
Terrell             93  75  95  75  95 /   0   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           94  75  94  76  95 /   5   0   5   0  20
Temple              94  73  95  74  95 /   0   0   5   0  20
Mineral Wells       97  75  97  75  97 /   5   0   0   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$