Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
333 FXUS64 KFWD 051045 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 545 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot heat indices up to 106 are expected this weekend for portions of Northeast Texas. - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected across much of North and Central Texas this weekend into next week. - Isolated thunderstorms (10-30% chance) will be possible along and south of US-84 each afternoon and evening this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 With the departure of Edouard`s remnants, a high-amplitude ridge has developed over the Great Plains. With heights increasing into the weekend along with surface high pressure and clear skies, temperatures are expected to be 7-10 degrees above normal. Highs across North Texas will be in the 99-103 range, while Central Texas highs will be slightly cooler (95-100) due to this week`s rainfall. During peak diurnal heating, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop (30-50% chance) across portions of the Brazos Valley, with much more isolated activity possible (10-20% chance) along and east of the I-35 corridor, and along and south of the I-20 corridor. ...A Discussion on the Heat Advisory... With strong mixing expected across much of North Texas, despite afternoon highs in the 99-103 range, dew points in the low and mid-60s will be insufficient for heat indices requiring a Heat Advisory. The current forecast this afternoon has heat indices across much of North Texas in the 101-104 range. While isolated pockets of 105-106 will be possible, coverage and confidence in these heat indices remain too low to issue a Heat Advisory for much of North Texas at this time. The exception looks to be across portions of Northeast Texas where deeper boundary layer moisture will exhibit a stronger resistance to diurnal mixing. Friday afternoon (yesterday), heat indices northeast of a line from Canton to Sherman ranged from 104 to 106. With ridging continuing to build higher heights over the region and an increasingly well established tropical airmass in place at the surface from Northeast Texas eastward, it is expected to have afternoon heat indices where the advisory was issued in the 105-106 range again today. The potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms along and south of the I-20 corridor and east of I-35 has precluded the issuance of a Heat Advisory at this time in this area. While afternoon dew points will likely remain in the 70s, cloud cover from diurnally driven convection will complicate the forecast and likely keep much of this area in the 90s during the afternoon and evening. As such, heat index values will likely be just shy of Heat Advisory criteria (in the 100-104 range). Lastly, the Heat Advisory across portions of Southwest Oklahoma and North-Central Texas is primarily driven by afternoon air temperatures in the 103-105 degree range. These hot temperatures should remain just north and northwest of our northwestern counties, keeping afternoon conditions just shy of Heat Advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 The weather pattern this weekend is expected to stagnate with strong upper-level ridging dominating the central and southeastern CONUS. As such, above average temperatures in the upper-90s and lower-100s will continue Sunday into the upcoming work week. There is, however, one exception to this overall trend. A subtle tropical wave over the Gulf will weaken heights just enough over portions of East-Central and Southeast Texas to bring low chances (10-20%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms each day to the Brazos Valley. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 There is a very low chance (10-15%) for a stray shower or thunderstorm on the southeast side of D10 between 22Z and 01Z today. Otherwise, south flow will prevail, but will vary from southwesterly (190-220) before 17Z to southeasterly (110-160) after 17Z. Windspeeds of 7-13 knots and VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 80 101 80 / 10 0 10 0 Waco 98 76 98 76 / 10 0 20 0 Paris 99 76 100 76 / 10 0 10 0 Denton 100 77 101 76 / 10 0 10 0 McKinney 100 77 99 76 / 10 0 10 0 Dallas 101 80 101 80 / 10 0 10 0 Terrell 100 76 100 75 / 10 0 10 0 Corsicana 96 75 98 76 / 20 10 10 0 Temple 98 75 98 74 / 10 0 30 0 Mineral Wells 101 74 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-095-105>107. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Darrah