390
FXUS64 KFWD 201101
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
601 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A broken line of showers and storms will continue to move across
  the region this morning. No severe weather is expected with this
  activity.

- Rain chances will end from west to east during the day.

- The active weather pattern will persist through next week with
  additional storm chances Tuesday night through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 240 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/
/Today and Tonight/

Convection continues along and behind the surface cold front
draped across western North and Central Texas this morning with a
generally north-to-south oriented line segment beginning to push
across our western zones. The prefrontal environment remains
modestly unstable with a strengthening low-level jet maintaining
the deeply sheared environment sufficient for a continued (though
waning) threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. Additionally,
there continues to be a flood threat, particularly across our
northwestern zones where locally heavy rainfall and training
storms have already led to considerable flash flood issues during
earlier convection.

In the next couple of hours, the surface boundary and line of
thunderstorms should finally begin to approach the I-35 corridor
though likely undergoing considerable weakening the further east
it gets. The steady forward progress of this activity should
mitigate additional flood concerns with rain totals generally
remaining below 0.50 inch near and east of the I-35 corridor.
After a damp start, conditions should improve quickly today with
clearing skies and drier air spreading across the region through
the afternoon. Highs will peak in the 70s and low 80s. Showers
may linger through the afternoon in our far southeastern counties
but rain amounts will be light and shouldn`t be enough to disrupt
holiday plans. Lows will dip into the upper 40s and 50s Sunday
night amid clearing skies and light winds.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 240 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/
/Monday through Next Sunday/

An active weather pattern will remain in place across the region
with daily rain and storm chances beginning late Tuesday through
the weekend.

A brief lull in the rain is still in the forecast for Monday with
clear skies and light easterly winds. A nearly stationary front
will settle just south of the area, keeping us precipitation-free
at least through Tuesday morning. Rain and storm chances will
begin to ramp up Tuesday afternoon and evening as the first of a
series of upper level disturbances approaches from the west. The
surface front will also begin to retract northward as a warm
front, providing additional focus for scattered showers and
storms. At this time, it appears the developing dryline will
remain to our west and with that the best chances for any
strong/severe storms. If the dryline moves closer to our area, the
severe weather risk may increase across our region.

Coverage of precipitation is expected to increase during the day
on Wednesday as the upper wave moves across the southern Plains.
Given the abundant moisture in place, we could see pockets of
moderate to heavy rain. This will increase the flooding concerns
over those locations that received the highest QPF over the
weekend (northwest counties and along the Red River). Additional
rounds of showers and storms are expected Thursday and Friday as
the following shortwaves move overhead. Again, we will have to
watch the potential for flash flooding if the same areas receive
multiple rounds of heavy rain over the week. At this time, we`re
looking at widespread rainfall totals from 1-3 inches from
Tuesday through Saturday. Isolated higher amounts near 4" are
possible. While rain chances decrease some towards the weekend,
there will be at least some scattered activity through Sunday.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Aviation conditions will improve this morning as the line of
storms and cold front continues to move east. While there could
be some isolated lightning threat, the highest coverage of storms
will be east of the sites the rest of the morning. Behind the
front, winds will shift to the west and ceilings will gradually
become VFR. At this time, it looks like the MVFR ceilings will
begin to clear between 16-17Z for most of the sites. Otherwise,
winds will shift to the north this evening, then light and
variable overnight, and eventually easterly by Monday morning.

Sanchez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  55  80  60  84 /  60   0   0   0  20
Waco                80  52  83  61  86 /  70   0   0   0  40
Paris               74  50  78  54  82 /  80   0   0   0  10
Denton              73  48  79  54  84 /  60   0   0   0  20
McKinney            74  51  78  57  82 /  70   0   0   0  20
Dallas              78  55  82  59  86 /  70   0   0   0  20
Terrell             76  51  79  58  84 /  70   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           79  54  82  63  86 /  70   0   0   0  40
Temple              80  52  85  62  86 /  70   0   0   0  50
Mineral Wells       74  49  81  56  86 /  20   0   0   0  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ091>093-100>102.

&&

$$