Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
285 FXUS64 KFWD 162348 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 648 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry weather will continue through tomorrow. - A cold front will bring a chance of storms (20-40%) on Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown on Sunday. A few strong storms are possible east of I-35. - Warm and dry weather returns early next week, followed by another cold front around the middle of the week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 114 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025/ /Through Friday night/ Our next weather-making upper-level low is currently situated over the Upper Colorado River Basin east of the Wasatch Range. A preceding shortwave trough is currently ejecting out of northern Mexico causing a surge of mid/high-level clouds to spread over our forecast area at this midday hour. This initial shortwave will not bring any notable weather change outside of slightly lower high temperatures this afternoon due to the high cloud cover. Expect afternoon highs in the 80s regionwide today. As the western CONUS upper low continues its trek toward the Great Plains, the local surface pressure gradient will tighten over North and Central Texas allowing for breezy south winds and a period of greater quality moisture return to occur Friday into Friday night. Increasing south flow and mostly sunny skies will nudge temperatures back into the upper 80s and low 90s Friday afternoon. Increasing humidity will help to limit the overall fire weather threat, but localized areas of elevated concern may arise Friday afternoon along and west of Highway 281 where afternoon RH is still expected to fall below 35% and south winds may gust upwards of 20-25 mph. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 114 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025/ /Saturday Morning and Beyond/ Enhanced moisture transport will draw upper 60s dewpoints and low stratus over much of North and Central Texas by early Saturday morning. A few isolated warm-advection showers cannot be ruled out during the morning hours beneath a stout capping inversion near 750mb. By Saturday morning, a cold front should also extend across northern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle with a Pacific front/dryline extending southward into the Big Country. There is still a bit of variance in the evolution of the overall synoptic pattern into Saturday being offered by the current suite of medium-range guidance. The deterministic GFS solution (less likely) is highlighting a quicker, deeper system shifting over the Southern Plains during the day Saturday and would bring shower and thunderstorm chances earlier in the day across much of North Texas. The more likely solution, supported by the NAM and RRFS is a slower, shallower system with a band of scattered showers and storms developing along the cold front later Saturday evening into Saturday night generally along and east of the I-35 corridor. The greatest potential for a couple of stronger storms capable of producing hail and gusty winds will reside northeast and east of the Metroplex late Saturday where the best moisture/lift/instability/shear are expected to overlap. We will be fine tuning these location and timing details as we get within 48 hours of this event and within range of more high-resolution convective-allowing model guidance. This system`s cold front will push through all of North and Central Texas by early Sunday morning ushering in a drier, cooler airmass. Sunday will feature breezy north-northeast winds and high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, a much-anticipated reprieve from the mid-October heat we have been experiencing. A quick warm-up back into the upper 80s and low 90s will occur Monday as upper ridging briefly builds in behind the departing trough. However, ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to highlight a more progressive pattern by midweek next week, bringing a series of upper-level disturbances across the Plains and potentially multiple frontal passages during the middle to latter portions of next week. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ A compact yet vigorous upper level disturbance over Central Texas is spreading a broad shield of middle and high level cloudiness across all of North Texas, including the relevant North Texas TAF sites. These broken to overcast high VFR ceilings will persist over D10 through 07-10z, before scattering out Friday morning as the disturbance moves north of our area. A moist southerly low level flow over the region will transport stratus cloudiness northward through Central Texas during the 08-12z time frame Friday morning. Sufficient confidence exists in this evolution to include a period of MVFR ceilings at Waco around 12-15z, with the expectation that these clouds will lift and scatter to VFR conditions by late morning. Some shreds of stratus may actually make a run at the southern portions of D10 after 12z. While some MVFR ceilings are not out of the question at some of the DFW-area TAF sites, am not confident at this point to include mention with this package. A persistent southeasterly surface wind regime will persist at all sites overnight, with a weak pressure gradient only supporting speeds on the order of 6 to 9 knots. The gradient will tighten a bit after 15z Friday as a trough deepens over West Texas. This will yield slightly stronger southerly winds averaging 8-13 knots during the afternoon. Bradshaw && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 88 71 91 60 / 5 0 5 30 20 Waco 64 87 70 91 63 / 5 5 0 20 20 Paris 64 87 68 88 56 / 5 5 5 40 30 Denton 62 87 68 90 54 / 5 0 10 30 20 McKinney 64 87 69 88 56 / 5 5 5 40 20 Dallas 67 89 71 92 61 / 5 5 5 30 20 Terrell 63 88 68 90 58 / 5 5 0 30 30 Corsicana 65 89 70 91 62 / 5 10 0 30 30 Temple 62 88 68 91 61 / 5 10 0 20 20 Mineral Wells 62 90 67 93 54 / 0 5 10 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$