462
FXUS64 KFWD 050532
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Above normal temperatures and dry weather will prevail through
   the weekend.

 - A weak cold front Sunday night will mark the return of
   slightly cooler weather, but temperatures will still remain
   near to above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Weekend/

Warm and quiet weather is expected through the weekend with highs
in the low to mid 90s both days. A high pressure ridge will settle
over North and Central Texas this afternoon, keeping the winds
light and the skies clear for most of the area. A few cumulus will
develop across Central and East Texas, but no meaningful precip is
expected as strong subsidence aloft squashes any burgeoning
showers. Tonight will be another mild night with lows in the 60s
for most of the area, but the low 70s for those in the immediate
Metroplex. A cold front will approach the region late in the day
Sunday, but the winds will likely become out of the north ahead of
the front once the boundary layer mixes in the mid-morning. Recent
guidance is indicating a low pressure system deepening in the
western Gulf of Mexico over the next few days that will result
in northerly flow Sunday. Despite the lack of southerly flow, it
should still be a little more humid Sunday as the cold front
"pushes" moisture south ahead of the boundary.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 219 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024/
/Saturday Night Onward/

Over the latter half of the weekend and the beginning of the new
work week, the upper level ridge responsible for our abnormally-warm
temperatures will be flattened as an upper low moves across southern
Canada. The accompanying longwave trough will dig south as it moves
east across the Central Plains, sending a weak cold front through
the region late Sunday through Monday. With a lack of appreciable
moisture and greater lift, FROPA will be dry for all of North and
Central Texas. Additionally, any reprieve to the above-normal
temperatures will be minimal with highs still peaking in the mid 80s
to low 90s behind the front. These temperatures will remain 5-15
degrees above normal, though slightly drier air will keep outside
conditions relatively fair.

There remains a possibility of tropical development in the Gulf of
Mexico over early-mid week, with the National Hurricane Center
currently highlighting a 50% probability of cyclone formation in
the next 7 days. North and Central Texas will likely miss out on
rainfall from any realized tropical system, as model guidance
continues with a track towards the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

In the wake of the departing low well to our northeast, upper level
ridging will build in across the western CONUS mid-late this
upcoming week. Afternoon highs each day will continue to top out in
the mid 80s to low 90s, with low afternoon humidity. Long-range
models are showing another upper low and digging trough moving east
across the CONUS next weekend, with an accompanying cold front
surging southward through the Plains. As this time frame is out of
the scope of the long term forecast period, we will not get into
details in this discussion. However, we`ll keep an eye on this and
any potential forecast impacts as we get closer in time.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Light winds are expected through the pre-dawn hours. Winds for the
early morning push will likely be variable, but wind speeds below
05 kts should provide flow flexibility for traffic managers. East-
southeast flow between 5-10 kts is expected from about 15Z onward.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  91  71  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                63  93  68  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               59  90  65  92  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              59  91  65  92  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            62  91  67  93  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              65  93  70  93  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             64  91  67  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           66  93  69  93  66 /   0   5   5   0   0
Temple              64  93  66  93  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       57  90  63  92  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$