Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
239 FXUS64 KFWD 011030 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 530 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are expected once again this afternoon. Strong downburst winds and heavy rain will be the main threats. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out. - A complex of thunderstorms could affect portions of the area Sunday night into Monday, before seasonably hot and dry weather resumes next week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 229 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025/ /Today through Saturday Night/ Showers and thunderstorms will develop once again this afternoon across parts of North and Central Texas. Some storms may produce strong downburst winds as well as heavy rainfall. Where prolonged heavy rainfall occurs, there will be a threat for flash flooding. The weather pattern across the region is characterized by an area of high pressure, centered in southeast Arizona with another high over the Gulf, near the Florida panhandle. The respective anti- cyclonic flow near each area of high pressure is leading to an influx of forcing for ascent from the northwest and increased moisture from the south. In addition, a stalled front now lays from west to east across North Texas and minimal shift is expected over the next 24 hours. With moisture in place and multiple sources of lift in the area, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by the mid- afternoon hours. The primary focus for thunderstorms will likely be along the stalled front in North Texas. Having said that, with convective temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, additional thunderstorm activity will be possible outside of the frontal zone as afternoon highs will range between 95-98 degrees. A weakly sheared atmosphere will preclude the development of severe thunderstorms, however, a few strong downburst winds cannot be ruled out. The other concern will be the development of heavy rainfall given the anomalously high amount of moisture in the atmosphere. The latest guidance continues to hint at a few storms, or clusters of storms, capable of producing over 5 inches of rain late this afternoon and evening. The overall probability of experiencing those higher rainfall amounts ranges between 20-30% and appears most likely along and east of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. Given not everyone will see rain today, areal averages will range between 0.5" to 2.5" of rain. As the sun sets this evening, rain chances will lower but not completely disappear during the overnight period. The shortwave will remain atop our region, leading to a few storms mainly in East Texas. Severe weather is not expected overnight, however, brief heavy downpours will continue. By tomorrow afternoon, the shortwave will be exiting our region, leaving behind a temporary break from the thunderstorm chances. With northerly winds in place, below normal temperatures are expected throughout much of the region. Highs should remain in the mid to upper 80s east of I-35 in North Texas with lower to mid 90s elsewhere. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 229 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025/ /Sunday Onward/ As north-northwesterly flow continues this weekend, another shortwave will advance toward our region on Sunday. Latest guidance has this shortwave across Northern Oklahoma Sunday morning, arriving in North Texas near sunset. With plentiful moisture in place, rain chances will once again pick up Sunday afternoon. Sunday night, we`ll have to monitor for any thunderstorm activity that may develop in Oklahoma and shift southward into our region. Overall, confidence in the timing of thunderstorms on Sunday remains low. Rain chances will end from northwest to southeast Monday morning as the ridge out west expands towards the Southern Plains. This should shunt the train of shortwaves closer to the lower Mississippi River Valley and commence a drying trend for North and Central Texas. Additionally, temperatures will once again return to normal by Wednesday and likely climb above normal as we approach next weekend. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Concerns...E/NE winds. TSRA in D10 this afternoon/evening. A tranquil morning across North and Central Texas will give way to afternoon scattered thunderstorms. A stalled front now lays across North Texas, leading to northeasterly winds at all D10 airports. Waco remains with southerly winds as the front won`t arrive until this afternoon. For North Texas, VFR skies will remain through the morning. As we head into the latter half of the afternoon, thunderstorms will develop within D10. Given recent model guidance, have opted to include TEMPO TSRA for the eastern TAF sites in the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The greatest threat will be between 23-02z. Erratic wind speeds and variable wind direction can be expected if storms remain in D10. Storms will shift to the east of the TAF sites after 03z, leaving behind continued northeasterly winds. There is a 20% chance of MVFR occurring by 12z Saturday. We`ll continue to assess Saturday morning`s ceiling forecast and make adjustments to the TAF as necessary. Hernandez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening across North Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 75 89 75 93 / 50 40 30 5 10 Waco 99 75 93 75 94 / 20 40 40 10 10 Paris 89 71 86 68 89 / 50 50 40 5 5 Denton 94 72 90 71 93 / 50 30 30 5 10 McKinney 94 73 87 71 91 / 50 50 40 5 10 Dallas 96 75 89 74 93 / 50 40 30 5 10 Terrell 95 73 88 71 92 / 50 50 40 5 10 Corsicana 98 75 92 74 94 / 40 40 50 10 10 Temple 99 75 94 73 95 / 20 30 40 20 10 Mineral Wells 94 72 94 71 96 / 40 20 20 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$