Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
795 FXUS64 KFWD 072316 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 616 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms are expected in eastern portions of North Texas this evening. Additional rain chances will exist across eastern North and Central Texas on Tuesday. - Above normal temperatures will continue through the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 Cumulus continues to develop across Central and North Texas early this afternoon as temperatures climb into the mid 90s. GOES PW imagery shows 2 inch PWs extending from the Hill Country through southeast TX and into Louisiana with a small drop in values farther north. We are drier today across North Texas than we were yesterday. At the surface, an old remnant frontal boundary is still present and draped across the Arklatex with light northerly flow across parts of Arkansas and light southerly flow to the south of the boundary. This area will feature persistent moisture convergence through the afternoon and with continued heating we should see some scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. Some of these may make it into our northeast counties over the next several hours and we`ll maintain some 10% PoP there. Otherwise, it`ll continue to be hot and humid with highs near 100 and heat indices between 104-107 degrees. The heat will continue into Tuesday and we`ll extend the current Heat Advisory configuration through Tuesday evening. We may see a little more shower/storm activity tomorrow afternoon as a weak impulse moves out of the mid-South and around the southern periphery of ridging over the Plains. Weak ascent associated with this feature and ample deep layer moisture should result in a notable uptick in convection to our south and east through the afternoon. Some of this activity may spread into our far eastern counties where we`ll have some 20% PoPs. Outside of slightly higher rain/storm chances in the east, most areas will stay dry with highs again 5-10 degrees above normal. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 Ridging will continue to flatten out a bit through the middle of the week as a series of disturbances move through the Central and Northern Plains. There is still a signal in the guidance that a frontal boundary will sag south toward the area by Thursday. Meanwhile, weak upper troughing associated with a westward moving wave over the Gulf will be located across South Texas. We should see showers and thunderstorms ongoing mainly to our north along the frontal boundary on Thursday while sea breeze activity to the south results in higher than normal coverage of showers and storms across southeast TX. This pattern would favor at least a slight uptick in rain chances for both our northern areas (mainly along the Red River) and our central TX and southeast counties. In addition, a little more cloud cover may knock a few degrees off of afternoon highs. Otherwise, hot conditions will continue into next weekend with perhaps a little more active pattern headed into the middle part of next week. Dunn && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 VFR conditions will continue with no aviation concerns. Isolated showers and storms will persist across portions of northeast Texas into the evening, but this activity is expected to remain northeast of D10. Winds will be out of the south to southeast between 5 to 10 knots through Tuesday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 101 80 100 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 78 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 10 Paris 76 100 76 99 / 20 20 10 10 Denton 78 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 78 100 77 100 / 10 10 0 10 Dallas 82 101 81 101 / 0 10 0 10 Terrell 77 99 76 100 / 0 10 0 10 Corsicana 77 99 76 99 / 0 10 0 10 Temple 77 97 76 99 / 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 75 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-102>107- 118>123-133>135-146. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dunn LONG TERM....Dunn AVIATION...Barnes