Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
565 FXUS64 KFWD 181853 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 153 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will continue through Tuesday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for parts of the area through Tuesday. - Storm chances will steadily tick upward (30-60%) through the middle of the week as a frontal boundary approaches the region. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday/ Hot and humid conditions prevail across the region after a line of morning convection developed west of I-35. This activity has drifted westward through the day and weakened within light easterly flow aloft. In its wake, scattered cumulus has developed across North Texas with some very light showers now showing up across our far eastern counties. For the rest of this afternoon, isolated convection (~10%) is still possible pretty much anywhere in the region, but the favored area will be near the Red River and east of I-35 where low level moisture convergence is a little higher. Any lingering afternoon convection should wane after sunset with a warm and clear night expected. Tuesday should feature similar conditions to today although low level winds will become more northerly through the day ahead of a weak frontal boundary. The actual temperature gradient with this front should remain across Oklahoma, but a light north wind is expected as far south as Central TX. Moisture should become pooled across our eastern counties through the day and we will likely see a slight uptick in temperatures tomorrow afternoon. Dewpoints may struggle to mix into the 60s across the region tomorrow, so we`ve reconfigured the Heat Advisory and extended it through tomorrow evening. Similar to today, isolated convection (~10%) is expected across most of the region but there may be a better coverage into Central TX where better moisture is located. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday Night through Sunday/ By Tuesday night a shortwave will rotate around the eastern periphery of the upper ridge and the actual cold front will slide south into North Texas for Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage across the region by late afternoon aided by weak mid level ascent. Coverage of storms will increase to 40-50% across much of the region with a diurnal decrease Wednesday night. The lingering frontal boundary will continue to provide a focus for afternoon storms through the end of the week, although a gradual southward push is expected by Friday. Severe weather is generally not expected, but locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning can be expected from these storms. Localized heavy rainfall may result in a few instance of flooding. Increased cloud cover and precipitation will result in slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Afternoon satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus across the region with some vertical extent. Any of these could eventually develop into an isolated shower or storm, but coverage is expected to be around 10% or less. We`ll maintain precip free TAFs for now, but continue to monitor satellite/radar trends for increasing TS threat this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR will prevail with light southerly flow. Winds will become more northeasterly late tonight and Tuesday although speeds will only be 5-7 kt. Similar to today, there will likely be isolated TS in the afternoon, but coverage is only expected to be around 10%. Greater storm chances will arrive on Wednesday. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 98 80 100 80 97 / 10 0 5 10 50 Waco 98 77 99 77 97 / 10 5 20 10 50 Paris 99 76 101 76 96 / 5 0 5 20 40 Denton 98 77 101 77 98 / 20 0 5 10 50 McKinney 98 77 101 77 97 / 5 0 5 10 40 Dallas 100 81 102 81 100 / 10 0 5 10 50 Terrell 98 77 100 77 97 / 10 0 5 10 50 Corsicana 98 77 100 79 99 / 10 5 10 5 50 Temple 98 75 100 75 98 / 10 5 20 10 50 Mineral Wells 97 74 100 75 96 / 30 5 10 10 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091-092-102. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ093>095-103>107- 118>123-134-135-146>148. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ133-145-158>162- 174-175. && $$