Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
066 FXUS64 KFWD 232300 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 600 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and mostly dry weather will continue through the remainder of the weekend. - A cold front will arrive early next week, bringing below normal temperatures and daily rain chances through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1249 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ /This Weekend/ Near seasonal temperatures are forecast this weekend with highs in the mid/upper 90s with heat index values in the low 100s. The area is between major weather systems, so very light winds are forecast all weekend. Isolated showers and/or thunderstorms have been introduced to the forecast for most locations generally along and south of I-20 this afternoon. Observed and forecast soundings indicate a moist and unstable boundary layer from the surface all the way up to a stout subsidence inversion based near 700 mb. Lift in the lower levels will trigger an expansive cumulus field this afternoon, and due to the stout subsident inversion trapping the moisture in the lowest ~10 kft of the atmosphere, expect few updrafts to precipitate. The lack of a focused source of ascent should keep the coverage of precip around 10% for most of the area and around 20% across eastern Central Texas where the subsidence inversion is a little higher/weaker. Gusty winds will be possible with any storms, but nothing out of the ordinary for late August thunderstorms. All precip should come to an end with the loss of heating this evening. Similar weather is forecast tomorrow, but with most of the precip remaining to our southeast. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1249 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ /Next Week/ The subsidence inversion keeping a lid on deep convection today will move toward the Gulf Coast by Sunday night and be replaced with active northwest flow aloft...everyone`s favorite words, right? A strong high pressure center/cool airmass will also build over the eastern CONUS next week, sending a backdoor cold front into portions of North and Central Texas that stalls in the area through the middle to late parts of next week. The active northwest flow pattern and stalled front will bring a daily threat of precipitation to almost all of North and Central Texas. The main sources of ascent for precip will come in the form of passing shortwave troughs that trigger MCSs (mainly to our north) and diurinially-driven showers and storms in the vicinity of the front (wherever the boundary resides on any given day). The first of these MCSs will develop late tomorrow afternoon well to our NW and move into Central/Southern Oklahoma Sunday night. Some of the CAM guidance has a strong outflow boundary making a run for Western North Texas early Monday morning that would stall over North Texas Monday afternoon. While the current NBM forecast is dry except along the Red River, I wouldn`t be surprised to see PoPs nudge upward as we move into the HiRes guidance window. Moving beyond Monday, most of the guidance has the synoptic front moving into the region Monday night/Tuesday, resulting in a mild and somewhat breezy day Tuesday. There are still differences in the deterministic guidance regarding how far southwest the cool air will get, so we`re still going with the blended guidance/NBM for our temperature forecast next week. Our PoP forecast also calls for daily rain chances, but not a total washout of the week as the rain is forecast to come and go in multiple rounds. It`s still hard to get a handle on rain amounts. The median (50th percentile) value of QPF through Friday is around 1" along the Red River and less than 0.25" for Central Texas. However, the mean value approaches 2" for eastern North Texas and 0.75" for Central Texas. Large differences in the median and mean are not terribly uncommon, but it does indicate that a few members have much higher rainfall totals that skew the mean value up. Ok, so what does that mean? It`s just a fancy way of saying there is uncertainty in the forecast...if the front were to go further into Central Texas and the ridge to our SW flattens some, portions of North Texas will receive multiple rounds of heavy rain. As it stands right now, the heavier rain should stay in Oklahoma...but its worth noting that there is the potential for the heavier rain to sag into portions of North Texas next week. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail through the period with diurnal cumulus at 6-7 kft. Winds will remain NNE through tomorrow afternoon before veering to ESE by tomorrow evening. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 96 77 96 74 / 0 0 0 10 10 Waco 72 95 74 95 73 / 5 0 0 5 5 Paris 72 94 72 93 68 / 5 5 5 10 30 Denton 72 96 74 96 71 / 5 0 0 10 20 McKinney 72 96 74 96 71 / 5 0 0 10 20 Dallas 76 97 78 97 74 / 0 0 0 10 10 Terrell 72 96 73 95 71 / 0 0 0 10 10 Corsicana 73 96 75 96 73 / 0 0 0 5 5 Temple 71 96 72 96 72 / 5 0 0 5 5 Mineral Wells 70 95 72 96 71 / 5 0 0 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$