Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
677 FXUS64 KFWD 020131 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 831 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will continue east of I-35 this evening into tonight. Strong downburst winds and heavy rain will be the main threats. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out. - One or more thunderstorm complexes could affect portions of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning, before seasonably hot and dry weather resumes next week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 128 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025/ /Through Saturday Night/ Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon across North and Central Texas with locally heavy rainfall and strong downburst winds possible. Where storms persist or repeatedly train, a localized flash flood threat may emerge and continue through the evening hours, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. The broader synoptic pattern remains characterized by subtropical ridging positioned over southeast AZ and southwest NM with a series of weak shortwave troughs rotating around the upper-level ridge. These disturbances are providing weak large-scale ascent across the region, while the stalled surface front currently draped over North Texas remains quasi-stationary for the next 24 hours. The frontal zone will likely be the most favored area for initial convective development, in response to low-level convergence. However, convective temperatures in the mid/upper 90s will support scattered thunderstorm development further south across Central Texas as afternoon temperatures peak in the upper 90s. Moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) beneath steep mid- level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear (less than 15 kts) will support pulse-type thunderstorms this afternoon, characterized by brief, rapid intensification and decay. While widespread severe weather is unlikely, isolated downburst winds up to 40 to 60 mph may occur with the strongest storms. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable due to the isolated to scattered coverage of today`s storms. Aerial averages of 0.5 to 1.5 inches remains most likely, though very localized totals of 3 to 5 inches are possible given expected slow storm motions and increasingly PWAT rich environment. The reasonable worst case scenario (90th percentile) continues to highlight an area near and northeast of the DFW Metroplex, where rainfall totals could exceed 5" (through 7 AM Saturday) in a few isolated areas. Storm coverage should wane later this evening with the loss of daytime heating, though some lingering showers and storms may persist through the overnight hours, particularly east of I-35 where weak ascent associated with the passing shortwave will remain in place. Temperatures tonight will settle into the lower to mid 70s. By Saturday afternoon, the shortwave is expected to begin pulling away from the region. This will likely usher in a relative lull in convective activity, though residual moisture and lingering weak mesoscale boundaries may support at least isolated to widely scattered storms during peak heating. Coverage should be lower than what we see today, with the greatest concentration expected across Central and East Texas. Slightly drier air and a modest northerly surface wind shift will also allow temperatures to remain slightly below normal for early August, with highs ranging from the upper 80s in the northeast to low-mid 90s elsewhere. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 128 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025/ /Sunday Onward/ Persistent moisture and another mid-level perturbation embedded within northwesterly flow aloft is expected to support additional convective development over the higher terrain of the southern Rockies late Saturday and early Sunday. This activity is currently projected to make a run at our northwestern zones after daybreak. Storm chances will continue through the day as the shortwave passes overhead. With weak north-northwest flow aloft continuing, another embedded ridge-topping perturbation/shortwave will lead to increasing rain chances again Sunday night into Monday. By Monday afternoon, the upper-level ridge to the west should begin to build eastward into the Plains shunting rain chances into East Texas and Louisiana. Seasonably hot and dry weather will return through the remainder of the period with the re-expansion of the ridge. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s by midweek, with a few triple digit readings possible north of I-20 and west of I-35 through the end of the week. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR conditions are expected to be dominate at airports tonight, but VCTS through 03Z with tempo TSRA may bring IFR conditions. MVFR cigs are anticipated to impact D10 on Saturday morning between 13-17Z, with a return to VFR thereafter. North to northeast winds up to 15 knots will continue through the TAF period. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening across North Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 90 75 93 75 / 40 30 0 10 30 Waco 75 92 74 94 75 / 40 30 10 10 30 Paris 72 88 68 89 69 / 50 30 0 5 20 Denton 72 90 71 93 71 / 30 20 0 10 40 McKinney 73 89 71 92 71 / 40 30 0 10 30 Dallas 75 90 74 93 74 / 40 30 0 10 30 Terrell 73 90 71 92 71 / 50 40 5 5 20 Corsicana 75 93 74 95 75 / 50 40 10 10 20 Temple 75 94 73 96 75 / 40 30 20 10 30 Mineral Wells 72 94 72 95 71 / 20 20 0 20 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$