Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
119 FXUS64 KFWD 042349 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 649 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers with moderate to heavy rainfall will continue across parts of North Texas through the evening. - Low rain chances will continue over the weekend, but dry weather and hotter temperatures are generally expected next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Regional radar imagery shows widespread tropical showers generally on a downward trend this evening with a notable swirl in the reflectivity west of Hillsboro. This is likely a remnant MCV from earlier convection and may continue to serve as a focus for renewed tropical showers through the late evening, although this remains a little uncertain given a notable loss of instability. Nonetheless, a deep tropical airmass is in place with an axis of 2-2.25" PWs along the I-35 corridor. Weak ascent through the overnight hours will continue to support at least isolated showers into the early morning hours. A better coverage of showers is expected later Saturday morning as heating commences. For the rest of tonight, we`ve adjusted PoPs through midnight based on latest radar trends. The favored area for additional rainfall will be to the northeast of the Metroplex in the immediate short term and to the southwest closer to the aforementioned MCV. Otherwise, periodic cloud cover is expected through early Saturday morning. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Today through Saturday Afternoon/ An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist in portions of Texas through this weekend, particularly across Central and North Texas. A mid-level low is currently located atop Central Texas and the Hill Country, and will continue to slowly meander eastward over the next several days A cluster of showers and storms will persist across our southwestern counties, with more isolated coverage further north and east early this afternoon. Continued weak ascent within a moist and unstable airmass will aid in increased convection coverage across much of the region over the next several hours through the afternoon. Not everyone will observe rain today due to the spotty nature of this activity. For those that end up under or near a storm today - wind shear will be quite lackluster, but enough instability will be present to allow for a few storms capable of gusty, erratic winds and lightning. Additionally, PWATs ~ 2.3" and long, skinny CAPE profiles will promote periods of heavy rain in more developed cells. The threat for flooding is most pertinent for our far southwest, mainly across Mills and Lampasas Counties where 2-3.5 inches of rain has fallen over the last 24 or so hours. For those with outdoor plans this afternoon and evening, make sure to stay weather aware as even nearby storms could impact your location. Be vigilant if out on the water today - gusty, erratic outflow winds may make boating and other water activities hazardous, even if a storm is not directly overhead. Regarding tonight`s rain chances, coverage of storms will wane over this evening, with most activity dissipating around 9-10 PM. However latest guidance keeps isolated showers and storms possible overnight for areas near and west of I-35, which may impact later fireworks shows. Tomorrow, expect additional development over areas near and west of I-35, with gusty winds. lightning, and brief, heavy rain all possible. Afternoon highs will range between the low 80s out west to low 90s in the east due to continued cloud cover and rain-cooled air. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1252 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025/ /Saturday Night Onward/ Coverage of showers and storms will continually decrease as upper level ridging builds east into the Southern Plains. However, a westward moving inverted trough to our south will allow for isolated rain chances to linger the rest of the weekend into the new week. Ridging will continue to generally dominate our sensible weather the rest of next week, with dry and warming conditions expected. Triple digit temperatures continue to be favored across portions of North Texas towards the end of this upcoming week, with probabilities of 100+ degree highs between 30-60%. Heat indices will also rise, with widespread triple digits expected each afternoon after Wednesday. A good portion of the area could reach Heat Advisory criteria, and heat headlines may need to be issued when we get closer in time. Continue to keep updated with the forecast as we get more details! Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Areas of moderate to heavy showers continue to move to the north and east of the major airports this evening with coverage expected to continue decreasing through midnight. We`ll be watching a little circulation to the southwest of the Metroplex which may support additional development through late evening, but this activity should generally remain to the southwest of the major airports. Otherwise, intermittent MVFR/IFR cigs have developed across parts of North Texas in and around areas of ongoing precipitation. VFR should generally prevail through the late evening before widespread MVFR cigs develop early Saturday morning. We do expect additional scattered showers to develop on Saturday across the region, although coverage will likely be less than today. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 88 75 93 76 / 40 20 10 20 5 Waco 72 85 71 89 72 / 40 20 10 10 5 Paris 72 91 72 93 73 / 30 5 5 10 5 Denton 72 88 72 92 73 / 40 20 10 20 5 McKinney 74 90 73 93 73 / 30 10 5 10 5 Dallas 74 89 74 93 75 / 40 10 10 10 5 Terrell 73 91 72 93 73 / 40 10 5 10 5 Corsicana 74 91 73 94 74 / 40 10 5 10 5 Temple 72 86 70 91 71 / 40 30 10 10 5 Mineral Wells 72 87 71 90 71 / 30 30 20 30 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$