173
FXUS64 KFWD 021131
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
531 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue into next week.

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
  night through next weekend. Some severe storms may be possible.
  The potential for flooding may increase this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A cold front moved into North Texas yesterday afternoon and
evening, however, it has now stalled prior to reaching the I-20
corridor in North Texas. As of 1 AM, this stalled frontal boundary
stretched near Bowie to Jacksboro to Graham with northerly winds
to the north of this boundary. Elsewhere, southerly winds will
persist as no additional southward movement of the front is
expected.

With the boundary providing some surface convergence, there will
continue to be a very low chance of a shower along the Red River
this early morning. By sunrise, cloudy skies will prevail
throughout the region, likely lingering through the early
afternoon. With the clouds in place, areas behind the front will
likely remain in the lower to middle 70s this afternoon. South of
the front, upper 70s to lower 80s will continue. Tonight`s
temperatures will stay in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A rather active weather period will commence by the middle of the
week as the weather pattern shifts from high pressure dominant to
slight troughing late Tuesday into Wednesday. Prior to the arrival
of the more active weather pattern, the stalled front mentioned in
the short-term discussion will shift north by Tuesday morning.
This will leave all of North and Central Texas in a warm and humid
airmass. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 80s across the region
with moisture levels expected to the be the highest across East
Texas. There should be enough warm air advection for a few showers
to develop in the afternoon in East Texas.

By Wednesday, a front is slated to once again move into the
region, stalling near the I-20 corridor by the afternoon. As the
front stalls, a pair of shortwaves will move across, enhancing
forcing for ascent throughout the region. Along the immediate
front, a few showers and storms will be possible, however, the
threat for strong to severe storms will increase by the afternoon.
The key element in determining the area of highest concern will be
the positioning of the front when it stalls. Ahead of the front,
instability will climb to around 1500 to 2000 J/kg with lapse
rates near 8 C/km. This should promote the development of hail,
some of which could be large. Strong to damaging winds cannot be
ruled out either given near 40 kt deep-layer shear.

By Thursday, a northward retreat of the front is expected, once
again returning all of North and Central Texas into a warm and
humid air mass. Highs in the 80s will be in place both Thursday
and Friday, however, rain chances do return to the forecast by
Friday afternoon as a dryline develops just west of our region.
With another potential front on Saturday, rain chances will
remain high through the weekend. With multiple rounds of rain
(some of it could be heavy), there will be a threat for flooding
through the weekend. We`ll continue to monitor the position of
the trough out west, along with any stalled boundaries that may be
the focus for precipitation over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Concerns: MVFR to IFR this morning, then again tonight.

A low deck of clouds has move in from the south, impacting much of
North and Central Texas. MVFR and IFR will dominate this morning
with improvement to VFR expected by early this afternoon.
Afternoon winds will remain out of the south, generally between
5-10 kts.

After the VFR skies this afternoon and evening, another round of
MVFR will arrive tonight into tomorrow morning. Similarly, the low
clouds will erode by late in the morning. Breezy south winds are
expected tomorrow with occasional gusts to around 20 mph.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  61  84  65 /  10   0  10  10
Waco                79  61  85  65 /   0   0  10   0
Paris               72  59  80  63 /  10  10  20  10
Denton              78  58  84  60 /  10   0  10  10
McKinney            76  60  83  63 /  10  10  10  10
Dallas              80  63  84  66 /  10   0  10  10
Terrell             78  60  84  64 /  10   0  20  10
Corsicana           80  63  86  66 /  10   0  20   0
Temple              81  61  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
Mineral Wells       81  57  87  60 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez