521
FXUS64 KFWD 261855
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
155 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue mainly along
  and east of I-35 through early evening.

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue through the weekend.

- Low afternoon rain chances return early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1123 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/
/Today through Friday Night/

Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a fairly expansive
cumulus field throughout Central and North Texas with a few
scattered showers east of I-35. GOES-19 estimated precipitable
water shows a narrow swath of values between 1.9 and 2.1 inches
across the eastern half of the CWA. This is in line with the 1.77
inches sampled on the 12Z FWD sounding which was already in the
95th percentile for this time of year. Also noted on the morning
sounding was a notable lack of wind through the troposphere and
minimal capping. This all suggests that any areas of focused
differential heating or enhanced low level convergence will lead
to slow moving pop up showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
This is most likely to occur across the southeast quarter of the
CWA (along and east of I-35 and south of I-20), with coverage
tapering off farther north and west. We`ve nudged PoPs upward a
bit through the afternoon. The lack of wind aloft and tall skinny
CAPE will lead to a low threat for severe weather with only the
most robust updrafts posing a localized downburst wind threat due
to precipitation loading effects. Otherwise, outside of any
isolated convection, partly cloudy skies and warm and humid
conditions will prevail with highs in the lower 90s.

Mid level ridging from the east will become slightly more
pronounced on Friday with a notable drop in PW values expected.
This should limit coverage of any scattered showers to 10% or less
on Friday afternoon. We`ll also likely see some slightly better
coverage across our far north/northwest counties where more
pronounced troughing will persist, but most areas will remain dry.
Highs on Friday will tick upward a degree or two thanks to the
influence of the ridging spreading in from the east.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday through Wednesday/

Mid level ridging will continue to re-position itself westward
across parts of the Southern Plains this weekend resulting in
increasing subsidence and near zero rain chances. An associated
drop in total atmospheric moisture content will also allow
temperatures to climb over the weekend with Sunday likely being
the warmest day. Highs will top out in the upper 90s to near 100
degrees across the region. By early next week, this ridging will
be squashed a bit by a trough moving through the Central Plains. A
weak frontal boundary will sag south through Oklahoma and become a
focus for thunderstorm development each afternoon through the
middle of the week. While the best chances for storms will
generally remain to our north, outflow boundaries will likely be
numerous and should focus redevelopment farther south into North
Texas, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. In addition, the
weakness in the ridge should also allow for an uptick in sea
breeze convection across our southeast counties. We`ll keep PoPs
in the 20-30% range through this period with the highest coverage
north of I-20. Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees above
normal through the middle of next week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1123 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

Scattered cumulus has resulted in intermittent MVFR cigs primarily
along and east of I-35 this morning but cigs have gradually
climbed and are now around 2500 ft. They should continue to
scatter and become VFR by midday with south winds 10-15 kt. There
will be some scattered showers and perhaps a few storms again
through this afternoon with areas southeast of the D10 airspace
having the best chances to see convective activity. We`ll keep any
mention of SHRA/TS out of the current TAFs except for Waco and
continue to monitor through the early afternoon.

Outside of any isolated convection, VFR will prevail with south
winds around 10 kt through Friday.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  94  77  96  78 /   5   5   0   0   0
Waco                73  93  74  94  75 /   5   5   0   0   0
Paris               73  91  74  92  74 /   5  10   0   5   0
Denton              74  94  76  96  76 /   5  10   0   0   0
McKinney            74  93  76  95  76 /   5  10   0   0   0
Dallas              77  95  78  96  79 /   5   5   0   0   0
Terrell             73  93  74  94  75 /   5   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           74  93  75  94  76 /   5   5   0   0   0
Temple              72  93  73  94  73 /   5   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  95  74  97  76 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$