805
FXUS64 KFWD 192049
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
349 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 101 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/
/Through Friday Afternoon/

A strengthening upper level ridge will continue to influence our
weather conditions through tomorrow afternoon. As for today,
expect highs in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in the
mid to upper 70s. A few locations may hit the century mark this
afternoon, but those readings will remain few and far between.
Heat indices will likely reach into the low 100s for several
locations today as well. Otherwise, expect generally sunny skies
and southerly winds around 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

Unseasonably hot and dry conditions will continue through
tomorrow afternoon, with a few more locations reaching the triple
digit threshold. A Heat Advisory is unlikely to be needed, however
folks should still exercise caution if they are outside during
peak heating through the next couple of days. As for rain chances,
North and Central Texas will remain dry through the period.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Onward/

Unseasonably hot weather will continue over the weekend in the
presence of anomalous mid-level heights. A few locations will
reach or exceed 100 degrees on Saturday afternoon while heat
index values climb to 100-105. A shortwave trough traversing the
Central Plains will aid in eroding the ridge axis from the north
by Sunday, helping to drop temperatures a couple of degrees while
also increasing mid/high cloud cover during peak heating. A front
associated with this trough will encroach on the CWA late in the
day and slowly proceed into North Texas heading into Monday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should accompany this feature,
and PoPs have been increased from previous forecasts for the
Sunday night into Monday period.

As the front stalls through the area during the first half of the
week, it will support a couple of additional opportunities for
rainfall through at least Wednesday. A vague overrunning regime
could materialize as the front progressively loses its identity,
while northwest flow prevails aloft. Despite the lack of any
noteworthy cool post-frontal air, the increased cloud cover
should be sufficient to hold highs in the 80s for many areas
during the first half of the workweek. Signs point toward a return
to stronger upper ridging by the end of the week, although this
will depend largely on the eventual evolution of any possible
tropical system in the Gulf. For this reason, the forecast beyond
day 6 contains abnormally high uncertainty.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 101 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...None at this time.

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
period. Generally sunny skies will dominate the region outside of
some fair weather afternoon cumulus. Winds will remain out of the
south, generally less than 10 knots. Occasionally higher gusts
will be possible through the afternoon and early evening hours.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  99  77  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                77 100  73  96  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               73  97  73  95  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              75  99  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            75  99  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              78  99  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             75  98  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           76  99  74  97  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              75  98  72  96  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  99  72  96  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$