Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
682 FXUS64 KFWD 021753 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1153 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain showers will develop along and east of the I-35 Tuesday. - A cold front Tuesday will bring cooler temperatures by Wednesday with highs in the 50s. Near freezing lows are expected Thursday morning. - Warm and dry conditions are expected this weekend with highs in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Surface high pressure under convergence aloft will make for a pleasant day across the region. Skies will remain clear, and above normal temperatures are forecast with highs in the mid to upper 60s. A few locations across the Big Country may briefly reach the low 70s before sunset. For portions of Grayson and Cooke counties where there is still a snow/ice pack in place, highs will struggle to make it out of the 50s. This evening and into tonight, a moisture tongue will be advected northward across Central Texas and eastern North Texas with dew points increasing into the 50s. This will moderate overnight lows, with areas south of a line from Comanche to Fort Worth to Paris generally remaining in the 50s. Drier air north of this line (the Big Country and Red River Valley) will allow for temps to drop into the 40s tonight. Tomorrow, a shortwave trough will dig south across the Great Plains as the longwave trough over the eastern CONUS amplifies. At the surface, a cold front will move south in tandem with this upper-level feature. Flow aloft will strengthen in response to the temperature gradient across the frontal zone resulting in a jet streak extending from North Texas into the Deep South. Speed divergence aloft in conjunction with PVA from the approaching vort max to the north will bring widespread synoptic forcing for ascent to the area. As such, expect widespread cloud cover across the entire region, and scattered rain showers to develop along and east of the I-35 corridor. The greatest rain chances will be in East Texas (50-70% chance), with more isolated coverage expected closer to the I-35 corridor (20-50% chance). Weak lapse rates will all but negate the potential for thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts will also be on the lower end, with rainfall totals likely remaining under 0.25". && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Tuesday night, the aforementioned cold front will have already moved through North and Central Texas bringing north winds and lows in the 30s. Wednesday will be near or slightly below average with highs largely remaining in the low and mid 50s. Ridging over the western CONUS will shift east into the Great Plains by Thursday as surface high pressure again moves into the region. Clear skies and west winds at 5-10 mph will keep humidity down and allow temperatures to climb into the upper 60s. By the weekend, the longwave pattern will begin to shift favoring troughing over the western CONUS and ridging out east. A shortwave will amplify as it comes ashore from the Western Pacific and traverses the Great Basin. Ahead of this upper-level feature, the return of southerly winds at the surface will allow Gulf moisture to return to our area. This will set the stage for increased chances for rain (potentially some thunderstorms) by the end of this weekend into early next week. While the details on the exact timing and evolution of this next disturbance precludes a more detailed analysis on storm potential next week, severe weather is currently not expected. Regardless of how this system evolves. Persistent southerly flow at the surface and ridging generally over or just east of the Great Plains will support above normal temperatures this weekend into next week with highs in the low 70s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 A cold front will bring north winds of 10-15 kts behind it tomorrow morning. Most likely timing for the Metroplex TAF sites are between 13Z and 15Z, and for KACT between 15Z and 18Z. Low stratus will develop across North and Central Texas tonight after midnight. Cigs will continue to drop into the morning, but will scatter out after 14Z. There is a low chance (20%) of a brief period of BKN IFR cigs at Metroplex TAF sites (particularly DFW and DAL) between 14Z and 17Z, but have kept this cloud deck in TAFs SCT for now as clouds should begin to clear after frontal passage. BKN/OVC IFR ceilings are more likely east of the I-35 corridor tomorrow morning through 18Z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 50 64 38 / 0 20 20 0 Waco 68 55 65 38 / 0 20 30 0 Paris 62 47 61 33 / 0 40 30 0 Denton 66 43 62 32 / 0 10 10 0 McKinney 65 49 62 34 / 0 20 20 0 Dallas 67 52 64 38 / 0 20 20 0 Terrell 65 51 64 35 / 0 30 40 0 Corsicana 68 55 68 38 / 0 30 50 0 Temple 68 53 67 38 / 0 10 30 0 Mineral Wells 70 45 64 34 / 0 10 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Darrah