Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
671 FXUS64 KFWD 201106 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 606 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for parts of the area through 7 PM this evening. - Rain chances will increase today as a weak cold front pushes through the region. - This weekend will be rain-free before a strong cold front brings low rain chances and below-normal temperatures to the region early next week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 246 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025/ /Through Thursday/ The remnants of the thunderstorms that developed along the cold front in Oklahoma stalled just north of the Red River, but its outflow continues to surge south and has moved into the Metroplex. Behind this boundary, a few isolated storms have slipped southward into adjacent areas of North Texas, warranting an expansion of low rain chances north of the Metroplex through the pre-dawn hours. The CAMs have so far handled the ongoing activity poorly, repeatedly showing rapid dissipation despite its persistence, so confidence in the exact longevity of this activity is lower than normal. Given observed trends, expect the outflow and any existing storms to continue to carry a threat for gusty winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy downpours for the next few hours. As the morning progresses, the slowing boundary and any surviving cold pools should intersect the richer low-level theta-e axis over the region. This will support renewed convective development around or shortly after sunrise, initially near the Red River then gradually spreading south as daytime heating begins. Storm coverage will increase through late morning and the afternoon as the boundary sags south and interacts with mesoscale outflows and deeper moisture. The favored corridor for scattered storms will shift south of I-20 by peak heating as the front/outflow drifts into Central Texas while weak ascent persist aloft. Shear will remain too weak for organized severe weather through the period. The main hazards will be frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, pockets of strong outflow winds, and locally heavy rain from slow moving showers and storms. Brief nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out in urban and poor-drainage areas, particularly where cells merge or train. Activity should wane after sunset with a diurnal minimum in coverage likely Wednesday night. By Thursday, the front will become more ill-defined, but lingering outflow and differential heating boundaries will serve as focal points for renewed convective initiation during the afternoon. Weak background ascent on the periphery of the ridge and convective temperatures in the mid 90s should be sufficient for additional storms, most numerous across Central and East Texas. Overall storm motions will remain slow, so the same hazards apply as Wednesday. Most showers and storms should diminish or push south of the area Thursday night. Despite episodic cloud cover and storm outflows, heat also remains a concern today with highs still in the mid to upper 90s. The combined heat and humidity will once again push peak heat indices into the 100 to 109 degree range prior to any convective cooling. The current configuration and timing of the Heat Advisory generally remains representative of the primary areas with heat concerns for this afternoon. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 246 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025/ /Thursday Night through next Monday/ Any lingering Thursday evening thunderstorm activity should fade with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will trend drier and a bit less convectively active as weak surface ridging noses in behind the fading boundary while the mid-level ridge re-centers over the Desert Southwest. By the weekend, a stronger longwave trough digs from central Canada towards the Great Lakes, turning flow aloft more northwesterly over the Southern Plains and driving a second, more substantial late August cold front southward. Rain chances and at least a modest cool down look to accompany the front. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR prevails. Forecast confidence on timing/coverage of TSRA is low given last night`s poor model performance and the presence of multiple lingering outflow boundaries left behind by earlier storms. There are two possible scenarios for today: (1) scattered storms redevelop across North Texas this morning on the boundary (this is in addition to the TS complex that has already developed in southwest Oklahoma), or (2) initiation holds off until late morning or early afternoon as the boundary drifts into Central Texas, leaving a low (10-20% chance) for only isolated cells near D10. With TSRA along the Red River already generating another outflow boundary that is pushing into North Texas, VCTS will be maintained for the Metroplex TAF sites for mid-morning to early afternoon (14-18Z). Brief erratic wind gusts and shifts may occur in the vicinity of any storms that develop; otherwise winds will vary between northerly and easterly at around 5-10 kts through the period. This afternoon, the focus of convective activity will begin to shift south through the region with greater storm potential at ACT through at least 00Z. 12 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 97 77 95 76 95 / 20 20 20 10 5 Waco 96 75 94 74 94 / 50 30 40 20 20 Paris 96 74 94 72 93 / 30 20 20 5 0 Denton 98 74 96 73 96 / 20 20 20 5 5 McKinney 98 74 95 73 95 / 20 20 20 5 5 Dallas 98 78 97 77 95 / 30 30 20 10 5 Terrell 98 74 94 73 94 / 30 30 20 10 5 Corsicana 97 75 95 73 95 / 50 30 30 20 10 Temple 98 74 96 73 95 / 40 40 50 30 30 Mineral Wells 97 72 96 71 95 / 40 20 20 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102>107- 118>123-133>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$