Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
878 FXUS64 KFWD 141813 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 113 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, Update LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for isolated instances of flash flooding Tuesday and Wednesday. - Temperatures will likely remain slightly below average the rest of the week. - More typical summer weather returns this weekend with highs well in the 90s and much drier conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 A somewhat stagnant and unsettled weather pattern will remain over Texas for the next several days. As a result, multiple days of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast but specifics regarding spatial coverage and the location of heaviest rain will be highly dependent on smaller-scale features that are difficult to forecast with any reliable accuracy. Starting with today...An MCV is starting to develop over the Brazos Valley. Mean flow in the 500-700 mb level should draw this feature west/northwest into western Central Texas this afternoon and evening. We expect a rather expansive blanket of light to moderate rainfall to persist near this MCV with pockets of heavy rainfall and flash flooding where smaller-scale boundaries interact with the MCV. At the same time, a broken line of showers and storms will advance out of Central Texas and into North Texas. Ahead of this line, forecast and aircraft soundings indicate there is enough moisture and instability to support a few showers and thunderstorms, particularly if any remnant boundaries help nudge parcels upward. Notably, we are starting to see an increase of convective attempts just south of the Metroplex that, outside of some modest dry-air entrainment, should have no problem developing into isolated to widely scattered showers and storms through the afternoon. We expect these storms to be more hit or miss, with colliding outflow boundaries developing new storms across the region. The main threat today across Central Texas is flash flooding since a very tropical-like (warm and moisture-rich) environment is supporting very efficient rainfall rates and heavy rain. Further north, the hit or miss nature of the precip will lower the flooding threat, but increase the lightning and gusty wind (gusts to 35-40 mph) threats. Precipitation overnight will contract toward the MCV over western Central Texas and the synoptic mid-level low over the Hill Country with the loss of heating. Precipitation is expected to continue through the night for parts of western Central Texas, but a lower threat of lightning will subsequently lower the flood threat in our forecast area. The MCV may wash out and get absorbed into the mean flow late tonight and tomorrow morning, but the synoptic low will continue to meander over Texas. This will result in another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms across all of North Texas, likely advancing north along some kind of cold pool or boundary. It is too soon to know if there will be another MCV will develop in our area, but if one does develop, it will locally increase the PoPs and flood risk. Outside of showers and storms...it will be warm and humid with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values a few degrees higher than that. && .UPDATE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The mid- and upper-level low is forecast to slowly move west through the rest of the week, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances locally. The general trend will be scattered showers and storms each afternoon that contract toward the low pressure area overnight. The previous discussion issued last night still captures the overall trends. Bonnette .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 ...Thursday and Friday... The upper-level disturbance situation over Central Texas currently will begin to move westward towards the southern High Plains. This will allow stronger synoptic scale subsidence to work into the region and begin to inhibit storm development. While isolated diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will remain possible during this time period (especially Thursday afternoon and evening), these probabilities (30-40% chance) will largely remain along and west of U.S. Highway 281 and decrease with eastward extent. Nonetheless, a stray shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out along and east of the I-35 corridor (10-20% chance) both Thursday and Friday afternoon/evening. As cloud and storm coverage decrease, temperatures will again be on the rise. Highs will still likely be slightly below normal in the upper-80s and lower-90s (colder with westward extent in tandem with the increase in rain/cloud cover). ...This Weekend... By the upcoming weekend, height rises and high pressure return to the region bringing more typical summer weather for the area. Plentiful sunshine will allow temperatures to rise into the 90s during the day. Nights will again be warm and humid with temperatures only dropping into the mid and upper-70s. Darrah && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 We`re watching a band of towering cumulus over southern D10 that will produce at least a few showers early this afternoon. So far, we`ve seen a couple failed convective attempts but we expect at least isolated storms to develop over D10 between ~19-21Z. The timing for on-station storms in D10 (21-23Z) may have to be adjusted up an hour or two if the current trends south of our TAF sites continue. However, if the towering cumulus weakens without producing robust thunderstorms (~40% chance), then our attention will shift to the northward advancing line of showers and storms that will arrive to the D10 terminals around 22Z. Either way, storm coverage within D10 should be scattered with rapid visibility reductions due to heavy rain, and gusty and erratic winds. The storms should weaken with the loss of heating this evening, giving way to VFR and south flow tonight. At ACT...Widespread rain with a few embedded storms are expected to continue at ACT for the next several hours. Precip should eventually come to an end between 22-00Z with VFR and south flow prevailing tonight. We`ll have to monitor for MVFR and IFR stratus returning tomorrow morning, but we don`t have enough confidence to include anything worse than BKN025 at this time. Another round of showers and storms is forecast to move north into the area tomorrow afternoon, but our confidence of timing and lightning potential is too low to include anything other than VCSH in the extended hours of DFW`s TAF. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 73 90 74 / 40 30 50 30 Waco 83 71 87 72 / 90 30 50 30 Paris 87 71 87 71 / 20 20 50 20 Denton 88 71 90 72 / 30 20 40 20 McKinney 86 72 89 73 / 30 20 50 20 Dallas 87 74 90 75 / 40 30 50 30 Terrell 86 71 89 72 / 40 20 50 20 Corsicana 85 72 88 73 / 70 20 50 20 Temple 82 71 86 71 / 90 40 60 40 Mineral Wells 85 69 88 70 / 50 30 40 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ142-143-156>160- 174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonnette LONG TERM....Bonnette AVIATION...Bonnette