021
FXUS64 KFWD 222327
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
527 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and breezy south winds are forecast
  this weekend.

- Thanksgiving Day`s forecast is trending cool, dry, and breezy.

- North Texas`s first widespread freeze is becoming more likely
  Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening through Sunday Morning/

BLUF: gradually warming conditions are expected across the region
as we head through the first half of the weekend.

Southerly winds will return to North and Central Texas tonight as
a surface ridge continues to slide eastward, promoting an uptick
in warm air advection. Overnight lows will be a couple of degrees
warmer than last night for most, with temperatures bottoming out
in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Areas within East Texas will remain
slightly cooler as they are located closest to the departing
surface ridge, with lows dropping into the mid-upper 30s.

The upper level ridge overhead will begin to break down over the
weekend in response to shortwave disturbances moving onshore the
Pacific Northwest. Zonal W-E flow will prevail and with southerly
winds at the surface and low-levels, will continue the warming
trend across North and Central Texas. Afternoon highs on Saturday
will be slightly warmer in the upper 60s to mid 70s with mostly
sunny skies. Pressure falls to our northwest in the lee of the
Rockies will tighten the surface pressure gradient and increase
wind speeds over the course of Saturday afternoon, with speeds
around 10-15 mph mph and gusts up to 20-25 mph possible. Overnight
lows going into Sunday morning will be on the rise as more
meaningful warm advection occurs, with low temperatures in the 50s
expected region-wide.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1252 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024/
/Sunday Onward/

The synoptic pattern across the CONUS this weekend and much of
next week will feature zonal flow with a strong west-east PFJ
aligned across the central part of the CONUS. This will result in
a few systems moving across the region and a temperature roller
coaster locally over the next 7-10 days.

As alluded to above, warm and moist advection will be in full
force Sunday with highs in the low 80s expected for most of the
area. Our current forecast highs for Dallas-Fort Worth and Waco
aren`t daily records, but would be top 5 on record. It will also
be breezy with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and peak gusts of
30-35 mph. The first downswing in temperature will occur Monday
behind the week`s first cold front. Since FROPA won`t occur until
after daybreak Monday for most, expect a mild and humid start to
the workweek. The front should move into North Texas near daybreak
and move across all of North and Central Texas over the course of
the day. The front will bring a dry airmass into the region, so
daytime highs should still be able to climb several degrees and
negate the cold advection. However, Monday night/Tuesday morning
will be noticeably cooler, about 20 degrees cooler than the night
before in some spots.

The surface high will quickly translate east with south flow
returning by Tuesday and warmer weather returning Wednesday. The
PFJ will dip south late Wednesday, basically aligning over North
Texas late in the week. This southward shift in the jetstream has
increased our confidence in a cooler Thanksgiving Day. We have
also removed the mention of precipitation from our forecast since
the quick-hitting nature of next week`s systems leave a lot to be
desired in terms of moisture flux and the ability for the weather
systems to produce precipitation.

Regarding Thanksgiving day...most of the guidance has a cold front
moving through our area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
High pressure should build into North and Central Texas Thursday,
resulting in a stiff north breeze and decreasing clouds in the
afternoon. It`s still a bit too soon to know specific wind speeds
and temperatures, but we`re becoming confident in it being a cool
and breezy holiday this year. Thursday night`s forecast has also
trended much cooler. Most of North Texas outside of the Metroplex
now has a 50-70% chance of experiencing a freeze Friday morning.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Light and variable winds are now beginning to settle out of the
E-ESE this evening. Over the rest of the night and into tomorrow
morning, winds around 5 kts or less will gradually veer more
towards the SE and eventually out of the south by tomorrow
afternoon. Speeds will be on the increased late tomorrow morning
in response to low pressure to our northwest, with speeds around
10-12 kts and gusts up to 18-20 kts expected through the afternoon
and early evening hours. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through the
period with FEW-SCT high-based cirrus streaming overhead.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    45  72  57  79  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                40  74  56  83  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               37  68  50  77  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              37  72  54  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            38  70  53  78  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              43  72  57  80  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             38  71  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           42  73  55  81  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              39  76  55  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       39  76  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$