Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
518 FXUS64 KFWD 170638 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 138 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North and Central Texas through 8 PM this evening. - Hot and humid conditions along with daily low storm chances are forecast through Tuesday. - Slightly higher storm chances (30-60% chance) and below normal temperatures are forecast during the mid to late week period. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Daybreak Monday/ Earlier showers that developed south of the Metroplex have faded, and subsidence on the southern edge of the mid-level ridge should keep conditions quiet through the predawn hours. For this afternoon, the continuing northward surge of anomalous Gulf moisture (1.8-2.1 inches PWATs) and weak ascent tied to the remnant tropical disturbance will lift towards the Red River while upper-level ridging remains centered northeast of our area. Weak inhibition and rich low-level moisture will support isolated to scattered convection during peak heating, most favored west of I-35 and north of I-20 where deeper mixing meets the higher moisture plume. Given the available moisture and weak capping elsewhere across the region, a few storms could develop almost anywhere across the area, though the better aerial coverage will be across western North Texas. Forecast soundings depict tall, relatively skinny CAPE profiles which favors pulse-type convection with brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and localized outflow wind gusts to near 40 to 50 mph. Weak steering flow implies slow storm motions which could result in highly variable rainfall totals. Coverage will diminish quickly after sunset with a warm, quiet night to follow. Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 90s today. Afternoon dewpoints have been nudged down several degrees from the NBM to reflect persistent vertical mixing into the lower 70s, which trims peak heat indices a bit. Even so, many locations along and east of I-35 will still reach 105 to 107 degrees F. No changes are planned to the Heat Advisory that remains in effect through 8 PM this evening. Lows tonight will settle in the mid 70s though urban areas are likely to hover in the upper 70s to near 80 F. 12 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Monday through Saturday Morning/ The ridge retrogrades toward the Four Corners early in the week, placing North and Central Texas beneath north to northwest flow aloft. Embedded weak perturbations interacting with lingering high PWAT moisture will yield daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorm Monday and Tuesday. Downburst winds from collapsing cells and brief heavy rain will be the primary concerns given modest CAPE and weak shear. A modest front is then expected to sag into or through North Texas midweek and likely stall nearby. This should focus the highest rain chances Wednesday into Friday over our forecast area. Exact timing and southward extent of the boundary remain the largest uncertainties and will govern where the greater coverage and any localized heavier totals set up. Temperatures ease from the mid to upper 90s Monday through Wednesday to lower to mid 90s behind or near the boundary late week. Triple digit heat indices could also still occur outside of any rain-cooled areas. Light northerly winds may follow the boundary briefly before onshore flow attempts to become re-established by the weekend as heights begin to rebound. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail at all terminals with S-SSE winds around 8-12 kt. Overnight/morning VCSH has been removed from the North Texas TAFS as high-res guidance shows a low potential for additional SHRA near the airports this morning. For the Metroplex, isolated convection developing west of D10 may brush the airspace this afternoon; VCTS is carried from 19 to 23Z. Expect erratic gusts and temporary wind shifts in and near any storms, otherwise prevailing winds remain southerly. KACT stays VFR through the period with S winds near 10 kt and no thunder mention needed this cycle. Additional convection is anticipated just beyond the end of the TAF period and will be handled in subsequent updates. 12 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 98 80 99 78 / 10 30 10 20 10 Waco 77 96 77 97 77 / 10 30 10 30 10 Paris 76 98 75 99 75 / 5 10 5 5 10 Denton 77 98 76 99 76 / 10 30 10 20 20 McKinney 76 98 76 99 76 / 10 20 5 20 10 Dallas 80 99 80 100 79 / 10 30 10 20 10 Terrell 76 98 76 98 76 / 5 20 10 20 10 Corsicana 77 98 76 98 77 / 5 30 10 20 10 Temple 76 98 75 97 75 / 10 20 20 40 10 Mineral Wells 75 97 74 98 73 / 20 40 10 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-103>107- 118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175. && $$