179
FXUS64 KFWD 061803
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
103 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions are expected this weekend.

- An unsettled pattern will continue with storm chances expected
  Saturday night and Sunday night. Some severe weather will be
  possible including the threat for damaging winds.

- Periodic storm chances will continue through the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1120 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025/
/This Afternoon through Saturday Night/

A thunderstorm complex that moved across Oklahoma last night and
this morning continues to push eastward with only a few isolated
showers/storms clipping our far northeast counties. These should
persist for another hour or so before dissipating leaving a hot
and humid afternoon in its wake. Highs this afternoon will
generally top out in the lower 90s with heat indices near 100
degrees.

Mid level ridging will remain in place to our south this
afternoon, but a weak disturbance spreading through the westerly
flow aloft combined with strong heating ahead of a dryline/outflow
intersection should result in the development of additional deep
convection off to our northwest late this afternoon. The wind
fields associated with the periphery of the mid level ridge should
keep most of this evening activity to our northwest and
eventually across parts of Oklahoma again tonight. We`ll maintain
some low PoPs across our far northwest counties through tonight.
Similar to this morning, most of the overnight activity should
remain across Oklahoma into early Saturday morning where we`ll
have some low PoPs.

Saturday will be hot and humid again with highs in the mid 90s and
dewpoints in the lower 70s. This will result in heat indices
between 100-105 degrees areawide although south winds 10-15 mph
will provide a touch of relief. We`ll hold off on any heat
advisories at this time but continue to monitor this potential.

Upper flow becomes a little more northwesterly during the day
Saturday and another shortwave will spread through the Plains
and send a weak front southward Saturday night. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop initially off to our north, but should expand
in coverage through the overnight hours as stronger forcing for
ascent arrives after midnight. The best chances for thunderstorms
will be along and north of I-20 toward the Red River late
Saturday night where we`ll have 20-40% PoPs. A few of these storms
could be severe with a damaging wind threat. The unsettled pattern
will continue into Sunday and early next week.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday through Friday/

Hot and humid weather will continue on Sunday behind any remnant
morning convection sending heat index values back up around 105
degrees during the afternoon. It should be quiet for most of the
day but as temperatures climb into the mid 90s, we`ll become
strongly unstable beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. The
pattern will be more favorable for developing thunderstorms across
the Panhandle to surge southeast into this axis of strong
instability Sunday night. Latest model guidance continues to
advertise this potential and we should see our best storm chances
over the next several days during this time. Given the degree of
instability into the late night hours, there will be a threat for
severe weather as an organized complex of storms spreads southeast
across the region. Damaging winds will be the main threat,
although some instances of severe hail will also be possible.

Remnant outflow will likely set up across Central Texas during the
day Monday in the wake of the earlier complex of storms. This
boundary will serve as a focus for additional convective
development by late Monday afternoon and evening across Central TX
and in our west/southwest counties. Strong afternoon heating
should contribute to a quick recovery of instability and will
support a continued threat for severe weather into the late
evening hours.

Beyond Monday night, the pattern looks like it will remain active
through the middle and latter part of the week, although timing of
individual clusters of thunderstorms will be difficult to pin down
more than about a day in advance. We`ll maintain relative high
PoPs

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1120 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

Scattered cumulus is spreading north out of Central TX this
morning and will likely persist through much of the afternoon as a
moist boundary layer is in place. South winds 10-15 kt are
expected to continue through the period with MVFR cigs developing
again tonight across Central TX. At this time, we`ll keep all of
the lower cigs to the south and east of the Metroplex airports as
low level flow becomes more southwesterly. Convective chances
look like they`ll remain displaced to the north of the D10
airspace.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  77  95  76  95 /   0   5   5  20  10
Waco                92  75  94  75  95 /   0   0   0   5   0
Paris               90  75  90  70  90 /  30   5  20  40  10
Denton              92  74  94  72  94 /   5   5   5  30  10
McKinney            91  76  93  73  93 /   5   5  10  30  10
Dallas              93  77  95  75  96 /   0   0   5  20  10
Terrell             91  75  93  74  93 /   0   0   5  20  10
Corsicana           93  76  94  77  94 /   0   0   0  10   5
Temple              93  75  95  75  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       93  73  95  73  96 /   0  10   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$