Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
059 FXUS64 KFWD 151754 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms (50-70% chance) are expected today across Central Texas with more isolated coverage (15-30%) across North Texas. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-30% chance) remain possible Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening. - Drier and hotter conditions are expected this weekend into next week with temperatures returning into the 90s and lower-100s. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 A weak upper level disturbance remains in place over much of Texas today, bringing another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for rain (50-70%) will be along and south of the US-84 corridor, where moisture and lift are maximized. Slow, erratic storm motions will keep the threat for localized heavy rain and flash flooding. Chances for showers and storms decreases northward, becoming isolated to widely scattered (below 40%) north of the I-20 corridor, as subsidence moves in and brings some drier air along. After sunset, precipitation chances diminish yet further, with only isolated showers or storms (15-30%) south of I-20 and west of I-35. The best ascent associated with the upper level disturbance tracks west tomorrow, with higher heights building in from the east. Although moisture remains abundant, the lack of forcing will limit shower and storm coverage to an isolated chance (15-30%) for much of the area. West of I-35 and south of I-20, closest to the upper level low, those chances increase to 40-50%. As with the last several days, the main hazard with these storms will be isolated heavy rain and flash flooding. Where clouds and showers dominate, temperatures remain on the cooler side, with highs across Central Texas in the low to mid-80s. Across North Texas, where skies will be clearer, highs will run in the low 90s. By tomorrow, as shower activity diminishes and skies clear, Central and North Texas will see highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 The upper level low continues to track west through the end of the week, moving into the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. Enough lingering moisture and lift will be around to keep isolated showers and storms in the forecast for areas generally west of I-35 on Friday. Enough clouds and showers will be around to give the region one last day of near to below normal temperatures, before more typical summer conditions return. High pressure builds in overhead through the weekend and into next week, introducing some drier air, sunny skies, and warmer temperatures. Highs this weekend will be near-normal, in the mid-to-upper 90s. Early next week, temperatures rise above normal, with upper 90s to low 100s expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Shower and thunderstorm development has been robust over Central Texas this morning, and a cluster of stronger storms is moving north toward the D10 airspace. As a result, have added VCTS through 01z, when convective activity should drop off. KACT will continue to carry a mention of TSRA through the afternoon as well, with heavy rain producing periods of MVFR to LIFR conditions. The overnight period will see VFR conditions prevail, although MVFR cigs are expected to develop between 14z and 16z tomorrow. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 89 75 93 / 10 30 10 20 Waco 72 87 74 91 / 20 40 10 10 Paris 71 88 73 91 / 10 10 10 20 Denton 72 89 73 93 / 10 30 10 10 McKinney 73 88 74 91 / 10 30 10 10 Dallas 75 90 76 94 / 10 30 10 20 Terrell 72 90 73 92 / 10 30 20 20 Corsicana 73 91 75 93 / 10 30 10 20 Temple 72 86 73 91 / 30 50 20 10 Mineral Wells 70 87 72 91 / 20 50 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bealo LONG TERM....Bealo AVIATION...Bealo