425
FXUS64 KFWD 291922
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
222 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New LONG TERM UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible
  across all of North and Central Texas through the evening. A
  few storms could be strong to severe with a hail threat.

- Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region
  on Thursday and especially Friday with rainfall amounts of 1 to
  3 inches expected. Some flooding will be possible during this
  time.

- Dry and seasonably cooler weather is forecast over the weekend.

&&


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The weather pattern will remain fairly active in the short-term
period as scattered elevated showers and storms continue to move
across portions of North and Central Texas. Latest surface
analysis shows yesterday`s cold front currently near our southern
Central Texas counties with 850-700mb frontogenesis near the I-20
corridor in North Texas. Additional lift associated with a mid-
level passing wave will continue to support scattered showers and
storms through the evening. Sufficient elevated instability will
result in a few strong to severe storms with large hail (~1.5-2
inches) and isolated damaging winds possible. While our eastern
and southern counties near the surface boundary will have the best
potential to see any severe weather this afternoon/evening,
isolated hail up to 1-1.5 inches will still be possible near and
along the I-20 corridor. Pockets of heavy rain may also occur with
this activity resulting in at least some minor flooding.
Rain/storm chances will diminish this evening from north to south
as the main source of ascent moves out of the area, but widespread
clouds will remain across the region through tomorrow.

The next upper level disturbance will arrive during the day
tomorrow, bringing more showers and embedded storms. The current
scenario shows showers developing across West Texas and the Hill
Country region early Thursday morning, spreading northward into
our CWA. The highest coverage of rain during the morning hours
will be across Central Texas, shifting into North Texas during
the afternoon and evening. Some instances of flash flooding may
occur if training occurs over any particular area across the
region, especially over those locations that have seen recent
rainfall. More widespread precipitation is expected Thursday night
into Friday with more details below.

Sanchez

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The extended portion of the forecast remains fairly unchanged
with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
The main threat will be the potential for heavy rain and at least
some isolated flash flooding. Latest guidance continues to show
additional rainfall totals between 1-3 inches with isolated
higher amounts closer to 4 inches (~10% chance over portions of
Central TX). Expect forecast details to continue to be adjusted as
high-resolution guidance better capture the mesoscale features.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

With strong forcing for ascent overspreading all of North and
Central Texas late Thursday night, convection (mainly showers)
will increase in intensity near the remnant frontal boundary which
will still be across our southern counties. This activity will
slowly spread north through the night into early Friday morning as
the strongest height falls move into North Texas. Widespread
moderate to heavy rain is expected across much of the region
through the day Friday with periodic showers and thunderstorms.
The heaviest rainfall amounts will likely be near and south of
I-20 where 2 to 3 inches of rain is expected. Lighter but non-
trivial amounts are expected north of I-20 and should total 1 to
1.5 inches through Friday evening. While there is some potential
for flooding of low lying areas, the overall rain rates and speed
of the entire system should keep the threat of flash flooding
isolated to areas where any training convection sets up. All of
this activity will move to the east of the area late Friday night
into Saturday morning as the main upper trough pulls away. With
widespread rain and cloud cover, high temperatures will likely
remain in the upper 50s making for a cold first day of May.

A nice weekend is expected in the wake of all the rain on Friday.
Temperatures will warm into the lower 70s on Saturday and into the
upper 70s and lower 80s on Sunday with mostly sunny skies.
Pleasant weather will continue into the early part of next week
with additional storm chances likely by the latter part of next
week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

We continue to highlight the threat for a few storms to impact
some of the North Texas sites through the afternoon. In addition
to occasional lightning, there could be small hail with some of
this activity. The thunderstorm threat will shift south of
Metroplex sites after 00Z, but some lingering rain may persist
into the evening.

With plenty of low-level moisture in place, widespread MVFR
ceilings will return tonight, near or just after midnight.
Ceilings will continue to deteriorate to IFR by early Thursday
morning as light rain spread across the region. Poor flying
conditions will persist much of the day Thursday as waves of
precipitation moves overhead in addition to low ceilings/vsby.
Better thunderstorm chances will arrive Thursday night into Friday
morning. Otherwise, northerly-easterly winds will persist through
the period.

Sanchez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested across East Texas and
generally along/south of I-20/30. Even if activation is not
locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  61  67  54 /  50  30  60  60
Waco                70  63  69  55 /  40  30  60  80
Paris               70  57  66  52 /  60  20  30  40
Denton              67  57  66  52 /  30  20  60  60
McKinney            68  58  66  53 /  40  20  50  60
Dallas              70  62  67  54 /  50  30  60  60
Terrell             69  60  67  53 /  60  40  50  70
Corsicana           71  63  70  56 /  60  40  60  80
Temple              76  63  72  56 /  50  30  50  90
Mineral Wells       67  56  66  51 /  30  20  60  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$