Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
001 FXUS64 KFWD 231052 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 552 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily low storm chances through the weekend across parts of North and Central Texas. Most locations will stay dry! A couple strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening through at least Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Friday) Issued at 115 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Breezy south-southeast winds will usher in warm/humid conditions and another round of low stratus later tonight into Thursday morning. Expect overnight lows to only drop a few more degrees into the mid to upper 60s by sunrise. Clouds will linger through the morning and into the early afternoon, finally lifting and scattering out by ~3PM Thursday. South winds at 15-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph at times will prevail through the afternoon with temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s across a good chunk of North and Central Texas. Many locations along the I-35 corridor may struggle to escape the upper 70s with cloud cover remaining at least scattered to broken into the evening hours. A highly conditional threat for a severe storm or two may materialize late Thursday afternoon and evening in the vicinity of a dryline along/north of I-20 and west of I-35. A substantial capping inversion will likely inhibit convective initiation from occurring, but on the low chance that a storm is able to develop, we will keep 10-15% PoPs in the forecast northwest of the Metroplex. If a storm does go, the environment will support large hail and damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorm development is more likely across Central OK and KS, and we will be monitoring a thunderstorm complex late Thursday night into Friday morning as it pushes into southern Oklahoma and toward the Red River. The remnants of this complex may push into our far northern and northeastern counties Friday morning before diminishing and pushing off to the east by midday Friday. Outflow boundaries left by the morning convection and a sharpening dryline may provide a focus for isolated thunderstorm development late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. An unstable and sufficiently-sheared environment will be present, but will storms be able to get going? A few uncertainties and limiting factors to the late Friday storm potential do exist: 1. The location of the outflow boundary/effective front Friday afternoon. It is possible that the morning convection stays north of the Red River and the only focus for thunderstorm development in our area is the dryline. 2. The lack of large-scale ascent may not be there to provide additional lift outside of circulations along the dryline and focused lift near any remnants outflow boundaries. Forecasted LFCs are in the 4000-5000 ft range Friday, so the lack of upper-level support may keep thunderstorms from developing or at least keep coverage quite isolated. 3. A capping inversion may also inhibit convective initiation. The area with the best potential to see CINH removed enough for CI after 4-5PM Friday afternoon will be along/east of I-35 and along/north of I-20. All of this to say, the severe threat on Friday is conditional as well and a widespread severe weather event is not expected. Any showers and storms that do develop will diminish and push east of our forecast area late Friday evening. && .LONG TERM... (This Weekend and Next Week) Issued at 115 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 The severe weather threat may increase some as we head into the upcoming weekend and the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more conducive to thunderstorm development over parts of North and Central Texas. Sufficient deep-layer shear will overlap strong instability late Saturday into Sunday east of a dryline expected to reside near the US-281 corridor. More widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected up in Oklahoma and Kansas over the weekend, but lift should be sufficient enough to get at least isolated thunderstorms to develop near the dryline both late Saturday and late Sunday. Not everyone will see storms through this weekend and many will remain dry through the next several days. A weekend washout is NOT expected! This somewhat active spring weather pattern looks to continue into early next week with at least low end daily thunderstorm chances through Tuesday-Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 MVFR cigs now overspread all of North and Central Texas and will remain overhead through the morning and into the early afternoon. Intermittent IFR cigs will still be possible through the morning, but this potential has lowered. VFR conditions will return by ~20Z this afternoon. South-southeast winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts at times will prevail through the TAF period. There is a very low chance for an isolated storm or two to develop across parts of northwest Texas late this afternoon and evening (no impacts at the terminals are expected). MVFR stratus will return Thursday night after 07Z-08Z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 69 87 66 / 0 10 20 10 Waco 81 69 87 68 / 0 10 10 10 Paris 78 68 82 62 / 0 20 40 30 Denton 79 67 86 62 / 0 10 20 10 McKinney 78 69 85 64 / 10 10 20 20 Dallas 80 69 89 67 / 0 10 20 20 Terrell 80 69 86 65 / 0 10 20 20 Corsicana 82 71 88 68 / 0 10 20 20 Temple 80 69 88 68 / 0 10 10 10 Mineral Wells 82 67 88 62 / 10 10 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Langfeld LONG TERM....Langfeld AVIATION...Langfeld