597
FXUS64 KFWD 221030
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
530 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil and pleasant weather conditions will continue through
  Tuesday morning.

- Storm chances will increase starting Tuesday afternoon with
  additional waves of showers and storms through the weekend.
  Flash flooding and severe weather chances will also increase
  during this timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to account
for recent cloud trends and the latest data overnight. The
previous forecast remains in good shape, and no major adjustments
were necessary. Stratus and patchy fog are currently surging
northward into Central Texas. Expect this trend to continue over
the next couple of hours, with any fog remaining fairly brief in
nature. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop in
portions of Central/East Texas this afternoon, with additional
chances tonight and Wednesday. See previous discussion for more
details.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday/

Low-level moisture will be on the rise through the remainder of
the night, resulting in warmer overnight temperatures and the
development of stratus later tonight. A warm front will begin to
lift northward through the area this morning and will likely
result a brief period of patchy fog generally east of the I-35
corridor and near/south of I-20. While we can`t rule out dense
fog in some areas, any occurrence should be isolated and brief.
Therefore, a Dense Fog Advisory is not anticipated at this time,
but we will monitor trends closely through the morning.

Any fog will dissipate by mid morning, with morning stratus
scattering out by midday. This afternoon, the first of a series
of upper level disturbances will move across the area. If
destabilization is sufficient as this disturbance arrives,
scattered showers and storms may develop across portions of
Central and East Texas. Given the lack of forcing, the severe
weather threat will remain fairly isolated. However, any stronger
storms will be capable of producing severe hail and damaging wind
gusts.

Some of this activity may continue into the evening hours,
but our focus will then turn towards an active dryline late this
evening into the overnight hours Tuesday night. Storms are
expected to develop near the dryline in far West Texas with the
arrival of another upper level disturbance. There is still
significant uncertainty in whether any of this activity will
survive the journey into North and Central Texas, but if it does,
it should be on a weakening trend as it encounters a more weakly
sheared environment. We will keep PoPs broad-brushed through the
overnight hours, but it`s possible the better potential for
showers and storms will occur on Wednesday. If the decaying
convection sends any boundaries into North and Central Texas, they
would serve as a focus for additional convective development with
the arrival of another disturbance. Similar to Tuesday, any severe
threat would remain fairly isolated, with hail and damaging winds
expected to be the main hazards.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 210 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/
/Wednesday Night onward/

The active weather pattern will persist through the remainder of
the forecast as North and Central Texas continues in a warm and
moist environment.

With a lack of strong or concentrated forcing mechanism,
confidence in exact timing of thunderstorm activity through the
end of the week will remain low. With latest guidance suggesting
dryline thunderstorms well west of our region through much of the
week, our rain chances will largely be dependent on synoptic-
level features and diurnally driven convection.

The first period with higher rain chances will be on Thursday as
a shortwave moves across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. This
shortwave will be moving overhead during the afternoon hours as
peak heating takes place. Thunderstorm activity will likely
develop, however, it`ll largely be disorganized given no focus for
ascent. Thermodynamic parameters suggest there may be enough
instability for a few strong to severe storms in North Texas,
however, shear profiles will be rather weak, keeping thunderstorms
from reaching their full potential. In addition to the strong to
marginally severe storms, heavy rain is likely from any
thunderstorm. If this rain happens to fall over already saturated
soils, flooding could become a concern. This system will migrate
eastward through the day, leaving behind decreasing rain chances
through the night.

Friday onward, shortwaves will take a more northern trajectory
across Oklahoma. With the dryline remaining across far West Texas
and the western Texas Panhandle, our rain chances will be limited
and dependent on any thunderstorms that migrate towards North
Texas each evening. For now, the entire region should remain
precipitation free Sunday - Monday with the exception of those
west and northwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

Heading into a new week, a deep trough will be digging
southeastward across the Rockies. This is likely to drive the
dryline further east, potentially increasing storm chances Tuesday
and Wednesday. We`ll need to monitor the mid-week period next
week as the environment may be favorable for additional vigorous
storms. Exact hazards remain uncertain; expect additional
information through the rest of the week.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Fog and stratus are currently surging northward into Central
Texas, and this trend will continue over the next couple of
hours. The northward extent of the stratus is still a bit
uncertain, but a mention of MVFR conditions were maintained in the
TAFs at this time, with a brief period of intermittent IFR or LIFR
ceilings possible at KACT/Waco. VFR conditions should return by
midday at the very latest.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop in portions
of Central/East Texas this afternoon, but coverage will remain
fairly limited. While this activity may approach the KACT
terminal, confidence in the exact location of any showers and
storms remains low. Another round of storms will approach from
the west overnight, but this activity should be on a weakening
trend. Additional storms are possible on Wednesday, but the best
potential remains outside of the extended TAF period. MVFR
ceilings are likely at all terminals late tonight into Wednesday
morning and have been introduced to all TAFs. Otherwise, south to
southeast winds near 10 knots or less will continue through the
period.


Barnes

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    85  65  81  66  80 /   5  30  70  50  70
Waco                88  66  81  66  83 /  20  40  70  30  70
Paris               82  62  80  63  77 /   0  10  70  40  70
Denton              85  62  80  63  78 /   0  40  70  40  70
McKinney            83  63  80  64  78 /   0  20  70  40  70
Dallas              87  67  82  66  80 /   5  30  70  50  70
Terrell             85  65  80  65  80 /  20  20  70  40  70
Corsicana           86  66  81  67  82 /  20  30  70  40  70
Temple              88  66  82  67  83 /  20  40  70  30  70
Mineral Wells       87  63  80  63  81 /   0  50  70  40  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$