Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
619 FXUS64 KFWD 212308 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 608 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures will prevail through next week with highs in the upper 90s to 100 each afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1228 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025/ /Monday through Tuesday Night/ Another warm day is in store for North and Central Texas as we remain on the western periphery of a lower Mississippi River Valley ridge. A mid-level low continues to meander across the Texas Hill Country, providing just enough ascent for clouds and even a few rain showers. Given a dry sub-cloud layer, precipitation is unlikely to reach the ground. Temperatures today will continue climbing into the mid and upper 90s. As we`ve seen over the last couple of days, dew points have mixed out each afternoon, keeping heat index values below 105 degrees. This is once again expected this afternoon with just a few isolated locations climbing to heat index values of 105-107. As the mid-level low migrates north tomorrow, additional cloud cover is expected for areas west of I-35. This should help keep temperatures from reaching the triple digit mark throughout North and Central Texas. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1228 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025/ /Wednesday Onward/ Ensemble analysis continues to suggest a gradual increase in afternoon temperatures through the rest of the week, with the hottest temperatures expected to be on Thursday and Friday. This should lead to a large portion of the region reaching 100-103 degrees and widespread heat index values above 105 degrees. The hot temperatures will likely moderate some this weekend as mid and upper level heights decrease in response to shortwave arriving from the east. Given overall large scale subsidence across our region, rain chances will remain below 10% through the rest of the work week. As the easterly shortwave inches closer to our region this weekend, a few showers and storms may develop across the Brazos Valley in the afternoon. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ VFR will prevail at all D10 TAF sites, with diurnal cumulus at 4-5 kft and FEW/SCT cirrus. Winds will remain southerly at 10-20 kts into tomorrow with daytime gusts near 25 kts. There is a chance for a brief MVFR stratus intrusion to occur at Waco around and after daybreak tomorrow morning, and this will be addressed with a Tempo group. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 97 78 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 75 94 74 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 75 96 74 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 75 98 76 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 76 98 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 77 98 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 75 97 75 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 76 98 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 74 95 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 98 75 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$