Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
166 FXUS64 KFWD 090747 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 247 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a low chance for storms to brush the Red River counties late tonight into early Sunday morning. - A more organized round of thunderstorms is expected Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves into the region. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 A few lingering showers and non-severe thunderstorms continue to move south across western portions of North and Central Texas. This activity will gradually weaken through the next couple of hours. The cold front that generated yesterday`s thunderstorm activity will retreat northward in response to lee cyclogenesis along the Front Range. For North and Central Texas, this means we`ll have to contend with a moist and moderately unstable airmass this afternoon. As the area of low pressure migrates southeast, closer to the Texas Panhandle, a dryline will sharpen across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Thunderstorms are once again expected to develop well northwest of our area and may attempt to organize into a few clusters through the evening. The overall flow pattern should keep the more organized activity north of the forecast area, but there remains a low chance that storms or associated outflow boundaries could brush the Red River counties late tonight early early Sunday morning. Any storms that make it this far south would likely be weakening, however gusty winds and small hail would still be possible. Otherwise, tonight will remain mild and humid with lows generally in the 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 The primary forecast concern remains the potential for widespread thunderstorms and severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening. A cold front will move southward into North Texas on Sunday while a seasonably moist and unstable airmass remains in place ahead of it. Daytime heating, moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, and increasing large-scale ascent should allow strong instability to develop by early afternoon. Thunderstorms may already be ongoing just north of the Red River early Sunday, but additional development is expected along the front as it moves into our region. Thunderstorm coverage should increase through the afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms possible across North Texas before activity spreads south and east into the rest of the region. Initial storms may include multicell clusters and embedded supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, storm mergers and cool pool interactions should favor a transition into one or more bowing clusters. If this evolution occurs, damaging winds would become the primary hazard, especially along and south of I-20 during the late afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible Sunday into Sunday night. Average rainfall amounts of around 1" appear reasonable for many locations, with localized higher totals (2"+) possible where storms train or repeatedly move over the same areas. The front and associated convection should continue moving south and east Sunday night into early Monday. Rain chances will gradually decrease from northwest to southeast on Monday as drier air filters into the region. A few lingering showers and storms may persist across Central Texas early Monday before the system exits. A quieter and more pleasant stretch of weather is expected for the middle of next week as ridging builds over West Texas and weak surface high pressure settles into the region. Temperatures will trend back into the upper 80s to lower 90s by the latter half of the week, with rain chances remain glow for much of the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 Convective activity over the last few hours has remained on the peripheries of the D10 airspace with minimal thunderstorm impacts to the TAF sites. The cluster of storms continues to surge south and will remain well west of KACT. Wind direction varies greatly as westerly winds are ongoing across the DFW Metroplex with southerly winds across Central Texas. MVFR ceilings are ongoing across much of the region and this will continue through the morning hours. IFR conditions may impact KACT for a few hours this morning as ceilings drop to near 800 ft. Improvements should commence beyond 14z. Most of the guidance continues to suggest northerly winds will arrive across North Texas late this morning and linger through the mid afternoon hours. The northerly winds will be temporary as southeasterly winds return late this afternoon with continued VFR skies. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 69 84 62 / 0 0 80 70 Waco 85 69 87 64 / 0 0 40 80 Paris 83 64 78 60 / 10 10 80 60 Denton 85 68 82 58 / 0 10 80 60 McKinney 86 67 82 60 / 0 10 80 60 Dallas 87 69 85 62 / 0 0 80 70 Terrell 84 67 83 62 / 0 0 70 70 Corsicana 86 69 88 64 / 0 0 50 80 Temple 86 69 88 65 / 10 0 30 80 Mineral Wells 87 67 86 58 / 0 0 80 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez