999
FXUS64 KFWD 062313
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
613 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions are expected this weekend with heat
  index values up to 105.

- An unsettled pattern will continue this weekend with storm
  chances both Saturday night and Sunday night. Some severe
  weather is possible including the threat for damaging winds.

- Periodic storm chances will continue through the upcoming week
  with near or below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Afternoon short term guidance continues to suggest that overnight
convection will mostly remain confined to Oklahoma, with perhaps
an attendant southward-moving outflow boundary moving into North
Texas around or after sunrise tomorrow morning. Low convective
chances would accompany this feature, primarily in the form of
light/moderate showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, and
this feature could reach as far south as the I-20 corridor by
midday. Should this boundary still exist in North Texas during
the afternoon, it could serve as a focus for isolated convective
development, but these cells would likely remain isolated due to a
lack of any additional large scale ascent and the presence of
weak capping. Greater convective chances will exist later tomorrow
night into Sunday morning which is addressed in the previous
forecast discussions below.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/This Afternoon through Saturday Night/

A thunderstorm complex that moved across Oklahoma last night and
this morning continues to push eastward with only a few isolated
showers/storms clipping our far northeast counties. These should
persist for another hour or so before dissipating leaving a hot
and humid afternoon in its wake. Highs this afternoon will
generally top out in the lower 90s with heat indices near 100
degrees.

Mid level ridging will remain in place to our south this
afternoon, but a weak disturbance spreading through the westerly
flow aloft combined with strong heating ahead of a dryline/outflow
intersection should result in the development of additional deep
convection off to our northwest late this afternoon. The wind
fields associated with the periphery of the mid level ridge should
keep most of this evening activity to our northwest and
eventually across parts of Oklahoma again tonight. We`ll maintain
some low PoPs across our far northwest counties through tonight.
Similar to this morning, most of the overnight activity should
remain across Oklahoma into early Saturday morning where we`ll
have some low PoPs.

Saturday will be hot and humid again with highs in the mid 90s and
dewpoints in the lower 70s. This will result in heat indices
between 100-105 degrees areawide although south winds 10-15 mph
will provide a touch of relief. We`ll hold off on any heat
advisories at this time but continue to monitor this potential.

Upper flow becomes a little more northwesterly during the day
Saturday and another shortwave will spread through the Plains
and send a weak front southward Saturday night. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop initially off to our north, but should expand
in coverage through the overnight hours as stronger forcing for
ascent arrives after midnight. The best chances for thunderstorms
will be along and north of I-20 toward the Red River late
Saturday night where we`ll have 20-40% PoPs. A few of these storms
could be severe with a damaging wind threat. The unsettled pattern
will continue into Sunday and early next week.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 103 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025/
/Sunday through Friday/

Hot and humid weather will continue on Sunday behind any remnant
morning convection sending heat index values back up around 105
degrees during the afternoon. It should be quiet for most of the
day but as temperatures climb into the mid 90s, we`ll become
strongly unstable beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. The
pattern will be more favorable for developing thunderstorms across
the Panhandle to surge southeast into this axis of strong
instability Sunday night. Latest model guidance continues to
advertise this potential and we should see our best storm chances
over the next several days during this time. Given the degree of
instability into the late night hours, there will be a threat for
severe weather as an organized complex of storms spreads southeast
across the region. Damaging winds will be the main threat,
although some instances of severe hail will also be possible.

Remnant outflow will likely set up across Central Texas during the
day Monday in the wake of the earlier complex of storms. This
boundary will serve as a focus for additional convective
development by late Monday afternoon and evening across Central TX
and in our west/southwest counties. Strong afternoon heating
should contribute to a quick recovery of instability and will
support a continued threat for severe weather into the late
evening hours.

Beyond Monday night, the pattern looks like it will remain active
through the middle and latter part of the week, although timing of
individual clusters of thunderstorms will be difficult to pin down
more than about a day in advance. We`ll maintain relative high
PoPs

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

VFR skies with south winds will prevail the rest of this evening
and tonight. MVFR stratus may affect Waco for a few hours tomorrow
morning around and after 12z, but the potential for cigs to reach
the Metroplex is too low to include at the D10 TAF sites. A
convective complex will move across Oklahoma overnight and could
send an outflow boundary southward into North Texas tomorrow
morning. There is a small chance this feature could reach the DFW
area airports later in the day which would result in a very brief
N/NW wind shift and/or cause redevelopment of scattered
thunderstorms in closer proximity to the TAF sites tomorrow
afternoon. Since this is a low probability scenario of less than
20%, neither a wind shift nor convective chances will be included
in the TAFs at this time. A greater potential for thunderstorms
exists just beyond the current valid TAF period Saturday night
into Sunday morning as an additional thunderstorm complex arrives
from the northwest.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  94  75  95  71 /   5   5  20  10  70
Waco                75  94  74  95  73 /   0   0   5   0  30
Paris               75  90  71  90  68 /   5  20  40  10  60
Denton              74  94  72  94  68 /   5  10  20  10  70
McKinney            75  93  73  93  70 /   5  10  30  10  70
Dallas              77  95  75  96  71 /   5   5  20  10  70
Terrell             75  92  73  93  71 /   5   0  20  10  60
Corsicana           76  94  77  94  74 /   0   0  10   5  40
Temple              75  95  74  96  74 /   0   0   5   0  20
Mineral Wells       73  96  72  96  68 /   5   0  10  10  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$