444
FXUS64 KFWD 060016
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
716 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The rest of this weekend will be cloudy, damp and well below
  average with highs in the 50s.

- Next week will be clear and dry, with afternoon highs warming
  into the 70s and 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday Night/

A relatively cool and breezy night is ahead for much of the
region, all thanks to yesterday`s cold front. The main system
responsible for the previous days` thunderstorm activity is
finally moving overhead tonight. As it does so, isentropic ascent
on the back side of the system will lead to drizzle and light rain
showers across North Texas through the night. This precipitation
should remain light, thus, no hazards are expected.

The precipitation will continue shifting eastward overnight with
much of the rain east of our region by sunrise. The cloudy skies
will linger a bit longer, however, skies will begin to clear from
west to east through the afternoon. With continued cold air
advection in place, Sunday`s high temperatures will stay in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. This is between 25-30 degrees below normal
for this time of the year!

The below normal temperatures will persist through Sunday night
as most locations stay in the lower to mid 30s. Areas west of I-35
will likely see overnight low temperatures between 30-32 degrees.
Given this late-season freeze, a Freeze Watch is now in place for
the aforementioned area.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 104 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025/
/Monday through Friday/

In the wake of our weekend storm system, an extended period of
ridging aloft will allow surface high pressure to dominate across
the entire region throughout the upcoming work week. This will
bring sunny skies and warming temperatures each afternoon.
Afternoon highs in the 60s on Monday will warm into the 70s by
Tuesday. Mid week afternoon highs are expected to be above
normal, with most seeing temperatures climb into the 80s.

By Friday, there is some signal in medium range guidance for a
cold front to dive south into the area. However, there are
significant discrepancies in front timing and strength between
models and model runs. As such, it is unclear at this time what,
if any impact this would have on temperatures heading into next
weekend. Regardless of how the potential cold front plays out at
the end of this forecast period, no precipitation is expected
heading into next weekend at this time.

Darrah

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

MVFR and gusty northerly winds will persist through the night
across all TAF sites. Sustained winds around 15 knots can be
expected with intermittent gusts approaching 30 kts through
tomorrow morning. There continues to be a low potential for IFR
and drizzle within D10, however, the greatest probabilities remain
north and west of the immediate TAF sites. If probabilities
increase in the coming hours, a mention of drizzle or rain, along
with a reduction in visibility, may be warranted through early
Sunday morning.

MVFR skies will persist through much of the day before
improvements to VFR commence closer to 03Z Monday. Northerly
winds will persist, generally remaining between 10-15 knots
tomorrow afternoon.

Hernandez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    40  51  38  66  45 /  30   0   0   0   0
Waco                41  51  36  65  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               42  47  35  62  40 /  40   5   0   0   0
Denton              36  51  31  65  39 /  30   0   0   0   0
McKinney            39  49  34  63  41 /  30   0   0   0   0
Dallas              41  51  38  65  45 /  20   0   0   0   0
Terrell             41  49  35  63  40 /  20   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           43  51  38  65  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              41  52  35  68  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       36  52  32  68  39 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-129>131-141>143-156.

&&

$$