Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
226 FXUS64 KFWD 141926 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 226 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly rain-free conditions will linger across North Texas through sunset. Farther south, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through sunset Sunday. - More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday night across a good portion of North and Central TX. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across Central Texas late tonight and Monday, and isolated flash flooding will be a threat. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 In the wake of the convective complex that moved through much of North Texas this morning, much of the area, particularly along and north of the I-20 corridor, remains relatively cool and well stabilized. As the afternoon progresses, the residual showers across the northern counties should dissipate, and the regions of clearing will increase in size. While any additional widespread precipitation is unlikely before sunset, it`s possible enough late day insolation will occur to induce some renewed destablization, and hence a few new additional showers or perhaps thunderstorms. Have generally held PoPs in the 20-30% range from I-20 northward. Otherwise, generally partly to mostly sunny skies should be the rule, with temperatures in the rain- cooled areas eventually rebounding into the upper 80s. In the immediate Red River counties, readings will struggle just to reach the lower 80s, making for a nice mid June afternoon. South of the I-20 corridor, especially across the southern third of our forecast area, a much warmer and more unstable airmass will hold sway through the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through sunset, with coverage ranging from 40-50% across the area. While a respite from widespread precipitation is expected across all of North and Central Texas this evening, redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms should begin to occur after midnight as another subtle shortwave drops into the region, embedded in the broad northwesterly flow regime dominating much of the Central U.S. This synoptic scale lift will be augmented by lower and mid level convergence occurring in the vicinity of a frontal zone across Central Texas. Have depicted the highest PoPs across the southern half of the forecast area from late tonight through the morning hours Monday. The combination of this lift, accompanied by high precipitable water values, creates the potential for heavy rainfall overnight into Monday. Believe amounts for the most part will remain in the 1 to 3 inch range across this area, but a few spots may top out anywhere from 3 to 5 inches, particularly in the belt between Lampasas, Temple and Centerville. With considerable antecedent rainfall occurring in many of these area, have opted to issue a Flood Watch for these counties from this evening through Monday afternoon. Believe the greatest risk for heaviest rainfall, and potential flash flooding, will exist from the pre- dawn hours tomorrow morning through midday. In contrast to the heavier rain threat across the south, the counties north of I-20/I-30 will see less coverage Monday, and lower PoPs are depicted in these areas as a result. High temperatures areawide on Monday will top out anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees below normal for mid June, making for a reasonably pleasant summer day. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Following a relatively cool and wet interval to start the upcoming week, large-scale lift will diminish across the region, limiting additional widespread rainfall and inducing a return to much warmer, but more June-like temperatures through Thursday. High temperatures will climb into the mid and upper 90s, with heat indices exceeding 100 degrees in many areas by Thursday. Another period of lift, associated with renewed troughing and the potential approach of a weak cold front, will create a renewed opportunity for shower and thunderstorm activity Friday and Saturday. Coverage will likely be greatest across Central Texas, in closer proximity to any enhanced moisture associated with the disturbed weather expected in the northwest Gulf this week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 In the wake of the morning convection, the environment across North Texas, particularly across D10, will remain reasonably stable through at least 21z, apart from a few residual showers between DFW and TXK. As the afternoon progresses, however, enough clearing and heating may occur to induce some limited redevelopment of showers, or perhaps even a thunderstorm or two. Have maintained PROB30s in the Metroplex TAFs through sunset, though in all honesty, am not confident at all that any additional convection will occur. Apart from this, VFR conditions should dominate the D10 TAF sites, with clouds eroding through the afternoon and evening. A northwesterly surface flow regime should continue across North Texas through this evening. Farther south, the atmosphere remains much warmer and more unstable. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across Central Texas through the mid afternoon, at least. For Waco, maintained a TEMPO for showers through 21z. Coverage should abate after that as the atmosphere gets worked over a bit in that area. Nevertheless, maintained VCSH with a PROB30 for Waco through 03z this evening. Winds will initially remain southerly, but a shift to the northeast should occur by mid afternoon as the boundary from this morning`s North Texas convection reaches this TAF site. MVFR ceilings should redevelop at all TAF sites late tonight, and precipitation activity should tick back up as a renewed period of large scale lift ensues. Have maintained PROB30 mentions for SHRA from roughly 08z to 13z in the DFW area, but would not be totally surprised to see TEMPO conditions included in later forecasts, if the forcing comes in stronger than expected. While instability will not be overly great through Monday morning, there will likely be enough to induce some isolated thunderstorm development, not unlike what we saw in the DFW area this morning. MVFR conditions at the D10 and Waco TAF sites should give way to VFR ceilings after 16z, as morning heating impacts the boundary layer. With weak high pressure persisting over the Central Plains, a a northeasterly flow regime should continue across D10 through 18z Monday, with speeds averaging 5 to 10 knots. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 83 71 89 / 50 40 10 0 Waco 72 81 71 86 / 80 80 20 30 Paris 69 79 66 85 / 50 60 10 0 Denton 67 82 67 88 / 50 30 10 0 McKinney 69 81 68 87 / 50 40 10 0 Dallas 71 84 71 90 / 50 40 10 0 Terrell 70 81 69 87 / 60 60 20 10 Corsicana 72 83 72 88 / 80 80 30 30 Temple 73 82 72 86 / 90 80 40 30 Mineral Wells 67 82 66 88 / 50 30 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday evening for TXZ156>158-160-162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bradshaw LONG TERM....Bradshaw AVIATION...Bradshaw