598
FXUS64 KFWD 211941
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
141 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance (20 percent) for patchy light freezing
  rain and sleet pellets south of U.S. 84 between midnight and 7
  A.M. tonight into Saturday morning. Minimal travel impacts are
  expected.

- Scattered rain showers (30 to 50 percent chance) will develop
  east of Interstate 35 and south of Interstate 20 Saturday night
  into Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1205 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/
/Through Saturday/

The radarscope has completely cleared as of noon today with no
more reports of snow flurries in the last couple of hours. Moist,
south-southwesterly flow near 850mb will keep overcast skies over
North and Central Texas through the remainder of today and into
this evening. A push of dry air above the boundary layer will
attempt to clear out cloud cover across North Texas later tonight.
Expect temperatures to top out in the low to mid 30s across most
of the region today with several locations struggling to inch
above that 32F mark beneath dense cloud cover.

Surface high pressure will settle over North and Central Texas
late this evening causing winds to become near calm and variable
at times. Temperatures will drop back into the 20s tonight
generally along/north of the I-20 corridor where clouds are
expected to clear. Across Central Texas and the Brazos Valley
where dense cloud cover will remain in place through the night,
temperatures will hover right around freezing in the 30-33F range.
Increasing isentropic ascent within a ~4000 ft cloud layer ahead
of an approaching mid-level shortwave exiting the Southern Rockies
will increase the potential for very light precipitation over
Central Texas after midnight tonight. There will exist a several
hour period (generally 12AM-7AM) where freezing drizzle could lead
to a glaze of ice on elevated surfaces south of the Highway 84
corridor (~20% chance). Patchy sleet may mix in for a few hours
after midnight as well. High-resolution guidance favors Lampasas,
Coryell, McLennan, Bell, Falls, Milam, and Robertson counties for
a trace to a couple hundredths of an inch of ice through sunrise
Saturday morning. Minimal impacts to travel are expected with any
ice able to form quickly melting off after 9AM Saturday morning as
temperatures start their climb into the 40s for the first time in
several days. Southerly winds will re-establish across the region
by Saturday morning with temperatures warming into the upper 40s
to low 50s across North Texas and the low to mid 40s over Central
Texas where cloud cover will reside through Saturday afternoon.
More widespread shower coverage is expected along/east of I-35
Saturday evening into Saturday night.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Night Through Next Week/

No major changes have been made to the long term portion of our
forecast. An approaching shortwave will move overhead through
early Sunday morning, increasing the potential for showers across
portions of Central Texas. Guidance continues to come in with the
greatest lift associated with this shortwave remaining further
south. This will keep the best rain chances across Central Texas
and even further south toward the Texas coast. We did decide to
keep low PoPs (10% chance) for an isolated shower or perhaps some
drizzle across portions of North and East Texas. With surface
temperatures hovering just around freezing, there is a very low
chance (<10%) for freezing drizzle across our northeastern
counties. Given this brief window of potential and the continued
trend for rain chances moving further south, we decided to keep
any mention of freezing rain/drizzle out of the forecast. Even if
any freezing rain/drizzle occurs across this area, impacts will
remain few and far between. Absolute worst case scenario would
involve a slick spot or two on bridges and overpasses, but the
chance of this happening is quite low. Temperatures will also
climb well above freezing through Sunday morning, adding to our
confidence in little to no impacts should the worst case occur.

Conditions will rapidly improve through late Sunday morning and
into the afternoon hours, with temperatures warming into the 50s
and 60s for much of the area. Clearing skies will bring us into
Sunday night, setting the stage for pleasant weather conditions
that will bring us through the entirety of next week. Temperatures
will gradually warm into the 60s and 70s across all of North and
Central Texas, with a few locations potentially warming up into
the low 80s across our western counties on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another cold front will attempt to push through the region toward
the end of the week, with guidance keeping the passage of this
front dry. Enjoy the warmer weather!

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1205 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

OVC cigs at ~4-6kft will prevail through the remainder of the
afternoon. A surge of dry air above the boundary layer will
attempt to clear skies tonight along/north of I-20. This cloud
deck will remain over Central Texas and KACT through the TAF
period. East-northeasterly winds at 5-7 kts will become near calm
and variable later this evening before re-establishing out of the
south Saturday morning.

There is a low, less than 20% chance, that freezing drizzle or
even some ice pellets fall out of this cloud deck in Central TX,
including KACT, after midnight tonight. Do not currently have any
mention in the TAF due to the low potential. If ice does form,
only a trace to a couple hundredths of an inch of ice accumulation
is expected, and it will quickly melt off after ~8-9AM Saturday
morning.

Langfeld

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    25  50  36  62  43 /   0   0  20   0   0
Waco                31  47  39  60  41 /  10  10  30   5   0
Paris               24  47  32  58  39 /   0   0  10   5   0
Denton              20  49  33  62  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
McKinney            21  49  32  60  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dallas              26  50  36  62  43 /   0   0  20   0   0
Terrell             24  48  34  59  40 /   0   0  20   5   0
Corsicana           30  49  38  59  43 /   5  10  30  10   0
Temple              29  44  38  60  40 /  10  20  30   5   0
Mineral Wells       21  51  34  65  39 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$