Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
777 FXUS64 KFWD 031820 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 120 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are likely across North and Central Texas this afternoon with primarily a heavy rainfall and damaging wind threat. - Another thunderstorm complex will shift south over North and Central Texas early Monday morning into midday Monday. - Seasonably hot and dry weather resumes by Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday/ Scattered thunderstorms have developed along a remnant outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a MCV-type feature early this afternoon. Expect additional scattered development through the remainder of this afternoon and into this evening particularly along and north of the I-20 corridor. Coverage south of I-20 will remain quite a bit more isolated. Brief, heavy downpours and gusty downburst winds greater than 40 mph will be the primary hazards. We cannot rule out a more robust storm or two this afternoon capable of producing small hail and marginally severe wind gusts. Storm coverage will quickly diminish after 7-8PM this evening. Later tonight, a vorticity maxima will round about the southwestern periphery of an upper-level low settled over northern Missouri leading to the development of another overnight thunderstorm complex in the Southern Plains. The latest suite of high-resolution guidance is in decent agreement that this complex will emerge out of southwestern Oklahoma and dive south-southeast into North Texas after 2-3AM tonight, reaching the Metroplex around or just before sunrise Monday morning. Stronger wind profiles and greater large-scale ascent may promote a higher threat for severe wind gusts and greater system longevity late tonight into midday Monday than today`s complex. With ascent remaining over the area through Monday over a plume of 1.7-1.9" PWATs, additional isolated to scattered shower and storm development will likely take place during the afternoon and early evening with a general decrease in coverage from north to south after 6PM as the mid/upper trough shifts over the SE CONUS. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday and Beyond/ High pressure over the Desert Southwest will expand eastward early in the work week bringing hot and dry conditions back to the region Tuesday through the remainder of the long-term forecast. Temperatures will gradually ramp up through the week with afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s by Wednesday or Thursday. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Widely scattered thunderstorms have quickly developed this afternoon along a slow, eastward-advancing outflow boundary remnant from this morning`s storm complex. We will carry 30-40% thunderstorm chances and subsequent VCTS at the D10 terminals through the remainder of the afternoon and into early this evening. Brief TSRA impacts are likely with heavy downpours and wind gusts to 40-50 kts beneath the stronger cores, like the cell currently entering the KDFW vicinity as of 18Z this afternoon. Wind direction will predominately be out of the northwest for a couple hours behind the outflow boundary before returning out of the southeast, but variable, erratic winds are likely with any thunderstorm downbursts. Storm coverage will quickly diminish after 00Z this evening with another thunderstorm complex expected to enter North Texas early Monday morning (around ~09Z-10Z). Strong wind gusts and brief, heavy rain will be possible once again for a few hours Monday morning. Rain chances will shift into Central Texas by midday Monday with all rain chances diminishing by late Monday afternoon. Langfeld && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested this afternoon across parts of North Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 73 89 74 93 / 20 40 40 5 5 Waco 93 74 88 73 91 / 5 30 40 10 10 Paris 89 69 86 69 91 / 5 20 30 5 5 Denton 94 70 89 71 94 / 20 40 40 5 5 McKinney 91 71 87 70 93 / 10 40 40 5 5 Dallas 94 73 89 74 93 / 20 40 50 5 5 Terrell 92 71 88 70 93 / 10 30 40 10 5 Corsicana 94 74 89 73 96 / 5 40 50 10 10 Temple 96 74 91 72 93 / 5 30 40 10 10 Mineral Wells 95 71 90 70 95 / 20 40 30 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$