Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
181 FXUS64 KFWD 231048 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 548 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - This weekend will be seasonably hot, with low rain chances continuing in Central Texas Saturday afternoon. - A cold front will arrive early next week, bringing below normal temperatures and daily rain chances through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 129 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ /This Weekend/ The broad upper level ridge centered near the Four Corners region continues to extend across the state, though heights are beginning to trend a bit lower as stronger flow organizes to our northeast. The resulting light northeast wind and subsidence favors a largely dry and uneventful Saturday. The only exception to this will be across parts of Central and Southeast Texas where there is a low (less than 20%) chance for a few brief, pulse-type showers or storms during peak heating. Shallow mixing and surface dewpoints in the 60s will keep apparent temperatures mostly below 100 degrees despite highs in the mid to upper 90s. Upstream a cold front currently organizing over the Central Plains will begin to make steady progress southward this weekend as a stronger trough digs into the eastern U.S. Guidance remains consistent that any late Saturday night or Sunday morning complex translating out of the High Plains should remain well north of the Red River, keeping our area dry until early next week. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 129 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ /Next Week/ A pattern change remains favored for next week as the western CONUS ridge relaxes while a broad trough settles over the eastern half of the country. This will place North and Central Texas beneath northwest flow aloft while also allowing the previously mentioned cold front to fully push into the area Monday into Tuesday. Daily rain and storm chances are expected through the end of the week as weak perturbations ride the flow and interact with the frontal zone and any residual boundaries that are generated. Currently, the best chances for rain (40-60%) will be on Tuesday across North Texas along and in the immediate wake of the front, with lower chances farther south into Central Texas. Rainfall totals through next Friday afternoon are generally still less than 2 inches for North Texas and 1 inch or less for Central Texas. Temperatures will trend noticeably cooler behind the front and in response to rain-cooled air and increasing cloud cover. All of North Texas and parts of Central Texas will see highs in the upper 70s and low 80s on Tuesday. The most anticipated day of the week will likely be Wednesday when morning lows will be in the 60s and daytime highs will be in the 80s across the entire area. Not a bad way to wrap up the climatologically hottest month of the year. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the 12Z TAF period with daytime cumulus around 6 kft. Winds will slowly veer from westerly to north-northwesterly this morning with speeds generally at 5-10 kts, though a few gusts to 15 kts are possible this afternoon. For Waco, there remains a low (less than 20 percent) chance for diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity across Central Texas this afternoon, but anything that develops should remain well south and east of the airport, so we will maintain a dry terminal forecast today. 12 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 97 76 96 77 95 / 0 5 5 5 10 Waco 95 73 96 75 95 / 0 0 5 0 5 Paris 94 72 94 72 91 / 0 10 0 5 10 Denton 98 72 95 73 95 / 0 5 5 5 10 McKinney 97 72 95 73 94 / 0 5 5 5 10 Dallas 98 76 97 77 96 / 0 5 5 5 10 Terrell 96 72 97 73 94 / 0 5 5 0 10 Corsicana 95 73 97 75 96 / 0 0 5 0 5 Temple 94 71 96 72 96 / 5 0 5 0 5 Mineral Wells 96 70 96 71 96 / 0 5 5 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$