Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
967 FXUS64 KFWD 030007 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 707 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of the Brazos Valley through 1 PM Thursday. - Localized flash flooding will be possible south of I-20 and east of I-35 through Thursday night. - Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across much of the Big Country into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 703 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026 The biggest change made this evening to the forecast was to markedly lower afternoon temperatures across our eastern counties tomorrow afternoon. With lingering rain and cloud cover, latest guidance keeps our southeast in the mid-upper 80s instead of the low-mid 90s as previously thought. Otherwise, outside of massaging precipitation chances the rest of this evening, no additional changes were made to the forecast. The previous discussion below remains valid. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026 Tropical Depression Edouard, located just southeast of Palestine, is currently bringing widespread precip with periods of heavy rainfall to parts of the Brazos Valley and East TX. Tropical moisture has boosted rainfall rates, and portions of southeast TX outside our area have received significant (well over 10") rainfall from this system. A Flood Watch is in effect until Thursday afternoon for Anderson, Freestone, Henderson, and Leon Counties, where total precip through tomorrow is likely to reach 3-6 inches and up to 8" in localized areas. We expect the heaviest rainfall to begin late this evening and continue through mid-morning Thursday. Be sure to use extra caution at lower water crossings and poor drainage areas. If you see a flooded road, turn around, don`t drown! Besides this small area along and east of I-45, locations in Central TX will likely not be directly impacted by Edouard. Instead, isolated showers and a few storms will have a 10-30% chance of developing this afternoon, particularly in Central TX, where moisture transport and instability are highest. Gusty outflow winds are possible with the more intense cells. High temps today will be in the upper 90s to near 100 except for our Flood Watch counties, where widespread cloud cover from Edouard will keep temps in the 80s. On Thursday, a low-level wind response to lee cyclogenesis in Colorado will displace low-level moisture to the north of the decaying mid-level vorticity max associated with Edouard`s remnants in eastern Central TX. As a result, 10-30% rain chances on Thursday will expand to cover much of North and Central TX. High temps on Thursday range from 90 to just over 100 in a general E to W gradient based on expected rain chances and cloud cover. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Big Country through the short term period given low RH values (25-35%) and hot weather near 100 each afternoon as well as the breezy (10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph) winds on Thursday in this area. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026 A mid-level ridge that had moved over southern Appalachia will begin to slide westward back toward the Plains on Friday, pushing remnant vorticity from Edouard south of our area by Saturday. In the meantime, mid-level moisture will continue to support low rain chances for areas along and south of I-20. Once overhead, the ridge will support above-average temperatures (mid-90s in Central TX and near 100 in North TX) through early next week. Most will remain dry after Friday except for the Brazos Valley, where moisture from another weak tropical wave will contribute to low chances of diurnal showers and storms each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026 E-ESE winds will gradually shift further out of the southeast by overnight as Tropical Depression Edouard`s circulation continues to move further into Texas. Expect a slug of moisture and MVFR cloud cover to overspread portions of the region just after 06Z, mainly impacting eastern D10 sites. Have transitioned FTW/AFW to a TEMPO MVFR as much of these cigs should remain just east, but may move overtop the terminals between 08-12Z. By early afternoon, cigs should lift for DFW/GKY, but will likely remain MVFR at DAL throughout the day. ACT will likely remain VFR as probabilities remain low enough through this TAF period. We may see some isolated to scattered showers develop near and east of the I-35 corridor late in the morning and afternoon, impacting ACT beginning around 15-21Z and DFW/DAL/GKY closer to 22-01Z. There is uncertainty on the coverage and exact timing of D10 development through the evening, so have ended the VCSH at 01Z. There may need to be an extension further into the evening depending on future forecast guidance. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 95 77 96 / 10 30 30 10 Waco 78 96 75 96 / 20 30 30 20 Paris 75 93 74 97 / 20 20 10 10 Denton 79 97 74 97 / 10 20 30 10 McKinney 76 90 74 94 / 10 30 20 20 Dallas 78 94 78 97 / 10 30 30 20 Terrell 76 90 74 95 / 50 50 20 20 Corsicana 75 89 74 94 / 60 40 30 30 Temple 78 99 74 97 / 20 30 30 30 Mineral Wells 75 101 73 99 / 0 20 30 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ135-147-148-162. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fenske LONG TERM....Fenske AVIATION...Prater