248
FXUS64 KFWD 121137
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will impact locations generally east of the I-35
  corridor early this morning. The stronger storms will be capable
  of producing small hail and gusty winds. Heavy rain may cause
  localized flooding.

- Much colder weather is expected tonight and Thursday behind a
  strong cold front.

- A warm-up into the weekend will be halted by another strong
  front on Saturday. A third arctic front will arrive on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Numerous thunderstorms moving rapidly east across the CWA early
this morning will exit to the east a couple of hours after
sunrise. All storms will remain below severe limits, but the
stronger ones will continue to produce heavy rainfall, small hail
and wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Patchy drizzle and fog will
be possible behind the main line of storms for a few hours. Low
clouds will gradually lift, and visibilities will improve by
midday as drier air moves in ahead of a strong cold front that
will surge though the entire region this afternoon and evening.

The only changes needed to the previous forecast are to adjust
PoP timing based on current radar trends and adjust hourly temp/
dew point grids. (See discussion below.)

79

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Wednesday night/

Showers and storms associated with an approaching shortwave are
blossoming across the Concho Valley late this evening. This
activity will lift northeast through the night while growing in
coverage with the help of increasing isentropic lift. Severe
storms are not expected but a few may contain small hail and brief
heavy rainfall. Storms will move northeast through early
Wednesday morning, exiting to the east a few hours after sunrise.

Overnight temperatures will not change much from their current
readings due to little temperature advection and thick cloud
cover. Clouds will partially scatter in the afternoon behind the
departing shortwave, allowing temperatures to warm into the 50s
and 60s for most. The only exceptions will be across the Red River
counties where cold air advection behind a strong cold front will
keep temperatures in the 40s. The far southern zones will also
deviate from the rest of the CWA with highs reaching the lower
70s.

The cold front will surge southward Wednesday night, sending
temperatures below freezing. Overnight lows will range from the
upper teens in the northwest to the lower 30s across the
southeast. A breezy north wind will make it feel downright frigid
with wind chills mainly in the single digits and teens by sunrise
Thursday. These values are just above our Cold Weather Advisory
criteria.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 402 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/
/Thursday Through the Middle of Next Week/

A progressive pattern will maintain a 3-day frequency of frontal
passages, and the amplified flow across the CONUS will allow
arctic air to invade the Lone Star State.

The first of three fronts in the 7-day forecast arrives today, and
Thursday will begin with sub-freezing weather. Locations in the
northwest will begin the day in the teens, and morning wind chill
values will be in the single digits and teens across much of the
region. Despite today`s heavy rainfall, brisk north winds and very
low humidity will generally whisk the roadways dry, but some
lingering puddles could freeze. Increasing cloud cover and
persistent cold advection will keep Thursday afternoon`s
temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

South winds will return on Friday, and the ensuing warming trend
will allow many locations to reach the 70s on Saturday afternoon
before the next arctic front arrives. Prefrontal showers and
storms may begin as early as Friday afternoon, but these will lack
the vigor of today`s activity. Sunday and Monday will mirror the
temperature trends of Thursday and Friday, but the culmination of
the subsequent warming trend on Tuesday will be dampened by clouds
and rain chances. Wednesday next week will match the chill of the
previous arctic intrusions, but unlike its predecessors, a
trailing shortwave may yield wintry precipitation.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Poor flying weather this morning will give way to improving
conditions this afternoon. The good news is that for all practical
purposes the thunderstorms should be east of the Metroplex TAF
sites by 12Z, but a few storms may linger around Waco through
about 14Z. Ceilings and visibility will be very challenging to
forecast with pockets of VFR in the vicinity of lingering showers,
but overall we anticipate IFR ceiling/visibility to return to all
TAF sites after the measurable precipitation moves well to the
east. A gradual improvement to MVFR is likely by mid afternoon,
but most sites will not return to VFR until this evening.

Thunderstorm-influenced winds currently will become north/
northwest shortly after sunrise with speeds increasing this
afternoon due to the passage of a strong cold front. Breezy north
winds will prevail this evening and overnight at sustained speeds
between 12 and 16 knots with frequent gusts around 25 knots.

79

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    52  26  43  34  55 /  20   0   0   0  10
Waco                65  30  45  36  54 /  10   0   0   0  10
Paris               49  24  44  31  52 /  60   0   0   0  10
Denton              49  22  41  29  53 /  20   0   0   0  10
McKinney            50  24  42  31  54 /  20   0   0   0  10
Dallas              54  26  45  34  55 /  20   0   0   0  10
Terrell             54  27  43  33  56 /  30   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           61  30  45  37  57 /  30   0   0   0  10
Temple              70  30  45  34  56 /   0   0   5   0  10
Mineral Wells       54  23  43  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$