Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
513 FXUS64 KFWD 220622 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 122 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat will continue through this afternoon with widespread heat index values of 108 to 115 degrees expected. - An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect across North and Central Texas, with heat concerns and headlines likely to continue through the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Expect excessively hot and humid conditions today across much of North and Central Texas as a strong upper-level ridge remains planted across the Central and Southern Plains. A weak backdoor cold front is expected to push westward across the region this afternoon and evening, eventually shifting winds out of the east- northeast later in the day. Unfortunately, most will not observe any real temperature drop today, outside of our northeastern counties where afternoon highs will peak around 99-101. Elsewhere, expect temperatures around 100-105 this afternoon. Persistent humidity will keep afternoon heat indices a bit above ambient temperatures, ranging generally between 105-115 degrees. The current Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning remain unchanged for this afternoon. Outside of the heat, a few CAMs continue to show spotty development late this afternoon into the evening across portions of North and Central Texas. The coverage seems a bit too widespread in the models when taking into account the subsident airmass and the lack of a source of strong ascent. However, I would not be surprised to see a couple of elevated convective attempts near and along the front with the heat and moisture in place. In all honesty, there is a very good chance that the entire region stays dry, but went ahead and added a 10% chance of isolated thunderstorm development for much of Central Texas into western North Texas today to account for the low chance. Continued east to northeast winds tomorrow will allow for a slight dip in afternoon high temperatures, ranging from the mid 90s to around 102. Like days previous, the heat impacts will really stem from higher heat indices. Much of the area outside of the Red River and far northeast will observe peak heat index values up to 105-106 degrees on Thursday, and have issued a Heat Advisory for that. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 While the majority of impacts from what is currently Tropical Storm Bertha will remain to our south as head into the weekend, guidance continues to spread some of the tropical moisture up into our Central and Eastern Texas counties Friday onward. This may bring in some increased cloud cover to the southern portions of the region, keeping temperatures in the mid 90s to around 101 this weekend. Further north across much of North Texas, highs will begin to increase once again into the 100-105 degree range this weekend into early next week. With no drier air filtering in, expect humidity to push afternoon heat index values to between 100-108 each day through the rest of the forecast period. Additional Heat Advisories will likely be needed in the coming days, but this will be decided on each day as we go. Remember to keep cool and hydrated, and to avoid excess time outdoors during the heat of the day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Light and variable winds, with occasional periods of southwesterly direction, will persist through the early morning hours, before settling out of the north near daybreak. Over the course of today, winds will remain around 11kt or less, and will gradually veer a bit more northeast by the afternoon at all sites as a backdoor cold front pushes through the region. Some CAMs continue to promote spotty showers and storms late this afternoon near the airports, but there is still uncertainty on just how much development we will see and where things will begin. As such, have foregone any mention of VCTS/VCSH in the TAFs for now, and will continue to monitor as new guidance comes in. If storms are able to develop this afternoon, the most likely timing would be between 22-02Z. Otherwise, expect northeasterly winds to prevail the rest of the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 104 81 100 81 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 102 81 99 80 / 0 10 0 0 Paris 98 74 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 102 79 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 101 78 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 104 81 100 81 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 101 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 102 79 98 79 / 10 10 0 0 Temple 102 81 99 80 / 10 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 104 78 101 77 / 0 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>093- 100>105-107-115>123-130>135-143>148-157>162-174-175. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-095-106. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ100>105-115>123-130>135-143>148-157>162-174-175. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ129-141-142-156. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater