290
FXUS64 KFWD 051033
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
533 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring scattered showers and storms to North
  Texas this evening, and to Central Texas on Wednesday. A few
  strong to severe storms are possible near and east of Interstate
  35.

- A cooler and mostly dry end to the workweek is forecast with
  temperatures near or below normal on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Moist southerly low-level flow will continue to resupply our warm
sector with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s during the next
12 hours. The arrival of low-level moisture will be depicted by a
developing swath of low stratus which will overspread the eastern
half of the CWA by sunrise. Partial clearing can be expected
during the daytime, while veering southwesterly low-level flow
preceding the arrival of a cold front allows high temperatures to
reach the mid 80s to lower 90s. This boundary will drift into
North Texas by mid afternoon, and should serve as an impetus for
isolated/scattered convective development during the late
afternoon and evening period. However, as has been discussed the
past few days, there are a few factors mitigating the expected
magnitude of the severe weather potential today. The primary
factor will be a sizable capping inversion, which may struggle to
become sufficiently eroded due to a lack of synoptic scale ascent,
most of which is lagging behind the frontal arrival time by as
much as 12 hours. Another will be storm motions and shear vectors
oriented largely parallel to the initiating boundary which will
likely result in some degree of updraft interference and a much
lower potential for storms to maintain discrete structure. The
aforementioned veering low-level flow in immediate vicinity of the
boundary will also result in mostly straight hodographs, which
will result in quick splitting of any initial supercell structures
that may attempt to become established. We`ll continue to
advertise a very conditional severe threat from late afternoon
into the evening mainly from the DFW Metroplex to the north and
east where initiation attempts are the most plausible along the
front. However, a null event is a very realistic possibility given
these aforementioned inhibitors to convective development and
strength. Any storms that do manage to develop will have access to
sufficient speed shear and instability to support severe
hail/wind hazards.

The overnight period into early Wednesday morning is likely to be
fairly tranquil with the idea that any convection Tuesday evening
will dissipate after sunset with loss of heating. The slow-moving
front will continue to make slow southward progress into Central
Texas overnight, and the boundary will once again be the main
feature of interest for Wednesday`s forecast. Additional
convective attempts will likely occur along the front Wednesday
afternoon while it is draped somewhere through Central Texas,
although its precise location will not be know for another 24
hours. Some guidance is rather eager in pushing this boundary
southward out of the forecast area as early as mid afternoon
which would mean a quick end to storm chances within the CWA,
while coarser global guidance wants to maintain its stationary
position for several hours allowing storm chances to persist into
the evening. Many of the same inhibiting factors for convective
development and strength will be in place again Wednesday
afternoon in Central Texas as Tuesday, and this once again may
significantly limit convective coverage and intensity barring some
substantial change to the track of an upper level impulse or more
pronounced forced ascent occurring along the boundary. The
prefrontal warm sector will once again be capable of supporting
severe convection should any be able to initiate. Most activity
should be exiting the area to the southeast and/or diminishing in
intensity Wednesday evening. With North Texas being in the post-
frontal airmass through the daytime, highs will only reach the
low/mid 70s, while the warm sector in Central Texas still
experiences highs up to 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Thunderstorms should be exiting the area to the southeast on
Wednesday evening with a cooler and dry airmass building in behind
the southward advancing cold front. Thursday morning`s lows
should be able to fall into the 50s and even upper 40s as a
result, with afternoon highs as much as 10-15 degrees below normal
in the upper 60s and lower 70s. A secondary shortwave pivoting
through large-scale parent troughing could aid with isentropic
ascent atop the cool surface airmass, perhaps allowing for rain
chances to continue across Central Texas during the daytime
Thursday. However, the majority of the area is expected to be dry
through the remainder of the workweek while near or below normal
temperatures continue. With building heights and a return to warm
southerly flow by the weekend, temperatures will quickly return to
above normal on Saturday and Sunday with highs in the upper 80s
and 90s. Indications are that another frontal intrusion may occur
late next weekend offering additional storm chances, but there is
still significant variability among guidance as it pertains to
this scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

MVFR stratus has overspread Central Texas and is skirting the
eastern Metroplex airports of KDAL, KDFW, and KGKY as of 1030z.
Tempo groups advertising reduced cigs will be included for these
TAF sites for the next couple of hours, but this cloud deck
should get shunted eastward fairly quickly within veering
southwesterly low-level flow. Later this afternoon, a cold front
will sag into North Texas which will cause gusty southerly surface
winds to diminish in speed while veering increasingly westerly.
Isolated convective attempts are expected along the front, and
these should be most prevalent east/northeast of the D10 TAF
sites. Will include a brief VCTS around 00z for the northeastern
airports of KDAL and KDFW with the idea that a thunderstorm could
briefly exist near the range rings at one or both of these
airports. The slow-moving front will result in a light north wind
shift at the Metroplex terminals after 00z, with post-frontal MVFR
stratus developing later in the evening which will persist into
Wednesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  62  76  54 /  20  20  10  10
Waco                87  71  83  58 /   0  10  50  20
Paris               84  61  72  52 /  20  40  30  10
Denton              89  57  74  50 /  20  20   0  10
McKinney            89  60  74  52 /  20  30  10  10
Dallas              90  63  78  56 /  20  20  20  10
Terrell             85  66  77  54 /  20  20  30  20
Corsicana           84  70  82  59 /   0  20  60  20
Temple              85  72  85  58 /   0  10  50  20
Mineral Wells       92  57  77  49 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley