Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
925 FXUS64 KFWD 101901 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 201 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through evening. Strong winds will be the main hazard. The severe threat is low, but isolated severe wind gusts can`t be ruled out. - There will be a low (20-30%) chance for showers or storms on Friday. - Above normal temperatures will continue into next week with most areas rain-free this weekend and beyond. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a stationary frontal boundary to our northwest. This activity will move southeast through portions of North Texas this afternoon through late this evening. Storm coverage will be highest across our northwestern zones, with a decrease in coverage expected late this afternoon and into the evening as storms move into the Metroplex. Strong outflow winds will be the main hazard with any of the activity through this evening. The severe threat will be very low given the lack of vertical shear, but an isolated severe wind gust can`t be completely ruled out. A second round of showers and storms may develop behind this first round late this evening into the overnight hours, but latest model guidance has slightly backed off on this potential. Given the uncertainty, we will carry low (20-30%) PoPs across North Texas overnight. On Friday, the ridge will remain displaced to our west, with another shortwave trough moving overhead throughout the day. Isolated showers or storms will likely develop across the region throughout the day. With no real surface forcing mechanism for convective development, PoPs have been broad-brushed across most of the forecast area on Friday, with the best coverage likely to be across our northeast. Severe weather is not expected, but gusty winds will be possible with any stronger storms. Aside from the rain chances, hot weather will continue to plague the region, though we should get a brief reprieve from widespread triple digit temperatures today and tomorrow. Unfortunately, given the increase in humidity, heat index values will likely still reach above 100 degrees areawide. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 The upper level ridge will build in once again this weekend. As a result, hot and rain-free weather is expected through the weekend and much of next week. Saturday is currently expected to be the hottest day, with widespread triple digit temperatures. While there is good consensus among ensemble guidance members that we`ll be hot and rain-free through most of next week, there is quite a bit of divergence from late in the week and beyond. Ensemble guidance is slightly favoring the return of a more active pattern (perhaps accompanied by some cooler air) late next week or next weekend. While there is little confidence at this timescale, there`s at least a little bit of hope that relief from the perpetual summer heat may be just on the horizon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Main concerns... Potential for showers and thunderstorms with strong, gusty outflow winds later this afternoon through late evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in D10 beginning mid to late afternoon and will move southeast through the evening. Strong, gusty outflow winds will be the main concern with any of this activity. There will be a chance for a second round of showers or storms between ~04-06Z. For KACT, have dropped prevailing VCTS to a PROB30 for -TSRA, as the probability of terminal impacts has decreased. It`s possible no convective activity occurs at or near the KACT terminal today/tonight, but we`ll have to see how things evolve over the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions and generally south to southeast winds will prevail through the period, with the exception of any outflow winds from thunderstorms. Additionally, it looks like we could briefly have E/ESE winds in D10 behind the rounds of storms late tonight into early Friday morning. This would likely only last a few hours, with south winds returning by 12Z or so Friday. There will be a low (20-25%) chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day Friday, but the potential is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 98 79 100 / 40 40 0 10 Waco 76 99 77 100 / 20 20 0 0 Paris 73 94 74 98 / 40 50 0 10 Denton 75 98 76 100 / 40 30 0 10 McKinney 75 95 75 98 / 40 40 0 10 Dallas 79 99 80 101 / 30 40 0 10 Terrell 75 97 75 99 / 20 40 0 10 Corsicana 75 97 76 99 / 20 30 0 0 Temple 74 99 75 100 / 10 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 72 99 74 101 / 40 30 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...Barnes