030
FXUS64 KFWD 181809
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
109 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances will increase late this evening and overnight
  mainly west of I-35. A few severe storms will be possible.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday night
  into early Sunday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be
  possible mainly northwest of the Metroplex.

- An active period of weather is expected through next week with
  additional storm chances Tuesday night through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Saturday Night/

A warm, humid, and moderately unstable airmass is in place across
North Texas this afternoon aided by moist southerly flow.
Dewpoints are currently in the mid and upper 60s across the region
yielding about 2500 J/kg of instability, but a strong capping
inversion is currently in place keeping things mostly quiet. High
level moisture is streaming in from the southwest and some weak
radar returns are noted, but none of this is reaching the ground
thanks to a deep dry sub-cloud layer. The rest of the afternoon
should generally remain quiet, although we`ll be watching a couple
of things as we head into the evening hours.

The strong capping inversion will gradually weaken through the
late afternoon as a combination of synoptic scale lift, mid-level
cooling, and strong surface heating works to modify the profile.
This should result in an environment supportive of isolated
thunderstorm development by 5-7 pm, however, a lack of any
appreciable low level forcing mechanism will be a limiting factor.
Several runs of the HRRR attempt to develop convection in and
around the Metroplex during this time, likely along a tight
theta-e gradient near the shield of thicker cloud cover and mostly
sunny skies. While this gradient is currently in place, it`s a
little uncertain whether or not it will persist into the late
afternoon if cloud cover to the west thins a bit. Nonetheless, the
environment will be supportive of severe thunderstorms with a
large hail and damaging wind threat if any storms were to develop.
We`ll keep PoPs at 20% this evening to account for this potential.

Attention then turns to our western counties this evening and
tonight as stronger forcing for ascent spreads into the Southern
Plains ahead of a potent shortwave trough. At the surface, a cold
front is draped across Central Oklahoma into northwest Texas. This
boundary will serve as a focus for convective development off to
our northwest late this afternoon and evening, and the bulk of
this activity will gradually slide southeastward into our area
after dark. We`ll have high PoPs to our west and northwest through
the overnight hours, as most of this activity should be directly
tied to the front. Similar to this afternoon, there will be some
potential for severe weather, including large hail and damaging
winds through the overnight hours. It`s a little uncertain how far
east this activity will make it, but any organized cold pools
could help push things a little farther east than currently
forecast. As this initial wave of ascent pulls off to the
northeast, we should see a gradual decrease in coverage and
intensity of thunderstorms into the early morning hours on
Saturday. We`ll maintain relatively high PoPs through the first
half of Saturday (particularly across our northwest), but most
areas may actually remain precipitation free through the afternoon
hours.

As the main shortwave begins to eject into the Plains Saturday
night, we`ll see a rapid uptick in the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across our northwest counties through the late
evening hours. Some of this initial re-development could be severe
with a large hail and damaging wind threat. An eventual transition
into a linear complex of storms is expected through the overnight
hours with this activity approaching the I-35 corridor by early
Sunday morning.

While there will be a threat for severe weather through the period
(now through Sat night), the main concern in our area will likely
be a focused area of very heavy rainfall across the northwest part
of the CWA (Young, Jack, Wise, Cooke, and Montague Counties). This
would be closely tied to the frontal boundary where multiple
training thunderstorms may occur. There will also be a tight
gradient in rainfall amounts with the heaviest occurring across
our northwest and much lesser amounts to the south and east. If
trends in QPF amounts continue, a localized Flash Flood Watch may
be needed for parts of the CWA.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday through Friday/

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing early Sunday morning
with a complex of storms somewhere near the I-35 corridor. While
the severe threat should be at a diurnal minimum, we`ll have to
see how well organized the line of storms remains overnight.
A damaging wind threat may persist for a few hours early Sunday
morning. Otherwise, the bulk of the strong forcing for ascent will
quickly pull off to the north and east through midday, and we`ll
likely see a rapid decrease in the coverage of showers and storms
during this time with drier air quickly filtering in from the west
through Sunday afternoon.

A brief lull in the active pattern is expected late Sunday through
early Tuesday, but deep moisture will not be far removed from the
region. Southerly winds will return and pull this moisture
northward through the day Tuesday. A series of fast moving
disturbances will swing through the Southern Plains during the
week with the first one expected Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms
should initially develop off to the west and south along a dryline
and remnant frontal boundary during peak heating. This activity
may overspread parts of North Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Another disturbance is expected to approach the region on Thursday
and this may be the day with the greatest coverage of
thunderstorms and threat for severe weather.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Low clouds have generally scattered out across the region beneath
a thicker canopy of high clouds. Gusty southerly winds will
prevail through tonight before wind speeds diminish some on
Saturday. Our main concerns will be a low potential for high
impact thunderstorms this evening in and around the major
airports. There`s currently no mention of this in the TAFs, but
chances are around 20%. Thunderstorm chances will increase
overnight into early Saturday morning mainly to the west/northwest
of the major airports but this activity is expected to drift in
the general direction of I-35 through early morning. We`ll have
VCTS from 11-15Z to account for this activity. Saturday may remain
precip free through the afternoon with additional thunderstorms
expected Saturday night. This activity will move through the D10
airspace late Sat night into early Sunday.

VFR will prevail this afternoon but a return to MVFR cigs is
expected again overnight and will generally prevail through midday
Saturday.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  68  79  62  77 /  20  60  60  70  60
Waco                88  70  83  63  79 /   5  30  20  30  60
Paris               84  68  80  65  74 /  20  50  50  30  70
Denton              87  64  76  57  76 /  20  70  80  90  50
McKinney            85  67  79  62  76 /  20  60  60  60  60
Dallas              87  69  81  64  77 /  20  60  60  60  60
Terrell             85  68  81  65  78 /  20  40  30  20  70
Corsicana           88  71  83  66  81 /   5  20  20  10  70
Temple              89  68  83  62  81 /   0  20  20  30  60
Mineral Wells       89  65  79  57  77 /  20  80  80 100  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$