110
FXUS64 KFWD 051830
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
130 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional storm chances are expected tonight into Friday
  morning. Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be
  possible, mainly across the Big Country.

- Hot and muggy conditions are expected heading into this weekend,
  with low storm chances (15-30%) near the Red River Friday night
  into Saturday.

- An unsettled pattern returns to the region beginning Saturday night,
  with daily chances (40-60%) for thunderstorms through next
  week. Some storms could be strong to severe Saturday night and
  again Sunday night, with damaging winds and large hail possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1251 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025/
/Through Friday/

This morning`s complex of storms has dissipated. Very isolated
showers will continue across portions of the forecast area
through the afternoon, but most locations will remain rain-free.
With the return of southerly winds, expect warmer temperatures
today with highs in the 80s to low 90s.

Supercells are expected to develop in West Texas this afternoon
and will warrant close watching as they move east through the
evening. Unfortunately, convective evolution remains rather
uncertain. Some of these storms could make a run at our western
border this evening, with some guidance depicting the development
of another MCS prior to it reaching the forecast area. Have
introduced low (20%) PoPs for now, but this may need to be
increased depending on how things trend over the next few hours.
If this activity is able to maintain its intensity, isolated
damaging wind gusts and perhaps some isolated large hail may be
possible across the Big Country.

Depending on how this evening`s storms evolve, there will be the
potential for another MCS overnight. We`ll maintain some low
(20-30%) storm chances in portions of North Texas late tonight into
Friday morning to reflect this potential. Strong wind gusts would
be the main threat if this MCS materializes, with most of this
activity expected to remain north of the Red River.

Once any morning storms come to an end, hot and humid weather will
prevail through the remainder of the day on Friday. Mostly sunny
skies will allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 90s
Friday afternoon. Heat index values will reach the triple digit
mark for a handful of locations, but most locations will remain in
the mid to upper 90s.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night Onward/

Hot and humid weather will continue into the weekend. MCSs will
develop on a daily basis and will have the potential to skirt
North Texas each night. While most of the MCS activity will
remain north of the Red River Friday night, there will be better
chances for storms in the forecast area Saturday night and
especially Sunday night. Some of these storms will have the
potential to be severe, with damaging winds and hail expected to
be the main threats.

A cold front will slide into the region on Monday but will become
stationary through the middle of the week. The frontal boundary
will serve as a focus for the development of additional showers
and storms on a daily basis through mid to late next week.
Fortunately, the rain chances will keep temperatures slightly
below normal with highs in the 80s and morning lows in the mid 60s
to low 70s.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1251 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will continue through the afternoon, with winds returning out
of the south/southeast around 5-10 knots. Our attention will turn
towards the storms in West Texas this afternoon and evening, as
this activity could make a run at North Texas near or just after
sunset. There is a low potential for another complex of storms to
develop, similar to this morning. If this occurs, this activity
may approach D10 airspace potentially around 03-05Z.
Unfortunately, there is high uncertainty in exactly how this
activity will evolve, but it will bear watching this evening.

Depending on how the storms evolve this evening, another complex
of storms could approach from the northwest late tonight into
Friday morning. Most of this activity will remain north of the Red
River, and impacts to any North Texas terminals is quite unlikely.
Once this activity comes to an end, rain-free weather will prevail
through the remainder of the period.

MVFR stratus is expected to develop again tonight, mainly across
Central Texas. There is a low potential for MVFR ceilings in
portions of North Texas, but it will more than likely remain south
and east of the Metroplex terminals. South winds will continue on
Friday around 10-12 knots.

Barnes

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  76  93  76  93 /  30   5  10   5  10
Waco                87  74  91  74  93 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               85  73  90  74  89 /  10  20  20   5  30
Denton              86  73  93  74  92 /  30  10  10   5  10
McKinney            86  74  92  74  91 /  30  20  20   5  10
Dallas              88  76  93  77  95 /  30   5  10   5  10
Terrell             87  74  91  74  92 /  20   5   5   0  10
Corsicana           88  76  92  76  93 /  10   0   0   0   5
Temple              89  74  93  74  95 /  10   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       87  72  94  73  95 /  30  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$