Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
744 FXUS64 KFWD 312331 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 631 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and mostly dry weather continues through Tuesday. - Moisture associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will bring increasing rain chances Tuesday night and Wednesday, especially across eastern North and Central Texas. - Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across the southeastern counties before above-normal heat returns late week. - Elevated fire weather concerns will persist today amid hot, dry conditions and worsening drought. && .UPDATE... Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Grids have been updated to include the NHC forecast wind field around Tropical Depression 5 tomorrow night into Wednesday morning (across the southeast zones), as the system approaches the Brazos Valley. The winds will not be very strong, but will flow cyclonically around the center of the depression. HTI grids were also added to include the potential for heavy rain and flooding, primarily for locations south of I-20 and east of I-35 tomorrow night and Wednesday. Low POPs (<20%) were also expanded northward to include isolated convection along the I-20 corridor Tuesday afternoon. Will otherwise keep and eye the evolution of the tropical system while monitoring the ongoing wildfire threat. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 The 594 dam subtropical ridge that dominated the Southern Plains over the weekend will continue shifting east toward the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley through Tuesday. While the ridge remains the primary influence locally today, its eastward migration will gradually open the door for deeper Gulf moisture to spread inland from the southeast. Today should therefore be the final largely uncomplicated hot and dry day across North and Central Texas, with highs near or above 100 degrees across much of the region. Afternoon dewpoints continue to mix lower than blended guidance, keeping heat indices relatively close to the ambient temperature. Combined with very dry fuels and low afternoon humidity, elevated fire weather concerns will continue, especially across western North Texas. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will approach the Upper Texas coast Tuesday while moving around the southern periphery of the ridge. Direct impacts from the system will remain well southeast of the forecast area through the short term period, but increasing southeasterly flow will begin drawing deeper moisture into Central and East Texas. Rain chances will consequently increase across our southeastern counties Tuesday afternoon, with the better coverage still expected southeast of the CWA through the daytime hours. Increasing humidity will push heat indices upward, but the coverage and duration of advisory level values remain too limited for a headline at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 The more notable forecast change occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday as the tropical system moves inland and weakens. This will not be a complete breakdown of the upper ridge, but rather a localized weakness moving northward around its western periphery. Global deterministic and ensemble guidance generally support a northwestward and eventually northward turn of the remnant system, though confidence remains lower in how long a coherent circulation survives inland. Some solutions maintain a weak remnant low or vorticity maximum into eastern North and Central Texas, resulting in a notable northwestward expansion of rain chances compared to previous forecasts. Southeasterly low-level flow would transport deeper moisture inland while weak convergence and ascent near the remnant circulation reduce inhibition and make showers and thunderstorms less dependent on peak daytime heating. Accordingly, rain chances increase Tuesday night and Wednesday across eastern Central Texas and spread into eastern North Texas, including at least parts of the DFW Metroplex. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible where deeper tropical moisture overlaps the remnant circulation, particularly across the southeastern counties, although the greater flooding threat should remain closer to Southeast Texas. The other meaningful impact will be on temperatures. Increasing humidity alone would favor higher heat indices, but greater cloud cover and scattered convection should hold daytime temperatures several degrees lower across eastern portions of the area Wednesday. This competing influence is one reason confidence in heat headline coverage decreases after Tuesday despite the increasingly humid air mass. Rain chances should gradually decrease Wednesday night into Thursday, but the exact timing will depend on how quickly the remnant circulation weakens. A faster dissipating system would allow rain to end sooner and temperatures to rebound, while a slower solution would maintain clouds and scattered convection across eastern portions of the area into Thursday. By late week and the Labor Day weekend, the tropical influence should diminish and attention will return to the subtropical ridge. Guidance differs on its exact position and strength, but the prevailing ensemble signal continues to favor above normal temperatures across North and Central Texas. Most areas should return to predominantly dry conditions Friday into the weekend as ridging becomes the stronger influence once again, though confidence in the details decreases with time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Southeast winds will briefly veer to the south Tuesday morning, but will start to back to a more east direction Tuesday afternoon and evening as TD 5 begins to influence the wind field. Wind speeds should remain fairly low, however, or generally in the 10-15 kt range, so will stick with the one-line TAFs indicating southeast winds for simplicity. The exception is KACT, where a second line indicating VCSH was added as rain showers begin to approach late in the period. MVFR ceilings will spread north around the east flank of the system late Tuesday night, but would likely not arrive until Wednesday morning. There is an outside shot (10%) of a thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon, but too low to mention in any of the TAFs at this juncture. Better opportunities for convection may occur on Wednesday as the tropical system moves slowly to the northwest. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 100 79 98 / 0 10 0 20 Waco 77 98 75 96 / 0 10 20 30 Paris 76 98 75 95 / 0 10 0 20 Denton 77 100 76 99 / 0 10 0 10 McKinney 76 100 75 96 / 0 10 0 20 Dallas 81 100 79 98 / 0 10 0 20 Terrell 76 99 75 95 / 0 10 10 40 Corsicana 77 99 75 94 / 0 10 30 60 Temple 75 99 74 98 / 0 10 10 30 Mineral Wells 73 100 73 100 / 0 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...30