002
FXUS64 KFWD 240003
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
603 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread travel impacts due to wintry precipitation are
  expected to begin this evening across North Texas and Saturday
  across Central Texas. Precipitation will end Sunday, but travel
  impacts will linger into Monday and Tuesday.

- Strong winds along with ice on tree limbs and power lines could
  cause sporadic power outages Saturday and Sunday.

- Life-threatening cold wind chills as low as 5 to 10 below zero
  Saturday, Sunday and Monday nights will result in hypothermia
  and frostbite if precautions are not taken.

- A long duration of below-freezing temperatures from tonight
  through Tuesday will increase the risk of broken pipes and
  water damage.

- Final preparations for the impending winter weather need to be
  completed now!

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 602 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Recent surface observations have come in a bit warmer than the
inherited forecast, especially north of I-20 and east of I-35 into
southeastern Oklahoma where temperatures have held in the mid 30s
to lower 40s through the late afternoon. This will delay the
onset of sub-freezing temperatures and subsequently slow the
north to south transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet in
these areas through this evening. The expected arrival time of
freezing temperatures in the Metroplex remains largely on track,
with temperatures reaching 32 degrees between 11 PM and 1 AM along
and near the I-20 corridor, though several more rural areas in
western North Texas are already seeing surface temperatures
nearing 30 degrees with a few reports of freezing rain and sleet
already mixing in to the ongoing showers.

The 00Z KFWD sounding sampled a substantial warm nose aloft which
supports a slightly longer duration of freezing rain across parts
of North and Central Texas late tonight and early Saturday before
low-level cold air deepens and a more definitive transition to
sleet occurs. Additionally, while guidance continues to depict a
relative lull in precipitation coverage Saturday afternoon as the
initial wave exits, modeled soundings suggest a low potential for
freezing drizzle will exist as large scale ascent wanes but
remains sufficient for light precipitation ahead of the ejecting
upper low. Despite these timing and precipitation-type nuances,
storm total ice, sleet, and snow accumulations are not expected to
change appreciably at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

A major winter storm remains on track to impact North and Central
Texas beginning this evening and continuing through the weekend,
with impacts from the winter storm lingering into Monday and
Tuesday.

Latest surface observations show the Arctic cold front has pushed
southward into North Texas and is currently near a Bowie to
Sherman line. Temperatures have already fallen into the upper 30s
immediately behind the front, with the freezing line further north
from just north of Wichita Falls to north of Ardmore. The front
is anticipated to continue southward through North Texas this
afternoon/evening and into Central Texas tonight, with the
freezing line reaching DFW around 04-06Z and Temple/Killeen around
12Z tomorrow morning. Strong WAA aloft is underway across our
region ahead of a large upper low off the west coast of Baja
California, with radar showing widespread light to moderate rain
now across much of North and Central Texas.

As the Arctic front undercuts the ongoing rain this evening into
tomorrow, rain will change to freezing rain from north to south
with ice accumulations beginning fairly quickly on elevated
surfaces as temperatures continue to fall into the 20s tonight
into tomorrow. As the shallow cold air near the surface deepens
with time overnight into Saturday, freezing rain will transition
to sleet as the predominate precipitation type across North Texas.
For Central Texas, the cold air will remain more shallow with a
stronger warm nose aloft, so freezing rain is anticipated to be
the main precip type with sleet mixing in occasionally. CAMs such
as the HRRR also indicate a few thunderstorms could develop at
times within the broad precipitation shield, especially tonight
into Saturday morning, which could lead to thundersleet (TSIP) or
thunder-freezing rain (TSFZRA) and enhance precipitation rates.

Models indicate there will be somewhat of a lull in precipitation
on Saturday afternoon as the first upper wave exits the region,
but the main upper low will eject eastward quickly on its heels
and bring more widespread, heavy precipitation Saturday evening
through Saturday night. Despite temperatures falling into the
10s, sleet looks to be the main precip type across North Texas
during this timeframe with freezing rain across Central Texas due
to a strong warm nose aloft. A few thunderstorms also appear
likely which would lead to periods of heavy sleet/freezing rain.
As the main upper wave shifts over and east of us Sunday morning,
this should finally cool the warm nose aloft for a transition to
snow across North Texas before precipitation quickly ends across
the entire area from west to east Sunday afternoon.

Latest storm total ice, sleet and snow accumulations remain
similar to previous forecasts. Combined sleet/snow totals around
1 inch are expected in Central Texas, with 1 to 5 inch amounts in
North Texas. Ice amounts around 1/4 to 1/2 inch are expected for
most of our area, although isolated 3/4 inch ice amounts are
possible in our East Texas counties. Given these higher ice
amounts in East Texas, along with the gusty north winds
anticipated Saturday/Sunday, and our neighbors changing hazards
to an Ice Storm Warning, have issued a small Ice Storm Warning for
our southeast counties to match with SHV/HGX. Despite the hazard
name change, our messaging and impacts remain the same for these
counties with hazardous travel and scattered power outages
anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Although all precipitation will end on Sunday, impacts from the
ice/sleet/snow will continue Monday into Tuesday as temperatures
remain well below freezing. Guidance continues to appear too warm
for lows both Monday and Tuesday mornings given the expected icy
ground, and have gone closer to the NBM 25th percentile numbers
with lows mainly in the single digits to near zero. Wind chills
will make it feel even colder with -5 to -15 wind chills expected
Monday morning and -5 to 5 Tuesday morning. Will likely have to
extend the Extreme Cold Warning through Monday night/Tuesday
morning in future updates. Temps look to finally warm above
freezing by Tuesday afternoon with highs in the mid 30s to mid
40s. This will end a roughly 80-90 hour period of below freezing
temperatures across North and Central Texas. However, no big
warmup is anticipated with cold dry weather continuing Wednesday
and Thursday with highs only in the 40s and lows in the 20s. 12Z
models indicate another potential winter weather maker next
weekend, but we`ll look more into that once we get through this
first one.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Isolated moderate precipitation in a shield of light rain across
the region may bring brief IFR vis restrictions to TAF sites.
However, uncertainty in timing and low coverage precludes IFR
TEMPO before IFR is prevailed later tonight at Metroplex TAF
sites. Expect a north to south transition from RA, to FZRA, to a
mix of FZRA and PL between 05Z and 08Z for the Metroplex TAF
sites, and between 11Z and 13Z for KACT. Ceilings will hover near
IFR/LIFR (~500ft) tonight and tomorrow. Have included FEW/SCT
LIFR decks to show potential for brief LIFR cigs, but uncertainty
precludes inclusion of TEMPO in TAFs. Winds will remain gusty and
out of the north(360-030), 10-15 kts, gusting 25-30 kts at times
(particularly before 02Z and after 15Z).

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1241 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    25  28  14  22 / 100 100 100  30
Waco                29  31  17  23 / 100 100 100  20
Paris               22  23  14  20 / 100 100 100  40
Denton              22  24   9  22 / 100 100 100  30
McKinney            25  26  13  21 / 100 100 100  30
Dallas              27  29  15  22 / 100 100 100  30
Terrell             26  28  15  22 / 100 100 100  30
Corsicana           29  31  20  25 / 100 100 100  30
Temple              31  32  17  27 / 100  90 100  20
Mineral Wells       20  23  10  22 / 100 100 100  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>121-123-129>134-141.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Monday for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

Ice Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for
TXZ122-135-147-148-162.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
TXZ142>146-156>161-174-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Darrah