967
FXUS64 KFWD 050912
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
312 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog will affect much of North and Central Texas
  through mid Wednesday morning.

- Abnormally warm temperatures will return today and continue the
  rest of this week.

- A cold front this weekend will bring much colder temperatures
  Sunday through much of next week, along with high rain chances
  Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1251 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025/
/Today through Thursday Afternoon/

Our earlier front remains draped across Central Texas, where a
sharp drop in dewpoints and temperatures can be seen in surface
observations (50 deg temps / 58 deg dewpoints in Cameron vs 66 deg
temps / 64 deg dewpoints in Hearne). Near and north of the
frontal boundary, southerly low-level winds continue to pump warm
and moist air overtop the cool airmass. This will allow for the
continued formation of low stratus across the region and
occasional drizzle near/east of I-35. Additionally, patchy dense
fog has formed across the majority of the forecast area over the
last several hours, and will persist/worsen through mid morning.
This fog is most prevalent across the eastern half of the CWA,
with many METAR observing near 1 SM or less of surface visibility.
A Dense Fog Advisory has been put into effect until 10AM for
areas near and east of I-35 and near and north of US-84. As we
head into the morning, this may be expanded in area depending on
how the fog develops south and west.

With most of the region remaining nestled within the post-frontal
airmass and cloud cover keeping most areas insulated, this morning
will be chilly for most of North and Central Texas as
temperatures range from the low 40s in the northwest to the mid
60s across far southern Central Texas.

The front will start to be ushered northward as a warm front near
daybreak as a mid-level open shortwave disturbance moves into the
Southern Plains, with southerly winds and warmer temperatures
returning in its wake. While skies will remain cloudy today, cloud
heights will lift and the fog will erode over the late morning
and afternoon hours. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the low 70s
to low 80s.

Much warmer conditions are expected overnight into Thursday
afternoon as the CWA finds itself south of the warm front with a
bit less cloud cover. Morning lows will only drop into the upper
50s to mid 60s while afternoon highs peak in the mid 70s in the
northwest to mid 80s south. The lingering frontal boundary will
be ushered back into our northwestern counties late tomorrow as an
upper disturbance moves into the Great Lakes, keeping
temperatures a couple of degrees lower in the far northwest.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night through Wednesday/

The annoying oscillating cold front is anticipated to ooze back
southward on Thursday night roughly to an Eastland to DFW to
Paris line per GFS/ECMWF/NAM. The front is then expected to lift
back northward near or across the Red River during the day on
Friday per most guidance, although the outlier NAM keeps the front
stalled near the I-20 corridor all day. As we saw on Tuesday,
frontal position will have large implications on high temperatures
for Friday, with areas north of the front likely only reaching
the 60s/70s while locations to the south warm into the 80s. So if
the front does remain stalled as the NAM suggests, temps north of
I-20 may be considerably cooler than currently forecast. For now,
going with the model majority and keeping a warmer forecast for
Friday.

Regardless of what happens Friday, the front is expected to zoom
back northward into Oklahoma on Friday night into Saturday
morning as a strong 90-100kt jet streak emerges into the Central
Plains. Strong south to southwesterly low level flow will develop
across North and Central Texas on Saturday, and this along with
pre- frontal compression should allow temps to soar to their
warmest levels this week into the mid 80s to low 90s. Current
forecast has daily record highs being broken at DFW (forecast 88,
record 85 in 1961) and tied at ACT (forecast 88, record 88 in
1962). Only fly in the ointment is that the front will begin its
final and substantial push south on Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening, with some guidance suggesting it could reach the
I-20 corridor by 00Z Sunday. This could keep highs down a tad
from the current forecast if it occurs, but even so it should
still get quite toasty even with an earlier fropa.

Much colder temperatures arrive behind the front Saturday night
and continue through much of next week as an Arctic airmass
remains entrenched across the Plains. Lows by Sunday morning are
expected to drop into the upper 30s in our northwest to the upper
50s in our southeast, which will be some 25 to 45 degrees colder
than highs on Saturday. Temps will stay near or even below normal
for much of next week, with highs mainly in the 40s/50s and lows
in the 30s/40s - although parts of our northwestern and northern
counties will dip into the upper 20s on Tuesday night. Despite the
colder temperatures, upper flow aloft will remain southwesterly
over Texas with a few significant shortwaves moving overhead,
which will bring us several rounds of rain from Sunday night
through Tuesday night. Latest WPC QPF has rainfall totals ranging
from a quarter inch in our west to over an inch in our east
during this timeframe. Latest long range guidance still looks too
warm in our forecast area for any wintry mischief, but if
temperatures are just a few degrees colder we could have some
freezing rain/ice issues in our northern counties - so it`s
something we`ll be keeping a close eye on.

Shamburger

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1251 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025/
/06Z TAFs/

Flying conditions will continue to be dismal, varying between IFR
and LIFR through Wednesday morning. Cigs and vis have gradually
tanked at the D10 airports, with ACT following suit. There is
a high potential for visibility to tank to around 1 SM or less
through daybreak, and have brought in a TEMPO until 10Z in D10
(though that may need to be extended or prevailed through ~15-16Z
in future amendments). ACT will likely drop to LIFR closer to 08Z.
Northerly winds will persist into early morning at ACT and closer
to noon at D10 before a warm front begins to breach the airports.

Behind the passing warm front, cigs and vis will slowly improve,
with VFR returning late in the afternoon hours at all TAF sites.
Southerly winds will end the period, with speeds around 11 kts.
Another round of MVFR stratus is possible in D10 after closer to
09Z Thursday.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  63  81  60  81 /  10   0   0   0   5
Waco                78  64  82  63  81 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               68  64  78  58  78 /  10   0   5   5  20
Denton              66  60  79  54  80 /  10   0   0   0   5
McKinney            68  62  80  58  79 /  10   0   0   0   5
Dallas              70  64  82  60  81 /  10   0   0   0   5
Terrell             72  63  80  61  80 /  10   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           79  65  81  64  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              79  62  82  62  83 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  59  83  55  85 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ092>095-
103>107-118>123-133>135-145-146-159-161.

&&

$$