Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
074 FXUS64 KFWD 242341 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 641 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory will be in effect across much of North Texas from Noon through 8 PM Saturday. Heat index values up to 106 degrees are expected. - Additional Heat Advisories may be needed through next week, as temperatures and heat indices increase. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through tonight) Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Remnant tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Bertha continues to linger across North and Central Texas today, resulting in widespread cloud cover that has been slower to erode than previously anticipated. Morning observations, satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings all support a slower destabilization of the boundary layer, with temperatures warming more gradually across much of North Texas while portions of Central and Southeast Texas have seen more substantial clearing. As a result, afternoon highs have been trended a few degrees cooler than previous forecasts across the cloudier portions of the forecast area. Despite the lower temperatures, dewpoints have also been slower to mix out, allowing heat index values to still be on track to climb to near or locally just above Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon. While advisory-level conditions should be somewhat less widespread than in recent days, confidence remains high enough to maintain the current Heat Advisory through 8 PM with no configuration changes. Light drizzle remains possible through the afternoon, primarily across portions of Central Texas where deeper moisture lingers, but coverage should remain sparse with most locations staying dry. Any activity that develops will diminish this evening, leaving another warm and humid night with lows generally in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Little change is expected in the overall pattern through next week as an expansive mid-level ridge remains the dominant feature across the southern CONUS. Temperatures will gradually climb through the weekend and into early next week as cloud cover becomes less prevalent and the ridge strengthens overhead, with widespread highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s expected by Monday. While some afternoon boundary layer mixing should provide modest reductions in dewpoints, humidity will remain sufficient for heat index values to routinely reach Heat Advisory criteria, and additional daily heat headlines are anticipated. In fact, a Heat Advisory has already been issued for much of North Texas on Saturday, including the far northeastern counties that are expected to remain just below criteria today. Rain chances will remain minimal beneath the ridge, with little relief from the prolonged stretch of hot and humid conditions likely through much of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 The extensive VFR cloud shield over most of North Texas earlier today has fractured into small clusters as of 00z, and this trend will continue past 06z tonight. Most D10 TAF sites will experience scattered mid level cloudiness through the evening, with only a few instances of broken conditions prior to 02z. Later tonight, short-term model guidance suggests that the broad region of low level moisture lingering over North Texas will saturate sufficiently to produce another period of broken/overcast VFR cloudiness at the D10 terminals from around 08z to 16z. After that time, the extensive cloudiness should mix out to a high based field of scattered cumulus by afternoon. Farther south, Waco will avoid this renewed round of cloudcover, with only scattered conditions expected through 00z Sunday. Weak high pressure centered over Louisiana, coupled with troughing in the lee of the Rockies will facilitate a persistent southerly wind flow at all North Texas TAF sites through 00z Sunday. Wind speeds will average 09-13 knots throught the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 101 81 102 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 77 97 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 79 96 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 80 101 80 102 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 79 99 80 102 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 100 81 103 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 78 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 77 98 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 75 97 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 77 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091>095- 100>107-116>123-131>134. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...Bradshaw