314
FXUS64 KFWD 310539
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1139 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is possible for mainly areas near and east of I-35
  Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Dry conditions continue through early next week, with well above
  normal temperatures expected this weekend. Temperatures next
  week may exceed 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1128 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/
/Friday through Friday Night/

An upper low on satellite imagery across the Texas panhandle will
continue shifting eastward across Oklahoma today, with main impact
for our forecast area being increasingly gusty west winds. This
could create some limited fire danger issues in our western
counties during the day, but the recent rain should help mitigate
this. Otherwise, highs will warm into the mid to upper 60s by
this afternoon. Winds will subside late this afternoon with clear
skies anticipated overnight, which should allow for some patchy
fog formation especially east of I-35 on Friday night into early
Saturday morning.

Shamburger

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes were made to the long term portion of the
forecast. Conditions will remain dry for the entire region, with a
gradual warming trend expected over the weekend and into next
week. Temperatures may exceed 15 to 20 degrees F above
climatological normals. This will push afternoon highs through the
first half of next week into the upper 70s and low to mid 80s.
There will be some increasing clouds as a dry cold front pushes
through North and Central Texas. Temperatures look to return to
seasonably cool territory toward the end of the upcoming week. For
more details, please see the previous discussion down below.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Onward/

Mid-level pressure rises will welcome us into the weekend,
ensuring fairly tranquil sensible weather conditions through the
weekend. A shortwave trough, taking a rather southerly track
across Mexico, will slowly move from west to east. Given its far
distance from our region, this shortwave will have no impacts on
our region. Our weather will have a greater influence from a
developing surface low across the Central Plains, turning our
winds out of the southwest as early as Saturday afternoon. The
southwesterly winds will continue through the weekend, ensuring a
warming trend through at least Monday. Temperatures both Sunday
and Monday will be in the 70s east of I-35 with 80-83 degrees
along and west of I-35.

By Tuesday, confidence in the daytime temperatures decreases as
several ensemble members continue to indicate a cold front moving
south and stalling around the I-20 corridor. Ensemble analysis
continues to show a bimodal distribution in potential
temperatures, with the greatest probabilities in the mid to upper
70s. The lesser peak clusters daytime temperatures in the 50s and
60s, however, this probability remains at or below 20%. We`ll
continue to assess the latest guidance and adjust Tuesday`s
temperatures if needed.

Whether or not a front pushes into our region, southerly flow
will pick up on Wednesday in response to rapid surface pressure
falls along the Front Range. Temperatures will once again rise
into the upper 70s to lower 80s with moisture streaming in from
the Gulf of Mexico. With moisture streaming in, a few showers and
storms may develop across the far northeastern counties.
Widespread precipitation is looking unlikely.

Beyond Wednesday, there is good agreement that a cold front will
slide south across our region during the Thursday/Friday
timeframe. This should usher in cooler air with highs returning to
the 50s next weekend and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1128 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/
/06 TAFs/

Dust will continue to affect Metroplex airports early in the TAF
period, but conditions will remain VFR with clouds limited to
just scattered cirrus. Southwest winds early this morning will
veer to westerly by 11-12Z and increase with gusts to 25 knots at
times. Winds will veer to northwest and decrease after 22Z with
SKC expected the rest of the TAF period.

Shamburger

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    49  65  40  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                45  66  38  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               41  61  37  65  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              48  64  35  71  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            48  64  37  68  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              49  65  39  69  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             47  64  38  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           46  66  40  69  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              43  68  38  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       45  68  37  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$