Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
795 FXUS64 KFWD 152318 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 518 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog Monday morning could lead to a temporary reduction in visibility. - Warm and dry conditions will increase the potential for fire starts across western North and Central Texas Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 As yesterday`s system pulls away from the region, the remaining cloud cover will continue shifting eastward, leaving clear to mostly clear skies across much of North and Central Texas. A northerly breeze will persist between 10-15 mph with gusts closer to 20 mph through the rest of the afternoon. Heading into tonight, the potential for fog will increase as winds gradually subside, skies remain clear and radiational cooling yields temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. The extent of the fog may be limited if a few high clouds move overhead, however, the expectation is for the high clouds to remain sparse. Any fog that does develop will erode by the mid-morning hours, allowing for the return of clear skies overhead. With southerly winds in place, temperatures will be in the 70s with a few spots approaching 80s degrees near Graham/Breckenridge. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Tranquil sensible weather is expected across North and Central Texas for much of next week. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. The main weather related impact will be the increased potential for fire starts starting Tuesday, continuing through Thursday. As an upper level trough digs across West Texas, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to breezy weather each day. With westerly to southwesterly winds in place across West Texas, a sharp gradient between the West Texas dry air and slight more moist air across North Texas will develop. The location of this gradient will dictate the areas with the highest risk for fires each day. On Tuesday, the highest threat will likely remain just to northwest of Bowie to Graham, however, if this dry air has a slightly stronger eastward push, the aforementioned areas will begin to dry more quickly than currently expected in the wake of yesterday`s precipitation. A gradual eastward shift in the dry air is anticipated Wednesday and Thursday, expanding the areas that will be at risk for fire starts. Areas west of this dryline will likely experience minimum relative humidities in the teens to low 20% range along with breezy west to southwesterly winds. A cold front is expected to arrive on Friday, leading to an increase in moisture and slightly cooler temperatures. Low rain chances will return to the region in association with this front, however, significant rainfall is not expected. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 503 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 VFR/SKC currently prevails, with a potential for fog and IFR/LIFR stratus overnight into Monday morning. Northerly post-frontal winds are beginning to decline in speed, and will become nearly calm after 03z this evening. Pockets of fog and low stratus should be able to develop after ~09z, and could result in intermittent category reductions to MVFR/IFR before rapidly improving after 15z. Winds will become light southeasterly in the morning, increasing to around 10 kts in the afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 46 74 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 45 72 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 43 69 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 41 73 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 44 71 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 46 73 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 44 72 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 47 74 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 44 75 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 43 78 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Stalley