Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
785 FXUS64 KFWD 200746 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 246 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for parts of the area through 7 PM this evening. - Rain chances will increase today as a weak cold front pushes through the region. - This weekend will be rain-free before a strong cold front brings low rain chances and below-normal temperatures to the region early next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday/ The remnants of the thunderstorms that developed along the cold front in Oklahoma stalled just north of the Red River, but its outflow continues to surge south and has moved into the Metroplex. Behind this boundary, a few isolated storms have slipped southward into adjacent areas of North Texas, warranting an expansion of low rain chances north of the Metroplex through the pre-dawn hours. The CAMs have so far handled the ongoing activity poorly, repeatedly showing rapid dissipation despite its persistence, so confidence in the exact longevity of this activity is lower than normal. Given observed trends, expect the outflow and any existing storms to continue to carry a threat for gusty winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy downpours for the next few hours. As the morning progresses, the slowing boundary and any surviving cold pools should intersect the richer low-level theta-e axis over the region. This will support renewed convective development around or shortly after sunrise, initially near the Red River then gradually spreading south as daytime heating begins. Storm coverage will increase through late morning and the afternoon as the boundary sags south and interacts with mesoscale outflows and deeper moisture. The favored corridor for scattered storms will shift south of I-20 by peak heating as the front/outflow drifts into Central Texas while weak ascent persist aloft. Shear will remain too weak for organized severe weather through the period. The main hazards will be frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, pockets of strong outflow winds, and locally heavy rain from slow moving showers and storms. Brief nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out in urban and poor-drainage areas, particularly where cells merge or train. Activity should wane after sunset with a diurnal minimum in coverage likely Wednesday night. By Thursday, the front will become more ill-defined, but lingering outflow and differential heating boundaries will serve as focal points for renewed convective initiation during the afternoon. Weak background ascent on the periphery of the ridge and convective temperatures in the mid 90s should be sufficient for additional storms, most numerous across Central and East Texas. Overall storm motions will remain slow, so the same hazards apply as Wednesday. Most showers and storms should diminish or push south of the area Thursday night. Despite episodic cloud cover and storm outflows, heat also remains a concern today with highs still in the mid to upper 90s. The combined heat and humidity will once again push peak heat indices into the 100 to 109 degree range prior to any convective cooling. The current configuration and timing of the Heat Advisory generally remains representative of the primary areas with heat concerns for this afternoon. 12 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Night through next Monday/ Any lingering Thursday evening thunderstorm activity should fade with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will trend drier and a bit less convectively active as weak surface ridging noses in behind the fading boundary while the mid-level ridge re-centers over the Desert Southwest. By the weekend, a stronger longwave trough digs from central Canada towards the Great Lakes, turning flow aloft more northwesterly over the Southern Plains and driving a second, more substantial late August cold front southward. Rain chances and at least a modest cool down look to accompany the front. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR will generally prevail through the period. Decaying thunderstorms moving out of Oklahoma have driven an outflow boundary into the D10 airspace this morning. A few isolated storms have also slipped south of the Red River prompting a brief inclusion of VCTS in the North Texas TAFs early this morning. Confidence in direct impacts before sunrise remains low given poor handling of these storms by the models and the presence of multiple competing boundaries across the area. Given the current location of the outflow boundaries generated by the late evening and overnight convection, there is also now a better chance for SHRA/TSRA developing in the vicinity of the Metroplex terminals around or after daybreak (13-14Z). At KACT, scattered convection remains more likely in the afternoon as the main surface boundary pushes into Central Texas along with outflow boundaries from earlier storms across North Texas. VCTS has been introduced from 19-00Z though there is a chance that these storms could be slower to dissipate given the nearby boundaries. Winds are light and variable but will shift to the north-northeast as the frontal boundary/outflow moves across the airport in the afternoon. Amendments are possible today as boundary and storm evolution becomes clearer. 12 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 95 76 95 76 / 20 20 10 5 0 Waco 75 94 74 94 73 / 30 40 20 20 5 Paris 74 94 72 93 70 / 20 20 5 0 0 Denton 74 96 73 96 73 / 20 20 5 5 0 McKinney 74 95 73 95 72 / 20 20 5 5 0 Dallas 78 97 77 95 77 / 30 20 10 5 0 Terrell 74 94 73 94 72 / 30 20 10 5 0 Corsicana 75 95 73 95 73 / 30 30 20 10 0 Temple 74 96 73 95 71 / 40 50 30 30 10 Mineral Wells 72 96 71 95 70 / 20 20 10 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102>107- 118>123-133>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$