991
FXUS64 KFWD 222320
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
520 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light rain will continue to affect areas along and
  south of the I-20/I-30 corridors through Sunday morning.

- Warm and dry weather is expected next week with sunny skies and
  and highs in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
North Texas is mostly sunny late this afternoon while clouds and
scattered showers remain across Central Texas. Temperatures have
finally climbed well above freezing, ranging from the middle 40s
across Central Texas with upper 40s and lower 50s elsewhere.

Clouds and scattered showers will expand northward this evening
and overnight with the arrival of a shortwave. A few rumbles of
thunder across the far southern zones can`t be ruled out.

The current forecast as detailed below is in great shape and no
major changes are needed at this time.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Today Through Sunday Night/

A much warmer day across North and Central Texas today with
current temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Radar this afternoon
shows some light rain continues across our Central Texas counties
ahead of an approaching weak upper trough over northern Mexico.
As this system moves into and across Texas tonight into Sunday
morning, light rain is expected to increase in coverage and spread
northward into North Texas to near the I-20 corridor based on CAMs
and global models. However, rain will remain scattered and on the
light side so PoPs will be kept low with slight chance pops near
I-20 to high chance pops at our southern CWA border. Increasing
cloud cover and weak WAA is expected to keep temperatures above
freezing tonight across areas that will see rain in North and
Central Texas with lows in the 30s. However, there is a slim
possibility for some brief freezing rain in North Texas as
temperatures could be close to freezing. Like we saw in our
Central Texas counties this morning, though, should any FZRA occur
it would be brief and of little impact. All rain should exit the
area by Sunday afternoon, with a significantly warmer day
anticipated as upper level winds become more westerly. Highs
should reach the mid 50s in our east up to the upper 60s in our
west. With skies clearing out Sunday night, low temperatures will
get chilly once again into the mid 30s to around 40.

Shamburger

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 242 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025/
/Monday Through Next Weekend/

After the coldest week of the season, the upcoming week will be
sunny with above normal temperatures. Rain chances will return
next weekend.

Generally zonal flow will dominate during the upcoming week. While
subtropical ridging will remain equatorward of our latitude, the
pattern will keep the arctic air largely confined to Canada. Our
current warming trend will return 70s to areas along and west of
the I-35 corridor on Monday and to the entire region on Tuesday.
Although a weak front will slide through the region on Wednesday,
temperatures on Thursday will still reach the mid to upper 60s.
South winds will return Friday with highs in the 70s regionwide
Friday and into the upcoming weekend. A storm system will
approach from the west, returning rain chances from the opening
days of March.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Scattered showers currently across Central Texas will increase
in coverage through the night but stay mainly south and east of
the Metroplex TAF sites. Ceilings will lower later this evening
but likely remain low end VFR at the Metroplex terminals. Waco
will have a better chance of a brief shower along with MVFR
ceilings from mid evening through sunrise Sunday.

The wind will remain light and variable but generally from the
south to southeast. Wind speeds will stay at or below 5 knots
through Sunday afternoon.

79

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    36  60  40  71  47 /  20   5   0   0   0
Waco                39  61  39  72  47 /  20   5   0   0   0
Paris               31  56  35  67  42 /  10   5   0   0   0
Denton              33  60  36  70  43 /  20   0   0   0   0
McKinney            33  59  37  69  44 /  20   5   0   0   0
Dallas              36  61  40  71  47 /  20   5   0   0   0
Terrell             35  58  37  68  45 /  20  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           39  58  39  70  48 /  20  10   0   0   0
Temple              36  62  38  73  45 /  20   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       33  65  36  76  43 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$