047
FXUS64 KFWD 192349
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
649 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Night/

Above-normal temperatures will remain the primary weather story
through tomorrow as a mid level ridge continues to strengthen
overhead. 5900+ meter 500mb heights will encompass all of the
forecast area through the start of the weekend. Temperatures will
be generally 10 to 15 degrees above normal as a result, with lows
in the 70s tonight and highs in the mid and upper 90s (a few spots
likely hitting 100) on Friday. Dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s
will yield widespread heat indices of 100 to 105 Friday afternoon.
Those who have outdoor events planned are urged to stay hydrated
and take frequent breaks in the shade. For Friday night football,
temperatures will start out in the lower 90s and gradually fall
into the lower to mid 80s through the evening. Otherwise, North
and Central Texas will remain wedged between a stationary front in
the Panhandle and a surface ridge off to our east, keeping winds
generally out of the south at 5 to 15 MPH.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 349 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/
/Saturday Onward/

Unseasonably hot weather will continue over the weekend in the
presence of anomalous mid-level heights. A few locations will
reach or exceed 100 degrees on Saturday afternoon while heat
index values climb to 100-105. A shortwave trough traversing the
Central Plains will aid in eroding the ridge axis from the north
by Sunday, helping to drop temperatures a couple of degrees while
also increasing mid/high cloud cover during peak heating. A front
associated with this trough will encroach on the CWA late in the
day and slowly proceed into North Texas heading into Monday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should accompany this feature,
and PoPs have been increased from previous forecasts for the
Sunday night into Monday period.

As the front stalls through the area during the first half of the
week, it will support a couple of additional opportunities for
rainfall through at least Wednesday. A vague overrunning regime
could materialize as the front progressively loses its identity,
while northwest flow prevails aloft. Despite the lack of any
noteworthy cool post-frontal air, the increased cloud cover
should be sufficient to hold highs in the 80s for many areas
during the first half of the workweek. Signs point toward a return
to stronger upper ridging by the end of the week, although this
will depend largely on the eventual evolution of any possible
tropical system in the Gulf. For this reason, the forecast beyond
day 6 contains abnormally high uncertainty.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Surface winds will remain generally out of the south at 5-10kt
with occasional gusts of 15kt. VFR can otherwise be expected as
high pressure aloft continues to dominate the region.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  99  77  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                77  97  73  96  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               74  97  73  95  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              75  99  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            74  99  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              79  99  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             73  99  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           76  98  74  97  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              75  97  72  96  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       72  97  72  96  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$