Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
185 FXUS64 KFWD 132336 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 636 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms are expected again on Thursday, mainly over Central and East Texas. The severe threat is low, but gusty winds and pockets of heavy rain may occur. - Drier weather enters on Friday, followed by more rain and storm chances next week. - Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the end of this week with highs in the 90s. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1239 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025/ /Through Thursday/ Cloud tops have warmed significantly over the last couple hours as this morning`s thunderstorm complex continues to diminish in intensity. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue into this afternoon, primarily across parts of Central and East Texas, as our region remains under the influence of a slow-moving mid-/upper-level trough. Brief heavy downpours and isolated 40+ mph wind gusts will be the primary hazards with the afternoon activity. Most locations north of I-20 will remain dry through this evening, although a cumulus field is starting to re-develop across North Texas highlighting the potential for some isolated activity later this afternoon. Convection will largely wane in coverage after sunset tonight with potentially another round of early morning scattered thunderstorms across parts of East Texas on the nose of a low-/mid-level moisture surge and in the vicinity of a remnant MCV. Upper troughing will continue to extend over the eastern half of our forecast area through at least Thursday afternoon allowing for isolated to scattered diurnally-driven convection during the latter half of tomorrow, primarily along/south of the I-20 corridor and along/east of I-35. Cloud cover and a prevailing weakness in the upper ridge will keep below- to near-average temperatures through tomorrow as well with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s continuing into Thursday. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1239 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025/ /Friday and Beyond/ High pressure aloft will strengthen as the weekend approaches allowing for mostly dry conditions and seasonably hot temperatures to return Friday and Saturday, minus some low afternoon rain chances across our far eastern and southeastern counties. The upper ridge will shift toward the Midwest Sunday into early next week opening the door for afternoon/evening seabreeze activity generally south of I-20. The center of the upper ridge will gradually shift back toward the Desert Southwest by midweek next week potentially placing us back under more active, northerly flow aloft and daily, area-wide rain chances by Tuesday-Wednesday. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z/ Isolated afternoon convection has dissipated across North Central Texas as of early this evening, leaving remnant cirriform anvil debris and VFR conditions at the TAF sites. Much of this high cloud cover should thin/dissipate overnight. A weakening mid level trough will remain over portions of North and Central Texas again on Thursday, though the axis of this feature should be displaced a bit farther east compared with its current location. Slightly cooler temps aloft and weak lift along/east of this axis should once again promote isolated afternoon convection Thursday, mainly east of I-35. An isolated cell or two may develop within D10 after 18z, but the chances are low and certainly below the threshold for including VCTS in the DFW-area TAFs in this extended portion of the forecast. With a relatively non-descript surface pattern continuing across the region, winds will remain light and generally out of a southeast through southwest direction tonight through Thursday. Wind speeds for the most part should remain less than 6 knots, but may see a slight bump upward in the D10 area after 16z tomorrow. Bradshaw && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 96 79 97 79 / 5 10 5 5 5 Waco 75 94 77 95 76 / 10 10 5 5 5 Paris 74 94 74 95 75 / 10 10 5 20 5 Denton 74 97 77 98 76 / 5 10 0 5 0 McKinney 74 96 76 97 76 / 10 10 5 10 0 Dallas 77 96 79 97 79 / 5 10 5 5 5 Terrell 74 95 76 96 76 / 10 20 5 10 5 Corsicana 75 96 77 97 77 / 10 20 5 10 0 Temple 74 96 75 97 75 / 10 20 5 5 5 Mineral Wells 73 98 75 98 74 / 5 10 0 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$