569
FXUS64 KFWD 270004
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
604 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front Wednesday evening will bring much cooler
  weather for Thanksgiving Day.

- Most of North Texas and parts of  Central Texas will see the
  first freeze of the season Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Another cold front Saturday night will bring more cold weather
  for early next week, with more overnight freezes possible.


&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Evening/

Zonal flow will transition to broad troughing across the CONUS
over the next 24 to 36 hours as a pair of shortwaves drop
southeast from the northern Rockies into the Plains. This pattern
shift will send another strong cold front south through North and
Central Texas Wednesday evening. A narrowing pressure gradient
ahead of the front will generate breezy and warm conditions on
Wednesday. Downslope flow associated with southwest winds will add
a few degrees to afternoon temperatures, with highs reaching the
lower 80s across western Central Texas and even parts of North
Texas. The rest of the area will be plenty warm in the mid and
upper 70s. Warm, dry and breezy weather may elevate the threat for
grass fires Wednesday afternoon for areas west of I-35 and south
of I-20.

One exception to the upper 70s/lower 80s may be the Red River
counties depending on when the cold front arrives. Highs may peak
near 70 around midday, followed by falling temperatures mid to
late afternoon behind the front. The front should reach the I-20
corridor 5 to 7 PM and Central Texas 7 to 10 PM. Gusty southwest
winds ahead of the front will remain gusty while shifting to the
north behind the front. Cooler and breezy conditions can be
expected Wednesday evening with temperatures falling into the 50s
by midnight.


30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 250 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024/
/Wednesday night through Tuesday/

Our well-advertised second cold front of the week will be plunging
southward into Central Texas through the evening hours on
Wednesday, with strong cold advection occurring in its wake. By
daybreak on Thanksgiving, wind chill temperatures will be hovering
in the 30s and lower 40s across North Central Texas, with gusty
north winds and overcast skies lending a definite wintertime feel
to the holiday. Brisk north winds will continue to pump chilly
Canadian air southward across the region on Thursday, though by
afternoon we should experience a definitive clearing trend from
north to south. This trend should yield sunny conditions generally
north of I-20 by mid afternoon, with clearing commencing later in
the afternoon and evening farther south. Highs will struggle into
the lower and middle 50s in most areas, with readings closer to
60 across the southern tier of our counties.

The combination of clear skies and slackening winds will allow
temperatures to drop into the upper 20s across many areas west
through north of the Metroplex Friday morning. This will represent
the first definitive freeze for many areas of North Central
Texas. The only areas that will avoid the freezing mark will be
the urban core of the Metroplex and most of the areas along the
I-35 corridor south of DFW. Indeed, just about anywhere in the
forecast area may see freezing conditions Friday morning, at least
in low-lying or otherwise sheltered locations. Will likely be
issuing a Freeze Watch for much of the area tomorrow, followed by
a Warning on Thursday. Precautions for tender plants, animals and
other items will be required by Friday morning.

Friday will represent a near carbon copy of Thursday,
temperature-wise, with most locations remaining in the 50s under a
cool, light northeast flow regime. The absence of stronger winds,
and a full day of sunshine will make it seem a bit warmer,
however. After chilly starts both Saturday and Sunday morning, the
weekend afternoons will feature continued sunny weather and
cooler than normal conditions, followed by a modest retrenchment
of high temperatures as we enter the first two days of the coming
week. The introduction of low level moisture and weak isentropic
lift late on Monday through Tuesday will enable the development of
patchy light rain across the southeastern zones Monday night into
Tuesday. Kept low PoPs in place for this portion of the forecast
area, though QPFs should remain very light.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

South winds of 5 to 10 kt overnight will veer to the southwest
while increasing to 15-25 kt late Wednesday morning ahead of the
next cold front. FROPA in the DFW Metroplex should occur just
prior to 00Z Wednesday evening, and just beyond this TAF period
for KACT. Gusty northwest winds can be expected Wednesday evening
behind the front.

MVFR ceilings over Central Texas should erode over the next hour
or two, but will likely reform overnight. A TEMPO for MVFR has
been added to both the Metroplex and Waco TAFs Wednesday morning.
Conditions should otherwise remain VFR.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    53  78  44  54  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                52  85  47  58  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               46  72  43  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              48  77  40  54  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            49  78  42  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              51  80  44  55  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             51  78  45  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           53  81  49  57  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              52  84  47  60  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       47  82  40  55  29 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$