397
FXUS64 KFWD 231727
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1127 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog is likely Sunday night into Monday morning along and east of
  the I-35 corridor, and the fog could get dense in some areas
  with visibility dropping to near zero.

- Warm, sunny and dry weather is expected this upcoming week with
  highs in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Monday Night/

The earlier rain has moved east out of North and Central Texas
this morning, with clouds now gradually clearing from west to
east. Skies should be mostly to completely sunny by this
afternoon with much warmer temperatures in the mid 50s in our
eastern counties up to the low 70s in our west. This will begin a
period of significantly warmer weather for our forecast area
which will continue through this week. However, one more chilly
night is anticipated tonight with clear skies and light winds
allowing temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 30s. With
significant crossover temps of 5-10 degrees overnight and the
other favorable conditions, nearly all guidance has a strong fog
signal after midnight into Monday morning generally along and
east of I-35. Used the HREF for visibility and fog coverage since
it seemed most reasonable. A Dense Fog Advisory is a good bet for
our eastern and southeastern counties overnight, with the main
uncertainty how far west the widespread dense fog will spread.
After the foggy Monday morning, a beautiful and mostly sunny late
February day is on tap for North and Central Texas with highs
reaching the mid 60s in our east to the mid 70s in our west -
which is around 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Shamburger

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 303 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/
/Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Warm, sunny, and rain-free weather will prevail on Tuesday, with
afternoon temperatures climbing into the 70s areawide. A few
areas across the Big Country may even reach into the low 80s.
Warmer weather will continue into Wednesday, but an increase in
cloud cover is expected as an upper level trough dives into the
Southern Plains and sends a cold front towards the area. The front
is currently slated to arrive Wednesday afternoon and will not be
accompanied by any precipitation, as moisture return will be
insufficient prior to its arrival. The main exception will be
portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley where a stray
shower can`t be entirely ruled out, but chances are currently very
low (only around 10% or less).

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the front
on Thursday, with afternoon highs dropping back into the 60s. The
cool-down will be short-lived as south winds will resume on
Friday, which will allow above normal temperatures to return
through next weekend. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement
that rain chances will return sometime next weekend as an upper
level system approaches from the west, but there are still some
timing discrepancies. Stay tuned as these details come into focus
over the next several days.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected at airports today with decreasing
clouds and light southeast winds. Fog will bring MVFR/IFR/LIFR
visibility to airports overnight between 09-15Z, and visibility
could be lower than currently forecast. Improvement back to VFR
is anticipated by 15Z Monday morning along with south winds 5-10
knots.

Shamburger

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  38  70  46  76 /  20   0   0   0   0
Waco                61  38  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               54  33  64  41  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
Denton              63  35  70  42  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            58  35  67  44  73 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dallas              59  38  70  46  75 /  30   0   0   0   0
Terrell             56  35  67  44  73 /  60   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           59  38  69  46  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
Temple              64  37  72  44  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  37  74  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$