Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
173 FXUS64 KFWD 021131 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 531 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will continue into next week. - Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night through next weekend. Some severe storms may be possible. The potential for flooding may increase this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 A cold front moved into North Texas yesterday afternoon and evening, however, it has now stalled prior to reaching the I-20 corridor in North Texas. As of 1 AM, this stalled frontal boundary stretched near Bowie to Jacksboro to Graham with northerly winds to the north of this boundary. Elsewhere, southerly winds will persist as no additional southward movement of the front is expected. With the boundary providing some surface convergence, there will continue to be a very low chance of a shower along the Red River this early morning. By sunrise, cloudy skies will prevail throughout the region, likely lingering through the early afternoon. With the clouds in place, areas behind the front will likely remain in the lower to middle 70s this afternoon. South of the front, upper 70s to lower 80s will continue. Tonight`s temperatures will stay in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 A rather active weather period will commence by the middle of the week as the weather pattern shifts from high pressure dominant to slight troughing late Tuesday into Wednesday. Prior to the arrival of the more active weather pattern, the stalled front mentioned in the short-term discussion will shift north by Tuesday morning. This will leave all of North and Central Texas in a warm and humid airmass. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 80s across the region with moisture levels expected to the be the highest across East Texas. There should be enough warm air advection for a few showers to develop in the afternoon in East Texas. By Wednesday, a front is slated to once again move into the region, stalling near the I-20 corridor by the afternoon. As the front stalls, a pair of shortwaves will move across, enhancing forcing for ascent throughout the region. Along the immediate front, a few showers and storms will be possible, however, the threat for strong to severe storms will increase by the afternoon. The key element in determining the area of highest concern will be the positioning of the front when it stalls. Ahead of the front, instability will climb to around 1500 to 2000 J/kg with lapse rates near 8 C/km. This should promote the development of hail, some of which could be large. Strong to damaging winds cannot be ruled out either given near 40 kt deep-layer shear. By Thursday, a northward retreat of the front is expected, once again returning all of North and Central Texas into a warm and humid air mass. Highs in the 80s will be in place both Thursday and Friday, however, rain chances do return to the forecast by Friday afternoon as a dryline develops just west of our region. With another potential front on Saturday, rain chances will remain high through the weekend. With multiple rounds of rain (some of it could be heavy), there will be a threat for flooding through the weekend. We`ll continue to monitor the position of the trough out west, along with any stalled boundaries that may be the focus for precipitation over the coming days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Concerns: MVFR to IFR this morning, then again tonight. A low deck of clouds has move in from the south, impacting much of North and Central Texas. MVFR and IFR will dominate this morning with improvement to VFR expected by early this afternoon. Afternoon winds will remain out of the south, generally between 5-10 kts. After the VFR skies this afternoon and evening, another round of MVFR will arrive tonight into tomorrow morning. Similarly, the low clouds will erode by late in the morning. Breezy south winds are expected tomorrow with occasional gusts to around 20 mph. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 61 84 65 / 10 0 10 10 Waco 79 61 85 65 / 0 0 10 0 Paris 72 59 80 63 / 10 10 20 10 Denton 78 58 84 60 / 10 0 10 10 McKinney 76 60 83 63 / 10 10 10 10 Dallas 80 63 84 66 / 10 0 10 10 Terrell 78 60 84 64 / 10 0 20 10 Corsicana 80 63 86 66 / 10 0 20 0 Temple 81 61 87 64 / 0 0 10 0 Mineral Wells 81 57 87 60 / 10 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez