Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
685 FXUS64 KFWD 242325 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 625 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - An approaching cold front will bring increasing rain chances and eventually cooler air into North Texas late Monday through the rest of this upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 124 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ /Today through Monday Afternoon/ The region continues to find itself wedged between the mid-level high to our west and the mid-level trough to our east/northeast. NW flow aloft is allowing a cluster of storms currently located up in Northern Oklahoma to move south, though this activity is expected stay north of the Red River. Further south, there continues to be a low chance for isolated showers and storms in eastern Central Texas this afternoon, similar to days prior. We are already observing both a bubbling Cu field across Central Texas and showers developing just off to our east near the Anderson/Cherokee County line. Severe weather is not anticipated with any of this activity, though strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain will serve as the main threats with any more robust storm. With the isolated, popcorn nature of our diurnally-driven convection, most everyone will remain dry this afternoon, observing afternoon highs in the mid-upper 90s. Another cluster of storms will move southeast through Oklahoma overnight into Monday as a mid-level shortwave and associated cold front transits through the Southern Plains. Though most activity should remain out of our area during the day, we can`t rule out a shower/storm or two near the Red River in the late afternoon. Otherwise, another seasonal late August afternoon is expected, with afternoon highs once again in the mid-upper 90s. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 124 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ /Monday Evening Onward/ The aforementioned cold front will move through North Texas late Monday, with scattered showers and storms expected to continually develop near/along the frontal boundary. The front is expected to continue moving south on Tuesday, eventually stalling in South/Central Texas. The front will also come with a push of cooler air, with afternoon highs ranging from the low 80s near the Red River, to the low-mid 90s ahead of the front. The front will eventually lift north into East and east-central Central Texas as a warm front on Wednesday, continuing to serve as a focus area for convection through the end of the week as disturbances transit around the ridge. In response to this, afternoon highs will perk up slightly midweek, with highs in the mid/upper 80s to mid 90s both Wednesday and Thursday. This will not last long as another front will move in, bringing additional rain chances and sending temperatures back into the 80s to low 90s as we head into next weekend. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow. Winds are currently light easterly, but will transition to southeasterly this evening while remaining around 8 kts or less through the rest of the forecast period. After 00z Tuesday, an outflow boundary and/or effective frontal zone will push into D10 from the north, and this will result in a northeast wind shift for Monday night. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 96 74 87 71 / 0 5 10 20 10 Waco 73 96 74 94 72 / 0 0 0 10 10 Paris 72 94 69 81 67 / 0 5 30 30 20 Denton 73 97 71 85 68 / 0 5 20 20 20 McKinney 73 97 71 85 68 / 0 5 20 20 20 Dallas 77 98 75 89 72 / 0 0 10 20 10 Terrell 72 96 72 87 69 / 0 0 10 20 10 Corsicana 73 97 74 91 71 / 0 0 5 10 10 Temple 72 96 72 94 70 / 0 0 0 10 20 Mineral Wells 71 96 70 87 68 / 0 5 10 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$