668
FXUS64 KFWD 192012
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
312 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation can be
   expected through next week.

 - A grass fire threat will continue through the rest of the
   weekend into early next week.
 &&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1125 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/
/This Afternoon through Sunday Night/

Little change is expected through the rest of the weekend with
nice weather continuing. Temperatures will steadily creep back
above normal on Sunday with a warming trend expected through next
week. An upper level trough will remain across the Four Corners
region through Sunday keeping a deeper southerly flow in place
across West Texas. Low level moisture and rain chances will be
confined to these areas with some clouds likely skirting our
western counties. An expanding ridge of surface high pressure over
the eastern CONUS will keep North Texas dry with low humidity and
light east winds. The lowest afternoon humidity will
uncharacteristically be across our eastern counties this afternoon
and again on Sunday, and will be accompanied by an elevated grass
fire threat. Otherwise, the weather will remain quiet with
temperatures a degree or two warmer on Sunday.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday through Saturday/

Very warm weather is expected across the region as we head into
late October with above normal high temperatures and no appreciable
rain chances.

The upper low, currently centered over Arizona, will weaken while
lifting northeast to the Central Plains as an upper ridge nudges
in from the southeast. The upper ridge axis will continue to shift
westward through the week while a shortwave moves out of the Northern
Plains towards the East Coast. On average, afternoon highs will be
2 to 5 degrees above normal on Monday and 6 to 12 degrees above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs the second half of the week will cool
slightly, but will still be above normal for late October.

Probably the most noticeable change in the weather next week will
be the return of Gulf moisture which will keep overnight lows
ranging from the upper 50s to the middle 60s, except for some
lower and middle 50s across the east early Tuesday morning.

Even though some moisture will return next week and subsidence
under the ridge will move to the west the second half of the week,
it does not appear moisture or forcing for ascent will be
sufficient for any appreciable rain. There is still a very low
chance for a few light showers across parts of North Texas
Wednesday night/Thursday with the passing shortwave, but we will
keep only silent 10 PoPs in the forecast for now.

Since vegetation will continue to dry through the week, the
threat for fire starts will remain elevated. However, the increase
in low level moisture and sustained wind speeds less than 15 mph
will keep the threat for significant wildfires low.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1125 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with east-southeast winds
around 10 kt. No significant aviation concerns are expected at
this time.

Dunn

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  56  79  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                81  51  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               76  47  79  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              79  49  81  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            79  49  81  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              80  55  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             79  49  81  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           81  52  83  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              83  51  84  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       81  50  82  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$