Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
896 FXUS64 KFWD 190658 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 158 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will continue through this afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for parts of the area through 8 PM this evening. - Storm chances will steadily tick upward (30-60%) through the middle of the week as a frontal boundary approaches the region. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tuesday Night/ The upper level ridge will continue to retrograde westward towards the Four Corners today allowing a few weak disturbances to ride around the eastern and southeastern periphery across North and Central Texas. In the lower levels, a weak cold front will begin to sag southward through the Central Plains, in response to a broad trough over the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. Ahead of this boundary, a diffuse low-level wind shift will push through North and Central Texas today resulting in shallow convergence within the moist and modestly unstable air mass. This combination of abundant moisture, strong daytime heating, a passing weak shortwave, and the pre-frontal wind shift should support another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Coverage will be similar to the past several days, averaging around 10 to 30 percent. Any storms that develop will be slow-moving with the potential to be efficient rain producers, yielding brief heavy downpours along with frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds. Organized severe weather is unlikely given the weak shear. Activity will diminish quickly after sunset, though a few showers or storms could begin to redevelop near the Red River toward daybreak Wednesday as frontal convergence increases. Additionally, the recent streak of above-average August heat will unfortunately persist under the continued influence of the ridge. High temperatures will surge into the upper 90s to lower 100s this afternoon. With no relief from the humidity, heat indices will again push past advisory thresholds in parts of the region, especially east of I-35. A Heat Advisory remains in effect along and east of a Bowie to Fort Worth to Palestine line through 8 PM this evening. 12 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday through next Monday/ The cold front will finally push into North Texas on Wednesday leading to an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon. This surface boundary will serve as the primary focus for convection through the end of the week as it continues to slide southward towards the coast. Severe weather remains unlikely, but frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms that develop. Friday into the weekend, rain chances will trend lower and become mostly confined to Central Texas in the wake of the boundary. The weather pattern could remain active into next week, however, as we will continue to be positioned between the ridge over the Four Corners region and an amplified trough over the eastern CONUS. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR prevails with light and variable (though predominately southerly) winds through mid-morning. A north-northeasterly wind shift is still expected to occur ahead of the approaching weak cold front, but given the calm to light wind speeds the wind shift is not likely to be discernible until wind speeds increase with daytime mixing (after 16Z). There is a low (~10%) chance for isolated showers and storms to develop in the vicinity of the airports again this afternoon, however the likelihood of this activity occurring at the terminals remains too low to introduce any mention of precipitation with this update. 12 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 98 77 94 76 / 10 40 30 20 10 Waco 78 98 75 94 73 / 5 50 50 40 30 Paris 75 97 73 94 72 / 20 30 30 20 10 Denton 76 98 73 96 73 / 10 40 30 20 10 McKinney 77 98 74 94 73 / 10 40 30 20 10 Dallas 80 99 77 96 76 / 10 40 30 20 10 Terrell 77 98 73 94 72 / 10 50 40 30 20 Corsicana 77 98 75 94 73 / 5 50 40 40 20 Temple 75 98 74 95 72 / 10 50 40 50 30 Mineral Wells 75 98 73 96 71 / 10 40 30 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102>107- 118>123-134-135-146>148. && $$