181
FXUS64 KFWD 230005
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
705 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are expected to continue across western portions of North
  and Central Texas through late this evening. Some storms could
  become severe. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
  threats.

- Following seasonably hot and humid days on Friday and Saturday,
  more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected along a
  cold front from Sunday evening into Monday.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through most of next
  week with continued low rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening Through Friday Night/

As of 7 PM this evening, the radarscope shows two severe storms in
our area, as well as scattered dryline convection to our west.
The outflow boundary that was shunted south from our early
afternoon Red River convection has stalled and washed out around
the I-20 corridor, with easterly winds near and north of the
boundary and south-southeast winds to the south of it. Any
discrete storm will remain an all-hazards threat as long as it
remains near or south of this boundary, while those to the north
of the boundary are primarily a hail/wind threat. While CAM
guidance has not handled this activity with much grace, there is a
general model trend that the dryline-originating storms will move
south-southeast across our western counties tonight. As this
activity advances to the east/southeast over this evening, upscale
growth into clusters is expected, transitioning the primary
threat to damaging winds and frequent lightning with occasional
large hail in the stronger cores.

Moving a bit further to the I-35 corridor and areas east: The
aforementioned stalled-out boundary, along with any additional
outflow boundaries from the storms out west, will have an
implication on convective development within North Texas and the
DFW Metroplex later this evening. Latest ACARS from KDAL soundings
show a cap back in place around 800-850 mb. However, there is
still enough instability above this cap to produce additional
isolated elevated convection through the evening hours. Overall,
there will remain a low potential for strong to severe storms with
any elevated cell that is able to get going, with a lightning and
hail threat. We`ll continue to keep an eye on this potential and
adjust where necessary. With this latest forecast update, have
confined higher PoPs across our western counties, with a low
chance remaining across DFW and the I-35 corridor overnight.

Any activity this evening will advance south overnight and
eventually exit to our south/southwest early Friday morning. A
much quieter day is in store to end out this work week and the
school year for many kiddos, as upper level ridging builds overtop
the Southern Plains. Expect a warm and humid day, with afternoon
highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Dewpoints mainly in the 60s will
aid in pushing peak heat indices into the mid-upper 90s those
south of US-380. Make sure to drink plenty of water if spending
excess time outdoors!

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 128 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025/
/Friday Night Onward/

Warm and humid weather will continue into the first half of
Memorial Day weekend, with highs in the 90s. Quite a few locations
will see heat index values top 100 degrees, but fortunately,
we`ll remain comfortably below Heat Advisory criteria. Rain-free
weather will prevail, but there is a low (20% chance) a complex
of storms to our north will clip areas near and immediately along
the Red River Saturday night.

Chances for showers and storms will return on Sunday as a cold
front approaches the area and will continue into Monday. Deep
layer shear won`t be particularly favorable for organized severe
storms, but we can`t entirely rule out a few strong to severe
storms capable of producing hail and gusty winds. An increased
threat for flooding will likely be the main threat with these
rounds of storms, especially Sunday night into Monday morning.
Ensure you monitor the forecast over the next few days for the
latest information.

The front will move through the region on Monday but will likely
stall somewhere across the forecast area. This will set the stage
for daily chances for showers and storms throughout the week as a
series of upper level disturbances move overhead. Cooler
temperatures are expected for much of next week, with high
temperatures in the 70s to low 80s on a daily basis.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

E-SE winds will prevail at the TAF sites until later this evening
when clusters of storms and an accompanying surface boundary are
expected to move nearby the airports, promoting erratic winds that
will eventually shift NE through the morning. VCTS is expected
near D10 between 02-05Z with a tight window of potential TSRA
impacts between 03-04Z. The scope of direct terminal impacts
remains uncertain as the majority of the storms will remain to the
west/southwest of the airports, and the TEMPO TSRA may need to be
removed. Nonetheless, if a thunderstorm develops east enough to
impact the terminal, the main threat will be strong winds, hail,
and frequent lightning. ACT will observe VCTS later between
06-09Z. After the storms move to the south/southwest, winds will
shift to northeast through mid morning before returning to the SE
over the rest of the period.

There is low potential for patchy BR near daybreak tomorrow
thanks to light winds, but this scenario is uncertain as much
guidance keeps the region too dry and NBM probabilities remain
low. We will keep an eye on this potential and adjust as necessary
overnight.

Prater

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested in western North
Texas this evening. Even if activation is not locally requested,
any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service
are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  91  74  94  75 /  30   5   5   0   5
Waco                70  92  73  94  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
Paris               65  85  71  89  73 /  10  10  10   5  10
Denton              64  90  71  94  72 /  30  10  10   0   5
McKinney            66  89  73  92  73 /  20  10  10   0   5
Dallas              70  92  74  95  75 /  20   5   5   0   5
Terrell             68  90  73  92  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
Corsicana           71  92  74  94  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
Temple              70  94  72  95  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       65  92  71  97  72 /  50   5  10   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091-100>102-115>117-129.

&&

$$