Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
249 FXUS64 KFWD 161815 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms will continue today, with the highest rain chances along and west of I-35. Heavy rainfall will be the primary concern, and a few strong storms may also produce gusty downburst winds. - Isolated showers and storms remain possible on Friday with coverage of 20% or less across the far western counties. Dry conditions expected elsewhere. - Drier and hotter conditions are expected this weekend into next week with temperatures returning into the 90s and lower-100s. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 The upper level low that brought multiple rounds of scattered to widespread precipitation across much of the state is currently located over West Texas. As a result, the best lift is located along the western edge of the CWA, and scattered shower and storm activity (40-50%) is expected to be confined to areas west of I-35. To the east, heights are beginning to rise, bringing subsidence and limiting chances for convection to below 40% and decreasing as you move eastward. Multiple rounds of convection will be possible this afternoon and evening, as subtle impulses rounding the upper low trigger redevelopment. The primary hazard with this activity remains heavy rain and isolated flash flooding, along with a risk of gusty downburst winds. Activity should come to an end after sunset. The upper level low continues to shift west, reaching the Southern Rockies Friday, with high pressure building in overhead. This will push chances for even isolated showers and storms (15-20%) well to the west, with mostly dry conditions expected across Central, East, and most of North Texas. This will be the last day of below normal temperatures, with some lingering morning cloud cover and ample surface moisture keeping Friday`s highs in the low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 As the upper level low continues to meander westward and gradually fill, high pressure will build in across the center of the country. As a result, rain chances drop to near zero for the remainder of the forecast period, while temperatures begin to climb. Highs on Saturday are expected to run near-normal, thanks to a bit of lingering cloud cover. But by the start of the coming work week, temperatures will jump into the upper-90s to low-100s, with heat indices of 100-107 each day. This heat will likely stick around through the end of next week, as long-term guidance shows no hint of the high shifting away. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop around the D10 airspace this afternoon, with VCTS included through 01z. There is a chance of storms impacting the terminals, but confidence is low and therefore went with a PROB30 rather than a TEMPO. Activity is expected to taper off after 01z, although there is potential for a second push of showers or storms later this evening, after 02-03z. However, with the limited lightning activity so far this afternoon, and model guidance really pulls back on storm coverage, there wasn`t enough confidence to include a line in the TAF. Will continue to monitor trends. Expect another round of MVFR cigs to develop tomorrow morning between 12-14z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 91 76 95 / 20 10 0 0 Waco 74 91 75 92 / 30 10 10 0 Paris 72 90 74 93 / 10 10 0 0 Denton 74 91 74 95 / 20 10 0 0 McKinney 75 92 75 94 / 10 10 0 0 Dallas 76 92 77 96 / 20 10 0 0 Terrell 74 92 75 94 / 10 10 0 0 Corsicana 75 93 76 95 / 20 10 0 0 Temple 74 91 74 93 / 40 10 10 0 Mineral Wells 71 91 72 93 / 30 10 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bealo LONG TERM....Bealo AVIATION...Bealo