Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
470 FXUS64 KFWD 032357 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 657 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms are expected through Friday with the highest rain chances (60-70%) west of Highway 281. - Most of the thunderstorm activity should weaken late Friday afternoon/evening, opening the door for most evening outdoor activities. - Severe storms are not expected, but gusty winds and lightning would still impact outdoor festivities. - Occasional rain chances continue through the weekend and into next week with seasonable high temperatures remaining in the 90s. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025/ /Today and Tomorrow/ General Meteorological Setup: If you don`t remember that there was a Tropical Storm in the Gulf just 3 days ago, you probably aren`t alone. However, it`s effects on our local weather have been noted and will continue to plague the region for the next few days. The biggest impact of Barry is from the surge of tropical moisture across the Southern Plains. The morning Fort Worth RAOB sounding observed a PWAT of 2.22", which is above the 99th percentile for this time of the year. However, moisture alone does not cause precipitation. Since the airmass is generally modestly unstable, it doesn`t take much lift to produce precipitation. The entire forecast area is under a broad area of disorganized large-scale ascent in the mid-levels, which is tapping into low-level moisture and developing isolated to scattered showers across the entire region. A few pockets of enhanced lift have triggered thunderstorms, and the boosted ascent from outflow boundaries are developing additional thunderstorms along and behind the boundaries. Forecast Discussion: Most of the forecast area can expect off/on light rain showers through the rest of the afternoon, with a gradual tapering of rain in the evening with the loss of surface heating. Thunderstorms are expected primarily across Central Texas and the Big Country through the afternoon, largely along and behind a northward moving outflow boundary. The main impact from these storms will be brief heavy downpours. As long as they move over areas that have not received heavy rain earlier in the week, it should not cause too large of an impact. We know there are a lot of outdoor events planned this evening. By-in-large, most of the storms and pockets of heavy rain should dissipate between 6-8 pm, opening the door for most events to be a GO. The exception to this should be across the far western parts of our forecast area where a cluster of storms (currently near Midland) will move into the region this evening and tonight. Expect a pretty significant ramp up of precipitation as a weak shortwave trough starts to meander from west to east across Central Texas tonight and tomorrow. We have increased PoPs to 60-70% across the western part of the forecast area, but even those might be under doing it a bit. Widespread rain with a few embedded storms are expected to be ongoing at daybreak tomorrow, mainly west of I-35 and south of I-20. The rain should linger through much of the morning, gradually decreasing in coverage late in the morning into the early afternoon as it slowly moves east. In the afternoon, precip coverage should decrease across North Texas and increase across eastern Central Texas. The coverage of showers/storms should be more hit and miss in the afternoon. Most, if not all, of the precipitation should come to an end by 6-8 pm as the shortwave trough moves east and heating ends. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025/ /This Weekend and Next Week/ The tropical airmass should linger over the region through the weekend, allowing for isolated to scattered showers and storms to continue. However, the coverage of precip should be much less than today and tomorrow. The moisture will finally disperse throughout the region early next week, bringing a return to seasonal weather in the early to middle parts of next week. By mid-week, a strong ridge will build to our west, and a westerly moving TUTT will move across the Gulf...leaving our area in a bit of a col between the two systems. It`s too soon to know if the ridge will win out and widespread triple digit heat return to the area late next week or if the weakness in the ridge brings increased rain chances. Either way, we do not see any high impact weather events moving across the area in the extended forecast periods. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ The diffuse deep layer remnants of Barry continue to affect much of West Texas, with the northeast periphery of the precipitation shield hovering along the western and southern fringes of D10. Plenty of uncertainty associated with this forecast cycle, but in general believe the bulk of the overnight rain and embedded thunderstorm activity will remain some distance to the west through south of the Metroplex TAF sites, where better moisture and instability persists. Included VCSH at these terminals for most of the overnight period, but do expect to see some brief periods of light shower activity continue across portions of D10 through 15z Friday. Farther south at Waco, where deep layer moisture and weak forcing is better, did go ahead and include two TEMPO shra groups for the 00-03z and 11-15z periods. Confidence in thunder is not great at any of the sites, owing to limited heating and instability, and omitted mention of TSRA with this package. Ceiling forecasts present another challenge in this environment, but in generally showed a trend of lowering VFR ceilings through the night, transitioning to BKN025 MVFR conditions at Waco at 09z, and at the Metroplex TAF sites by 11z. Based on the HREF ceiling probabilities, wasn`t confident about seeing lower MVFR or IFR conditions at the DFW-area TAF sites, but chances are greater at Waco due to its proximity to the more expansive precipitation shield overnight. Southerly surface winds should prevail at all TAF sites through the period, with speeds ranging from 09 to 13 knots. Bradshaw && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 86 75 92 75 / 40 40 20 20 10 Waco 74 86 73 89 72 / 30 40 10 20 10 Paris 73 87 71 91 73 / 30 40 5 10 5 Denton 73 86 73 92 73 / 50 50 20 20 10 McKinney 74 87 73 92 73 / 40 40 20 20 10 Dallas 75 87 74 92 76 / 40 40 20 20 10 Terrell 74 89 73 92 72 / 30 30 10 10 10 Corsicana 75 88 74 92 73 / 20 30 10 20 10 Temple 73 88 73 90 71 / 30 40 10 30 10 Mineral Wells 72 85 72 91 72 / 60 60 20 30 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$