Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
371 FXUS64 KFWD 060045 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 745 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak cold front will enter North Texas on Tuesday, bringing some isolated showers. - Despite the front, highs will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the week. - Given the lack of rainfall, drought conditions will slowly increase across the region through the week and fire danger could gradually worsen. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 127 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025/ /This afternoon through Monday/ Virtually no changes to the sensible weather conditions are expected through Monday, as the region remains dominated by a broad southwesterly upper level flow regime. Low level moisture will remain adequate to produce some scattered cumulus cloudiness both days, with mostly clear skies returning each evening. A weak upper level trough located over the northwest Gulf, embedded in the southwesterly upper flow, will shift northward into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. This system`s movement off to the east of us should aid in backing our surface winds around to an east and northeast direction by Monday afternoon. The extremely slight cold air advection induced by this wind shift will be enough to trim high temperatures over our northeast counties by a few degrees on Monday. Otherwise, status quo for our area, with high temperatures remaining anywhere from 3 to 8 degrees above normal for early October. Bradshaw && .LONG TERM... /Issued 127 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025/ /Tuesday through Sunday/ The only exciting aspect of the long term forecast is the suspense involved with the arrival of a weak boundary advertised to drop into our northern counties on Tuesday. Some deterministic model solutions continue to suggest veritable rainbows and unicorns (in a relative sense), with temperatures holding in the 70s to lower 80s for most of the day Tuesday (and perhaps Wednesday too). Unfortunately, most of the key ensemble systems - particularly the NBM and ECMWF - discount the vigor of this upcoming boundary, the associated cloud cover and scattered showers, and most importantly, the cooler solutions offered by the deterministic output. Ensemble-based probabilities of temperatures exceeding 85 degrees remain quite high across North Texas Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with even lower 90s a good possibility south of I-20. This is the scenario offered by the NBM in our extended outlook, and one that we have the greatest confidence in occurring. Beyond Wednesday, we will see a significant mid-level ridge building episode evolve, with a stout high parked over the Southern Plains by the weekend. This will ensure a continuation of daytime highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s from Thursday right on through Sunday (and beyond, frankly). Rainfall will be non- existent, owing to an absence of deep layer moisture and forcing mechanisms. The persistence of daytime highs anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above normal, coupled with the lack of rainfall, will contribute to a steadily increasing wildfire risk as we move into the middle portion of October. This will represent an expansion of the small fires that are already occurring with some frequency across our area. As of now, there is no clear signal (at least through the first 2/3rds of October) for a major weather change which would swing our temperatures and rainfall chances back to those normally expected at this point in the fall. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will continue through tomorrow with just a few low level clouds around 7k ft and light east to southeast winds up to 10 knots. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 88 70 89 69 / 5 10 5 10 10 Waco 65 89 69 90 69 / 5 5 5 20 10 Paris 67 85 67 86 66 / 5 10 10 20 5 Denton 64 88 64 87 64 / 5 10 5 10 10 McKinney 66 87 66 87 66 / 5 10 5 10 5 Dallas 70 90 71 89 69 / 0 10 5 10 5 Terrell 65 87 66 88 67 / 5 5 5 20 10 Corsicana 68 89 69 90 69 / 0 5 5 20 10 Temple 65 90 67 89 67 / 0 5 5 20 10 Mineral Wells 63 91 64 89 64 / 0 5 0 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$