Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
306 FXUS64 KFWD 042241 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 541 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler weather and rain chances arrive late Friday and continue through Monday with the arrival of a cold front. Total rainfall amounts over the four day period are expected to be around 1 inch or less. - Hotter and drier weather will return mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: West winds, compressional warming, and drier air boosted temperatures into triple digits this afternoon as a weak front sagged south to near the I-20 corridor. West to northwest winds near and north of the front will return to the south this evening as the boundary retreats north. A stronger southward push will bring the front through the area tomorrow evening, along with rain chances and cooler weather this weekend. Temperatures were adjusted upward across all but the Red River counties where slightly cooler air exists, otherwise the forecast remains on track. 30 Previous Discussion: /Today through Friday/ Visible satellite imagery early this afternoon shows almost completely clear skies across North and Central Texas, with surface observations indicating current temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Given the very dry airmass in place today as shown by current dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s, temps will have no problem rising dramatically this afternoon with highs in the mid 90s east to low 100s west. Both DFW and Waco could reach the 100 degree mark, which would be the 7th time this summer for DFW and 6th time for Waco if it occurs. Tonight will see increasing cirrus spread in from the west in association with Tropical Storm Lorena off the west coast of Baja California Sur, which will keep low temps up in the low to mid 70s despite the very dry low level airmass. Tomorrow will see cloud cover continue to increase as moisture levels deepen in the mid and upper levels, which will knock high temperatures down a few degrees from today`s toasty levels. In addition, lift from a passing H5 shortwave trough and an approaching cold front from the north are anticipated to generate scattered mid-level showers and a few thunderstorms across Central and especially North Texas late Friday afternoon into Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings show little CAPE with values generally around 500 J/Kg or less, but inverted-V type thermodynamic profiles with extremely steep low and mid level lapse rates and a dry atmospheric column. Therefore, despite the meager instability, a few storms could produce strong winds given the environment. SPC has highlighted North-Central and Northeast Texas in a marginal risk for tomorrow afternoon/night due to this potential. Shamburger && .LONG TERM... /Issued 119 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025/ /Saturday through Wednesday/ Moisture will continue to gradually deepen at all levels over the weekend into Monday as the remnant moisture from what`s left of Tropical Storm Lorena spreads into the state. Latest guidance is not as aggressive with rain chances for our CWA over the weekend as a strong area of surface high pressure centered over the Midwest keeps the bulk of Lorena`s moisture to our southwest. Even so, at least some scattered showers and storms are anticipated, with the highest rain chances on Sunday across our southwest counties. Latest total QPF amounts range from a few hundredths of an inch across our northeast up to nearly an inch in our southwest. Regardless of precip chances, temperatures look to be much cooler from Saturday through Monday with highs only in the 70s and 80s areawide. Whatever rain we get this weekend will have to last for quite a while as the rest of next week and the foreseeable future looks hot and rain-free, thanks to a strong H5 ridge building from West Texas into the Central Plains. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 80s to mid 90s from Tuesday onward, although the NBM guidance highs may be on the low side given the forecast hot and dry airmass. Shamburger && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ A brief shift to west winds is occurring in the Metroplex at the moment associated with the southward drift of a weak front. Winds will return to light south in the next hour or so as the front retreats north. The front will get a stronger southward push Friday evening as a shortwave trough drops southeast through the Plains. A shift to north winds will accompany the front, with FROPA likely occurring around this time tomorrow in the Metroplex, and a couple hours later at KACT. Will add a line for north winds at 05/23Z in the Metroplex TAFs. Elevated convection is also possible behind the front associated with the shortwave, and will add a line for VCTS at 06/03Z in the extended DFW TAF. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 97 66 80 68 / 0 20 30 20 20 Waco 75 98 70 82 70 / 0 10 20 30 30 Paris 73 93 63 78 64 / 0 10 40 30 30 Denton 73 97 62 80 65 / 0 20 30 20 20 McKinney 73 96 63 80 65 / 0 20 30 30 20 Dallas 77 99 66 81 68 / 0 20 30 30 20 Terrell 73 95 66 81 67 / 0 10 40 30 30 Corsicana 76 97 70 83 70 / 0 10 30 30 20 Temple 73 97 70 84 69 / 0 5 20 30 20 Mineral Wells 73 98 63 81 65 / 0 20 20 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$