Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
326 FXUS64 KFWD 211034 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 534 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Prolonged dry and hot conditions are expected this week with temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s. - An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for areas near and east of Interstate 35 and north of Interstate 20 this afternoon through 8PM tonight for heat index values up to 112 degrees. - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of North and Central Texas through 8PM tonight for heat index values up to 108 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 151 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Hot, humid, and dry conditions are expected today and tomorrow in response to a lingering upper level ridge over much of the southern central Plains. Under mostly sunny skies, afternoon temperatures are expected to range from 97 to 105. Moderate humidity will keep afternoon heat index values a few degrees higher than ambient temperatures, ranging between 100-112. Have expanded the current Heat Advisory to include the rest of our Big Country counties this afternoon. Additionally, areas in our northeast, mainly near/east of I-35 and north of I-20 will be the focus for more excessive heat this afternoon, with highs up to around 105 and heat indices up to 112. Due to this, have decided to upgrade the Heat Advisory to an Extreme Heat Warning for our northeast quadrant this afternoon. Not much relief from the heat is expected overnight, as temperatures bottom out in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Wednesday will be a bit trickier in regards to the temperatures, as guidance shows a backdoor cold front sliding in from the northeast over the day. While still expected to be a hot day, areas in our northeast behind the frontal boundary may observe slightly "cooler" temperatures and heat indices, which would put somewhat of a wrench in specific locations for any Heat Advisories and/or Extreme Heat Warnings. Currently, temperatures will peak between 98 to 105, with heat indices up to 112-113. For now, will just take Advisory issuances day by day, and will allow the day shift to make the final configuration for Wednesday. Nonetheless, make sure to stay cool and hydrated as we go through the first half of this week! A couple of the medium and short range models are starting to pulse up some late afternoon showers and storms on Wednesday with the intrusion of the backdoor front. However, with the high still bearing down overhead and only a meager mid-level moisture layer, there is uncertainty on just how much would even develop. Will keep the forecast dry for now, but will keep an eye on future model runs for any better alignment. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 151 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Slightly cooler temperatures from our backdoor front will stick around on Thursday, though afternoon highs will still peak in the mid 90s to around 102-103. Heat indices are expected to reach between 99-109. A bit of uncertainty comes into play towards the end of the week and into this upcoming weekend, as what is now Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to move west near/along the Gulf coast into Southern Texas. Moisture from Bertha may spread into our southern zones heading into the weekend, with a low potential for isolated showers and storms this weekend. However, the majority of this moisture is expected to remain further south at this time, meaning rain chances may also remain to our south. Model guidance continues to be split on the track of tropical moisture (GFS remains a bit more excited about it than the ECMWF), so will continue to keep an eye on future model runs and if there is better agreement before going wholesale on any rain chances. Otherwise, afternoon highs will remain in the upper 90s to around 103-104 each afternoon Friday onward, with head indices up to around 110. Additional Heat Advisories (and potentially Extreme Heat Warnings) will likely be needed, but the final decisions will be made in the coming days. Make sure to stay cool and hydrated, and avoid excess time outdoors. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 VFR will prevail at all TAF sites, with just some diurnal mid- level clouds expected this afternoon. Southerly winds will begin to veer a bit more west-southwest after daybreak, but will eventually become variable in direction this afternoon with speeds between 5-7 kt. Winds will temporarily settle out of the south this evening, but will become light in speed and once again veer from southwest to northeast overnight. Northeasterly winds with speeds between 5-7 kt will prevail through tomorrow morning at the D10 airports. ACT will remain out of the west-southwest through tomorrow morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 105 84 104 82 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 100 81 101 82 / 0 0 10 0 Paris 100 79 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 105 81 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 104 81 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 105 85 104 82 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 103 80 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 101 82 101 80 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 100 80 102 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 103 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-100>102- 115>117-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater