040
FXUS64 KFWD 221146
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
546 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler daytime temperatures expected across most of the region
  today in the wake of a weak cold front.

- Above normal temperatures return this weekend with dry weather
  expected.

- Low rain chances return to East TX next Wednesday, and the
  forecast has been trending cooler and drier for entire area
  Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
We are off to a cool start this morning, with most areas
currently in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Temperature trends into the
weekend remain in line with new overnight guidance, and minimal
adjustments were necessary with this morning`s update other than
to incorporate current observations.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday Night/

Another seasonably cool night is underway amid clear skies and
weak cold air advection reinforced by a cold front that is slowly
sliding south-southwest through the region. Minimum temperatures
have been lowered 1-3 degrees from the NBM to account for the good
radiational cooling that should occur over the next several
hours, a known bias of the NBM. Though it is unlikely for
temperatures to reach the freezing mark, the usually colder low-
lying and wind sheltered spots could still dip below 35 degrees by
daybreak.

By this afternoon, the surface high should begin to shift
eastward, allowing weak south winds to return, particularly west
of the I-35 corridor. This will likely result in a pronounced
daytime temperature gradient with highs ranging from near 60
degrees in the northeast to the lower 70s in the southwest. Light
southerly winds coupled with clear skies should result in slightly
warmer but still seasonable overnight temperatures with lows in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 251 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024/
/Saturday through Thanksgiving Day/

The long-term forecast continues to highlight the warming trend
over the weekend, followed by a couple of cold fronts next week
and the potential for some rain just before Thanksgiving Day.

The weather pattern will remain fairly quiet over the weekend
with zonal flow aloft and the surface high pressure to our east.
The return of the southerly winds will result in warmer
afternoons with highs peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s by
Sunday. Breezy conditions are also expected on Sunday given a
tight pressure gradient between the ridge to our east and the next
low pressure system to our west. This low and associated cold
front will travel across our region on Monday, knocking our
temperatures back down to more seasonal values. No rain is
expected with this system, but we will see a large spread in
Monday`s highs as the front moves through during the day. North
Texas will see highs during the morning hours (mainly in the 60s),
but our Central Texas counties may still warm up into the upper
70s to lower 80s as the front arrives later in the day. Widespread
cooler weather is expected on Tuesday before the next system
arrives on Wednesday.

By mid-week, we`re still looking at the next surface front that
could bring some light rain for some of our eastern counties and
cloudy/cooler weather for the rest of us. While there`s still
some uncertainties here and there, the bulk of the guidance show
the front moving over our area Wednesday night with Thanksgiving
day being cool and breezy. Even if the models begin to trend
towards a slower solution, the bulk of the precipitation is still
expected to stay north and east of our area.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals
through the period. This morning`s light north/northeast winds
will become variable for a few hours this afternoon before
settling out of the southeast later today as the surface high
pressure overhead begins to drift east of the area. Wind speeds
should remain at or below 5 kts until after 12Z/23. Other than a
few/scattered passing high clouds this afternoon, SKC is expected
to persist through this TAF cycle.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  44  71  57  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                69  40  74  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               62  37  67  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              64  39  71  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            63  39  70  53  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              65  43  72  56  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             64  39  70  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           66  42  73  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              71  41  76  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       68  39  75  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$