Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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499 FXUS64 KFWD 181043 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 543 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will climb back above normal this weekend, but unlike the preceding weekends this month, it will be pleasant. - The warming trend will continue into next week with temperatures approaching 90 degrees by Tuesday. - A grass fire threat will persist into next week with continued rain-free conditions. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Some low 40s across the eastern counties are the cool spots this morning, with upper 50s across a few of the western-most counties coming in as the warmer locations. A dry, seasonable and overall pleasant day can be expected for the rest of today. The ongoing forecast is in good shape with only minor grid adjustments needed for this morning`s update. 30 Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday/ An upper low currently digging south through the Great Basin will become cut-off from the mean flow over the southern Rockies over the next 24 hours, and remain positioned there through the weekend. North and Central Texas will be sandwiched between the low and a mid/upper ridge over the eastern CONUS, essentially a complete 180 from the pattern a week ago. At the surface, a ridge will be all but synced with its mid and upper level counterpart while a trough lies in lee of the Rockies. The resulting return flow has already been in place for a day, and should continue through Saturday. A gradual warm-up will be the outcome, with temperatures climbing from 5 to 7 degrees below normal Thursday, to near normal today (Friday), to around 5 above normal on Saturday. Winds will remain generally out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH. The best moisture return will actually be over the western zones, where some scattered to broken clouds are possible, but most of the region will continue with mostly sunny days and clear nights. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 237 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ /Saturday Night Through Late Next Week/ Little change to our weather pattern is expected through early next week, allowing our slow warming trend to continue. On Monday, the cutoff low over the Four Corners Region will be pulled to the northeast before transitioning to an open wave as it moves into the Upper Midwest. Unfortunately, this transition will allow upper level ridging to become increasingly pronounced across North and Central Texas, resulting in another rise in temperatures. High temperatures will return to the mid 80s to low 90s areawide Tuesday through Thursday - approximately 10-20 degrees above normal for late October. From mid-week onward, ensemble guidance is fairly evenly split between either keeping us in a warm/dry regime or transitioning to a cooler and perhaps more active pattern. For now, have opted not to stray from the NBM, which advertises a continuation of warm and rain-free weather, given the lack of confidence in either solution. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Southeast surface winds of 6 to 12 kts this morning will increase to 10 to 15 kts this afternoon. A dry and stable airmass will otherwise provide VFR and overall tranquil aviation weather through Saturday. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 56 78 56 79 / 0 5 0 0 0 Waco 81 54 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 76 47 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 78 51 79 49 81 / 0 5 0 0 0 McKinney 78 50 79 49 81 / 0 5 0 0 0 Dallas 79 55 80 55 82 / 0 5 0 0 0 Terrell 79 49 79 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 81 52 81 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 81 54 83 53 84 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 77 54 80 51 82 / 5 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$