Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
138 FXUS64 KFWD 222344 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 644 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - This weekend will be seasonably hot, with low rain chances continuing in Central Texas through Saturday. - A cold front will arrive early next week, bringing below normal temperatures and daily rain chances through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 242 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/ /Through Sunday Night/ The combination of leftover boundaries from this morning`s convection and weak ascent on top of a moist boundary layer will continue to support isolated to scattered showers/storms through early this evening. Recent radar imagery shows isolated showers generally along and south of I-20/30 corridor. This trend will continue the rest of the afternoon with the best potential for storms across Central Texas. Given there`s plenty of dry air aloft, this activity should remain sub-severe. However, brief moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds may still accompany some of the stronger cells. Similar to the last few days, most of the activity will diminish near/after sunset with mostly quiet weather expected overnight. The weekend is still shaping up to be mostly dry and hot. Some of the CAMs do show a few diurnally driven showers and storms across the east/southeast on Saturday where a little bit of lift combines with the best humidity. Otherwise, we`re looking at highs in the mid to upper 90s Saturday and Sunday with the heat index values staying between 94 to 101. Winds will generally be from the east/northeast as the high pressure remains west of our region. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 242 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/ /Next Week/ Changes to our weather pattern are still in the forecast for next week. The mid-level ridge across the west will weaken at the same time a stronger long-wave trough settles over the eastern U.S. This will keep most of the southern Plains under northwest flow aloft sending multiple clusters of showers/storms south into the region. At the same time, a strong cold front will travel south early next week. Guidance is coming into better agreement that the front will push south across our region, with daily rain and storm chances through Friday. At this time, the best chances are forecast on Tuesday especially for North Texas with 50-60% chance. Average rainfall totals through next week are generally less than 2 inches for North Texas and less than 1 inch for Central Texas. Based on the latest models, the probability of receiving at least widespread 3" of rain across our region remains less than 10%. Otherwise, we will enjoy the nice slightly cooler weather. While the high temperature will depend on how much rain and cloud cover we get, there`s still a good signal that we will stay in the 80s Wednesday through Friday, slowly warming up by next weekend. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ Outflow boundaries from convective activity earlier in the day have resulted in highly variable wind directions during the past few hours. However, a more uniform SE direction should become established this evening while speeds decrease to around 5 kts. Additional wind shifts are forecast overnight into Saturday morning, with winds veering westerly after midnight followed by northwesterly after sunrise tomorrow as an ill-defined surface boundary progresses southward. There is a small chance for diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity near Waco tomorrow afternoon, but this potential is too low to include in the TAF. Convection should remain absent from D10 airports. VFR will prevail with daytime cumulus around 6 kft. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 96 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 5 5 Waco 72 94 73 95 74 / 5 10 0 5 5 Paris 72 94 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 5 5 Denton 72 97 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 5 5 McKinney 72 96 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 5 5 Dallas 77 98 76 97 78 / 0 0 0 5 5 Terrell 72 96 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 5 5 Corsicana 73 96 74 96 75 / 5 5 0 5 5 Temple 70 94 71 95 72 / 10 20 0 5 5 Mineral Wells 70 96 70 96 71 / 0 0 0 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$