Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
800 FXUS64 KFWD 021031 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 531 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms will continue today, mainly across eastern portions of North and Central Texas. - One or more thunderstorm complexes could affect portions of the area tonight into Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning, before seasonably hot and dry weather resumes next week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025/ /Through Sunday Night/ A stalled frontal boundary, coupled with a slow moving elevated shortwave, will continue to lead to a few showers and storms through this morning across eastern parts of North and Central Texas. Given a relative minimum in instability, the expectation is for all storms this morning to remain sub-severe. However, plentiful moisture remains in place, yielding efficient rainfall producing storms that may lead to temporary ponding or minor flooding. A gradual southward push of the front is expected through the early morning hours as the ridge to our west continues to break down. The weakening influence of the ridge will establish a more north/northwesterly flow aloft, driving the front south of our region by this afternoon. Afternoon daytime heating will once again lead to showers and storms mainly across Central and East Texas with overall thunderstorm coverage expected to range between 20-40%. Rainfall totals, on average, will be under half an inch. Rain chances will diminish from northwest to southeast late this afternoon as dry air pushes in from north/northeast. Tonight will remain dry with overnight temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Tonight, the ridge to our west will amplify and lead to a shortwave arriving in North Texas around sunrise Sunday. An axis of elevated moisture will likely promote a complex of thunderstorms migrating southeast from the Texas Panhandle. The overall expectation is for this thunderstorm complex to gradually decay over North Texas as the main source of lift shifts east across Oklahoma. Rain chances Sunday morning will remain below 40% and confined to areas west of I-35. Heading into Sunday night, lee cyclogenesis is looking likely across the Texas Panhandle. As the surface low develops, winds will become southeasterly with an influx in low-level moisture across the region. Forcing for ascent will steadily increase as a mid-level shortwave emerges out of the higher NM terrain. The ingredients will come together Sunday night for a thunderstorm complex to develop across the Texas Panhandle and migrate to the southeast into North Texas. A stronger wind profile will lead to higher effective shear, increasing the potential for strong to isolated damaging winds along the leading edge of the thunderstorm complex. The exact location of where the storms will develop remains uncertain, however, steering flow would suggest storms will move southeast, arriving in North Texas Sunday night or early Monday morning. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025/ /Monday Onward/ The new work week will begin with a continuation of the unsettled weather pattern that is now in place atop our region. With a shortwave over North Texas Monday morning, additional showers and storms chances will linger through much of the day. This shortwave will shift into southeast Texas by Monday evening, transitioning our region into a drier pattern starting on Tuesday. The ridge to our west will gradually expand eastward through the middle of this week. This eastward expansion will not only shut off rain chances, but turn the heat up as temperatures return to slightly above normal values. By Thursday, North Texas will be in the upper 90s to 102 degrees while Central Texas stays in the mid 90s. Lingering surface moisture, coupled with hot temperatures, will yield heat index values in the 100-107 range starting Wednesday and lingering through next weekend. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR skies and northern winds are ongoing across North and Central Texas TAF sites. The potential for MVFR skies will increase after sunrise as low-level moisture resides around 15,000 ft AGL. The MVFR ceiling will persist through around 16z before dissipating, leaving behind scattered VFR clouds. Winds will continue to be out of the northeast through the morning hours with an easterly shift this afternoon. The easterly winds will persist through the rest of the forecast cycle with wind speeds generally below 6 kts. Regarding precipitation chances, the greatest potential for storms will be east of the D10 airspace where higher moisture content resides. Although there is a low (less than 20%) chance of a shower or storm this afternoon in D10, timing and location uncertainties persist therefore, no mention of precipitation will be included in the 12z TAFs. Any afternoon storms will come to an end closer to sunset, leaving behind VFR and easterly winds through Sunday morning. Hernandez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 75 93 73 90 / 10 0 10 30 40 Waco 93 74 94 75 89 / 20 5 10 30 40 Paris 87 68 88 69 88 / 30 0 5 20 30 Denton 91 72 93 70 90 / 10 0 20 40 40 McKinney 89 71 90 70 89 / 20 0 10 30 40 Dallas 92 75 93 73 91 / 20 0 10 30 40 Terrell 90 72 91 71 90 / 30 5 5 30 40 Corsicana 93 74 95 73 92 / 30 5 5 20 50 Temple 95 74 95 75 92 / 30 5 10 20 40 Mineral Wells 95 72 96 71 92 / 10 0 20 40 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$