Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
763 FXUS64 KFWD 240750 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 150 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms will increase in coverage and intensity through the morning hours. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be the main threats along with frequent cloud to ground lightning. - An increased potential for severe weather may materialize south of I-20 and along/east of I-35 this afternoon into the early evening. All severe weather hazards, including a couple tornadoes, will be possible. - A return to cool and dry conditions is expected by the middle of the week through Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 50s and 60s. Rain chances return next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 139 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Showers and storms are expected to continue to develop to our west/southwest and spread across our northwest counties as a small disturbance moves across the region towards Missouri. This trend will persist over the next handful of hours as waves of convection spreads from SE to NW as those minute shortwaves eject out of the main upper low, currently churning through Colorado and Kansas. Convective coverage will increase across our west and northwest counties through the early morning as the upper low spreads increased lift overtop the region, with showers and storms developing and growing into messy cluster/line segments near the dryline/Pacific front to our west. Over the first half of today, the surface dryline/front and the showers/storms out ahead of the boundary will be ushered eastward as the upper low begins to move towards the Great Lakes. Training storms that are very efficient rainfall producers will increase the flood threat, particularly across North Texas where a majority of the heavy rain from last week`s event fell. The morning commute across much of western and central North Texas (including portions of the I-35 and I-20 corridors) will be impacted today near peak AM rush hour, so make sure to check road conditions, give yourself plenty of time to get to your destination, and drive slowly to avoid hydroplaning! By noon (timing of latest guidance), our messy showers and storms are expected to be mainly near and east of I-35, and will continue to advance east the rest of the afternoon. The increased flood threat will have shifted into eastern North Texas, with the Flood Watch remaining in effect through 3 PM. Overall, most likely totals in North Texas remain 1-3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches possible in the Watch area. South of I-20, storms may begin to get a little hairy. The environment across our southeastern zones (mainly near/south I-20 and near/east I-35 will have a window of increased instability, with continued steep deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates. In this kind of environment, storms would be able to become severe with primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat remains low at this time, but the exact extent remains uncertain. While forecast soundings show decent SBCAPE and 0-1km SRH, and 0-1km shear, dense cloud cover is expected to linger across the southeast the majority of the day. This which would inhibit better diurnal destabilization. We`ll need to watch for 1. any clearing within the clouds, and 2. the orientation of the low- level wind fields, as that would help to increase instability and spin and locally increase the tornado threat. Showers and storms should come to and end tonight, with gradually clearing skies in their wake. Much quieter conditions are expected behind the exiting rain chances. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 139 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 The exiting storm system`s true cold front will be shunted south across the region late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing much cooler conditions for the middle of this week. With ridging building in behind the departing longwave trough, expect dry conditions through the end of the week. For those traveling for the Thanksgiving holiday on Wednesday: Expect morning low temperatures ranging from the mid-upper 30s in the northwest to the mid-upper 40s in southern Central Texas. Even under sunny skies, north winds will aid in keeping afternoon highs in the 50s and 60s. No rain chances are forecast on Wednesday. For those traveling on Thursday / celebrating Thanksgiving: Thursday morning will be the coldest morning of the long term forecast, with low temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40. Some isolated areas could reach freezing. The afternoon will feature continued sunny skies and high temperatures again in the 50s and 60s. Once again, the day will be rain-free. By the end of the week, a shortwave disturbance will approach from the west, allowing increased moisture advection. In response, increased rain chances are expected next weekend into early next week. More details will become available in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 139 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 MVFR cigs have overspread the TAF sites and will continue to gradually lower throughout the first half of the day. Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue to stream on and off across western North Texas, impacting western D10 TAF sites (mainly AFW, FTW, and occasionally DFW). This trend of periodic waves of convection will continue over the next handful of hours, with coverage gradually increasing and shifting eastward towards daybreak. By 10-11Z, expect a messy line of storms to be moving into western D10, with highest TSRA impacts (erratic, gusty winds, IFR or lower visibility, frequent lightning, and heavy rain) possible between 11-14Z across the TAF sites. After the initial heavier convective line moves through, rain and embedded storms are expected to linger through the rest of the morning, with ceilings dropping to IFR. The SE-NW orientation of the storms will make it to where ACT will have their greatest impacts between 17-20Z, though isolated showers and storms will occur around the airport as early as 12Z under IFR cigs. All rain should be east of the Metroplex TAF sites after 18Z and ACT after 22Z, with gradually improving ceilings the rest of the afternoon. Winds will remain around 10 kts or less through the rest of the period, gradually shifting from southeasterly to westerly, and turning west-northwest after 06Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 51 70 43 / 100 0 0 0 Waco 73 50 72 45 / 90 10 0 0 Paris 61 50 66 41 / 100 20 0 0 Denton 69 46 69 38 / 90 0 0 0 McKinney 67 49 68 40 / 100 0 0 0 Dallas 69 52 70 44 / 100 0 0 0 Terrell 66 51 70 43 / 100 10 0 0 Corsicana 72 54 72 46 / 90 30 0 0 Temple 75 50 75 45 / 90 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 46 73 40 / 80 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>120-123-129. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater