Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
385 FXUS64 KFWD 111027 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 527 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures are expected this week with highs in the 90s. - Low storm chances will exist for parts of North and Central Texas today through Thursday, then parts of eastern Central Texas over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 113 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ /Today through Thursday/ The weak upper level low that brought a few storms to parts of our East Texas counties yesterday will move overhead today. This should in turn bring a bit higher coverage of diurnal showers and storms across our eastern and southern counties this afternoon, although pops will remain just slight chance. Temperatures will also come down another degree from yesterday as heights fall aloft, with highs in the mid to upper 90s areawide. From Tuesday into Wednesday, the H5 low will become absorbed into the upper level westerlies nudging down into the southern Plains. As a result, pops will increase slightly throughout North and Central Texas both days, albeit still be on the low side. The westerlies will retreat back to the north on Thursday, with pops subsequently going back down to slight chance. Temperatures may lower another degree or so for Tuesday and Wednesday due to the increased precip coverage and cloud cover, but start going back up by Thursday. As mentioned in previous discussions, no widespread severe storms are anticipated this week. However, moderate MLCAPE/DCAPE and inverted-V profiles shown on forecast soundings will likely allow a couple storms each day to get strong with potential downbursts/microbursts. Shamburger && .LONG TERM... /Issued 113 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ /Friday through Sunday/ From Friday into the weekend, the upper pattern will begin shifting as a strong H5 ridge develops along the Gulf Coast and builds westward into Texas. Models have been inconsistent on how strong the ridge gets over us, which will determine how much temperatures rise as well as the extent of any precip chances. For now, guidance consensus is for just a slight increase in temps with highs remaining near or slightly above normal, and only low pops over our far southeast and east. Shamburger && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with scattered low and mid level clouds along with south to southeast winds up to 10 knots. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 77 95 78 95 / 5 5 20 10 20 Waco 95 75 93 76 95 / 5 5 20 10 20 Paris 95 74 94 74 93 / 5 5 20 10 30 Denton 97 74 96 74 96 / 0 5 30 10 20 McKinney 96 74 95 75 94 / 5 5 20 10 20 Dallas 97 77 96 78 96 / 5 5 20 10 20 Terrell 95 74 95 74 95 / 5 5 20 10 20 Corsicana 96 75 95 76 96 / 10 5 20 5 20 Temple 95 74 95 74 96 / 5 5 20 10 20 Mineral Wells 98 72 96 73 97 / 5 10 30 10 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$