Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
311 FXUS64 KFWD 082333 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 633 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms are expected this afternoon mainly east of I-35. Strong winds and heavy rain will be the main threats with any storms. - Hot and dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with low storm chances returning across the region by this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Quasi-stationary convection occurred across Hopkins county overnight into this morning in which MRMS has estimated as much as 7 inches of rainfall has fallen prompting QPE to FFG ratios exceeding 200%, translating to a localized region of 6-hour 200 year ARIs. As PWAT ranges from 1.5- 1.7" over the region in addition to a warm cloud depth of extending up to 6 km AGL based off the 12Z Fort Worth sounding, was not surprised to see efficient warm rain processes with these storms. Another hot and humid day is in store for North Central Texas today, as we remain under weak flow aloft with a broad longwave trough located to our south. Similar to the previous few days, we will continue the typical diurnal pattern of shallow low-level moisture mixing out with daytime heating as high temperatures will reach the upper 90s to near 100 degrees today. As dewpoints are expected to decrease into the mid to upper 60s, heat index values will range from 100 to 105 degrees which is just below heat index criteria, although individuals should make sure to stay hydrated especially during any outdoor activities. Though coverage will be lower than yesterday, can expect a few showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into the early evening hours with weak flow aloft and and sufficient destabilization with high resolution ensemble guidance showing 1000 J/Kg SBCAPE. Coverage will likely be highest in areas north and east of the DFW Metroplex where the greatest low-level moisture is with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and frequent lightning, but also can`t rule out a few sub- severe wind gusts up to 50 mph as forecast soundings 20-25 degree surface dewpoint depressions. Similar to yesterday, most activity should be over by sunset as the boundary layer begins to stabilize. Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with southerly winds ranging from 5-10 mph and gusts peaking around 15-20 mph. As a result, overnight lows are again expected to remain quite balmy, with temperatures only dropping to near 80 degrees for the Metroplex, with mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Thursday, expect drier conditions as 500 mb heights are around the 85th percentile underneath the broad ridge that is encompassing most of the country. High temperatures are expected to approach the 100 degree mark with heat indices remaining below advisory criteria as we continue the diurnal trend of mixing out boundary layer moisture through the afternoon, leaving dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows will again remain muggy under gusty conditions, with temperatures only dropping to around or just below 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The long term period will feature an amplifying mid-level ridge, with 500 mb heights increasing to 594 dam over the 4 Corners region by this weekend. This will result in high temperatures remaining around 5 degrees above average (climatology for DFW on Friday is 95 degrees). Long term ensemble guidance is hinting at a weak surface front pushing to the south from an attendant surface low located over Southern Kansas, which may serve as a focal point for a few showers and thunderstorms across North Central Texas Saturday night into Sunday, however this will depend on how far south the front progresses. Confidence in spatial coverage of rainfall is uncertain at this time, but with PWAT values ranging from the 85th to 90th percentile, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the storms. In addition to weak flow aloft (around 5 knots at 500 mb), storms will likely be slow-moving which may introduce a flooding threat. Stay tuned for more details as this gets closer... With increasing precipitation chances and therefore cloud cover, can expect highs to cool down slightly to the mid-90s by early next week with rain chances each day as moisture remains trapped underneath the ridge. Weak easterly mid-level flow may allow for a few sea-breeze induced showers and thunderstorms to drift inland, mainly impacting our southern and eastern counties in addition to stronger moisture return into North Central Texas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Though isolated TSRA has developed southwest of the Metroplex, TSRA is very unlikely at TAF sites (<10%) so have not included in TAFs. VFR and south flow at 10-15 kts will prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 102 81 100 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 79 98 77 96 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 77 96 78 95 / 10 0 0 0 Denton 80 101 81 100 / 10 0 0 0 McKinney 80 100 81 99 / 10 0 0 0 Dallas 82 101 81 100 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 78 98 78 97 / 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 79 99 77 98 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 77 98 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 77 100 77 99 / 20 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brauer LONG TERM....Brauer AVIATION...Darrah