Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
515 FXUS64 KFWD 100613 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1213 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Following a seasonably cool Monday, a warming trend will occur through the rest of the workweek with highs returning to the 70s and 80s. - An elevated wildfire threat will materialize west of I-35 on Tuesday due to low humidity, breezy south winds, and warmer temperatures. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return next weekend, especially on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1110 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 A Freeze Warning remains in effect for a majority of the forecast area this morning, with most of the CWA set to begin the day in the upper 20s and lower 30s. A seasonably cool and dry afternoon will follow with highs in the 50s coupled with low humidity characterized by dewpoints in the teens. With the post-frontal surface high settling into the Central Plains, winds will be much lighter than yesterday at 10 mph or less, and they`ll already begin to return to southeasterly late this evening as the surface ridge axis shifts east. Mid-level flow will begin amplifying on Tuesday, and the building central CONUS ridge axis and attendant low-level warm advection regime will result in a fairly quick warming trend. Southerly winds will strengthen during the day, and will precede any significant moisture return as the 50F isodrosotherm has been thoroughly scoured far into the Gulf by Saturday`s cold front. The combination of resultant low RH values, breezy south winds, and a return to warmer temperatures in the lower 70s will cause the fire threat to become elevated mainly across western portions of the area on Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1110 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 A southerly flow regime will remain in place through the end of the workweek which will maintain a steady warming trend. Highs will return to the 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in the 50s and lower 60s. Greater moisture return will also begin on Wednesday, and the higher RH values through the second half of the week will largely eliminate any additional fire weather concerns. While this moisture content will be enough to result in morning stratus intrusions, it will remain insufficient to support precipitation, with no rain chances forecast through Friday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast for next weekend, especially on Saturday. The upper ridge axis will begin to break down late in the workweek, with a strong upper trough set to arrive from the west over the weekend. With strengthened southerly flow and a more favorable fetch of moisture preceding this feature, fairly widespread precipitation could accompany this system, and PoPs have increased to 40-60% across much of the area on Saturday based on recent guidance. The speed of this trough/low remains uncertain, and some guidance does still support a slower cutoff low solution. This would delay its eastward advance and possibly allow rain chances to persist into Sunday. While modest instability should be sufficient to support thunderstorm activity, the overall parameter space presently appears unsupportive of strong or severe thunderstorms, although this could also change depending on alterations in the system`s speed and trajectory. This storm system would feature another cold frontal passage, sending temperatures back to near normal for the rest of the weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 North winds at 10 kts or less will prevail through most of today before returning to light southerly after 00z this evening. VFR conditions will continue with mostly clear skies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 34 54 41 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 64 31 56 39 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 56 28 51 33 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 60 31 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 60 31 53 36 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 60 35 55 42 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 61 30 54 35 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 62 33 57 39 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 65 36 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 60 30 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for TXZ091>095-101>107- 116>123-130>135-143>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley