Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
687 FXUS64 KFWD 161039 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 539 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms will continue today, with the highest rain chances along and west of I-35. Heavy rainfall will be the primary concern, and a few strong storms may also produce gusty downburst winds. - Isolated showers and storms remain possible on Friday with coverage of 20% or less. - Drier and hotter conditions are expected this weekend into next week with temperatures returning into the 90s and lower-100s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Another day of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity lies ahead with the main contributer being the slow-moving upper low now situated across West Texas and the Trans Pecos. This feature has been responsible for the past several days of active weather and exceptional rainfall totals across much of the state, but its influence on our weather locally will gradually begin to diminish during the course of the short term forecast period as it continues to retrograde westward along the southern periphery of the mid-level ridge axis. Subtle impulses pivoting about the upper low will contribute to redevelopment of convective activity within the CWA today, especially during the daytime when aided by moderate diurnal destabilization. Rain chances will be highest along and west of the I-35 corridor in closer proximity to the upper low`s center, while very weak height rises begin to shut these chances down across East Texas in the presence of modest subsidence. While our environment locally does remain fairly tropical in nature with PW values of 1.7-1.9", the slightly more mid-latitude thermodynamic profiles present today characterized by drier mid-level air could contribute to more prevalent lightning activity in comparison to the past couple of days, and may also result in a higher potential for downburst wind gusts. Some cells will also likely display transient rotation given the strong environmental vorticity present through the column. While there will be a slim chance for a thunderstorm to attempt to produce a brief tornado or tropical funnel, this potential is too low to warrant a more formal advertisement in the forecast at this time, and the higher chance for this to occur will remain west/southwest of the CWA. While the majority of precipitation will wane with loss of heating this evening, weak dynamic ascent near the upper low could sustain rain showers across our western zones overnight. Friday looks to be the final day of mentionable rain chances in the forecast as mid-level ridging becomes more pronounced across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley. With modest height rises in place, it is unlikely that convective coverage on Friday would surpass more than about 20% within the CWA with most areas remaining rain- free. Less cloud cover will also allow temperatures to begin a gradual return to near seasonal normals following a few days of below normal temperatures. Low/mid 90s highs can be expected for a majority of the forecast area to end the workweek. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 The building mid-level ridge axis heading into the weekend will bring rain chances to an end for the remainder of the forecast period while temperatures return to near or above normal. The upper low will still remain nearby on Saturday which will offer some residual cloud cover to temper daytime highs to an extent. However, we`ll lose its influence entirely by Sunday when highs will return to the upper 90s with heat index values up to 105. The upper ridge will overspread much of the central CONUS through the entirety of next week, and this will lead to one of the hottest stretches of the summer so far this year with little/no chance for rain through the extended forecast period. Expect highs in the upper 90s and triple digits to prevail through most of the workweek with heat index values ranging from 100-107 each day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 MVFR stratus near 2 kft will intermittently result in cigs at most of the TAF sites for the first few hours of the forecast period this morning before this low deck gradually clears after ~15z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will slowly spread towards the TAF sites from the west later this morning, with a couple periods of nearby convection possible during the daytime. TS impacts could occur from late morning through midday, and perhaps again late this afternoon and evening, and a couple short windows of VCTS will be advertised at the D10 airports to highlight this potential. Convective activity near the airports should wane after sunset. Outside of convective outflow boundaries, a southeast wind around 10 kts will prevail. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 74 92 76 / 50 20 20 10 Waco 87 73 90 74 / 40 20 20 10 Paris 88 72 90 74 / 20 10 20 0 Denton 90 73 92 74 / 50 20 20 10 McKinney 88 73 90 75 / 30 20 20 10 Dallas 90 75 93 77 / 40 20 20 10 Terrell 89 73 91 74 / 30 10 20 10 Corsicana 91 75 93 75 / 40 20 20 0 Temple 87 73 90 74 / 40 20 20 0 Mineral Wells 87 70 90 71 / 70 30 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley