Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
881 FXUS64 KFWD 031830 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through Friday with the highest rain chances (60-70%) west of Highway 281. - Most of the thunderstorm activity should weaken in the late afternoon/evening, opening the door for most evening outdoor activities. - Severe storms are not expected, but gusty winds and lightning would still impact outdoor festivities. - Occasional rain chances continue through the weekend and into next week with seasonable high temperatures remaining in the 90s. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Tomorrow/ General Meteorological Setup: If you don`t remember that there was a Tropical Storm in the Gulf just 3 days ago, you probably aren`t alone. However, it`s effects on our local weather have been noted and will continue to plague the region for the next few days. The biggest impact of Barry is from the surge of tropical moisture across the Southern Plains. The morning Fort Worth RAOB sounding observed a PWAT of 2.22", which is above the 99th percentile for this time of the year. However, moisture alone does not cause precipitation. Since the airmass is generally modestly unstable, it doesn`t take much lift to produce precipitation. The entire forecast area is under a broad area of disorganized large-scale ascent in the mid-levels, which is tapping into low-level moisture and developing isolated to scattered showers across the entire region. A few pockets of enhanced lift have triggered thunderstorms, and the boosted ascent from outflow boundaries are developing additional thunderstorms along and behind the boundaries. Forecast Discussion: Most of the forecast area can expect off/on light rain showers through the rest of the afternoon, with a gradual tapering of rain in the evening with the loss of surface heating. Thunderstorms are expected primarily across Central Texas and the Big Country through the afternoon, largely along and behind a northward moving outflow boundary. The main impact from these storms will be brief heavy downpours. As long as they move over areas that have not received heavy rain earlier in the week, it should not cause too large of an impact. We know there are a lot of outdoor events planned this evening. By-in-large, most of the storms and pockets of heavy rain should dissipate between 6-8 pm, opening the door for most events to be a GO. The exception to this should be across the far western parts of our forecast area where a cluster of storms (currently near Midland) will move into the region this evening and tonight. Expect a pretty significant ramp up of precipitation as a weak shortwave trough starts to meander from west to east across Central Texas tonight and tomorrow. We have increased PoPs to 60-70% across the western part of the forecast area, but even those might be under doing it a bit. Widespread rain with a few embedded storms are expected to be ongoing at daybreak tomorrow, mainly west of I-35 and south of I-20. The rain should linger through much of the morning, gradually decreasing in coverage late in the morning into the early afternoon as it slowly moves east. In the afternoon, precip coverage should decrease across North Texas and increase across eastern Central Texas. The coverage of showers/storms should be more hit and miss in the afternoon. Most, if not all, of the precipitation should come to an end by 6-8 pm as the shortwave trough moves east and heating ends. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /This Weekend and Next Week/ The tropical airmass should linger over the region through the weekend, allowing for isolated to scattered showers and storms to continue. However, the coverage of precip should be much less than today and tomorrow. The moisture will finally disperse throughout the region early next week, bringing a return to seasonal weather in the early to middle parts of next week. By mid-week, a strong ridge will build to our west, and a westerly moving TUTT will move across the Gulf...leaving our area in a bit of a col between the two systems. It`s too soon to know if the ridge will win out and widespread triple digit heat return to the area late next week or if the weakness in the ridge brings increased rain chances. Either way, we do not see any high impact weather events moving across the area in the extended forecast periods. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ The aviation forecasts are quite a mess today. Off/on showers are ongoing across the entire area and will continue through the afternoon. Scattered storms are ongoing across Central Texas that should move over the ACT terminal shortly. We have a TS TEMPO with gusty south winds to account for this. Once the initial storms move north, additional storms may move in an hour or so later before storm chances end for today. We`re not expecting these storms to move into D10, however if the outflow continues at it`s current pace we might have to change that thinking. We will assess that by the 21Z TAFs. Precip will generally become less widespread this evening, except well west of D10 and ACT. Ahead of the precip, MVFR and IFR ceilings should overspread the region tonight and tomorrow morning. We aren`t overly confident about the onset timing of the lower ceilings, but are confident that MVFR ceilings with pockets of IFR will be in place tomorrow morning. Most of the heavy precip should stay outside of the TAF terminals, however there is about a 20% chance of thunderstorms impacting the terminals late tonight (from about 7-11Z) and again tomorrow afternoon after 20Z. We aren`t confident in this enough to add VCTS to the TAFs, but will monitor real-time trends through the evening and night. Bonnette && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 75 86 75 92 / 40 40 40 20 20 Waco 88 74 86 73 89 / 50 30 40 10 20 Paris 88 73 87 71 91 / 30 30 40 5 10 Denton 86 73 86 73 92 / 40 50 50 20 20 McKinney 87 74 87 73 92 / 40 40 40 20 20 Dallas 88 75 87 74 92 / 40 40 40 20 20 Terrell 88 74 89 73 92 / 30 30 30 10 10 Corsicana 91 75 88 74 92 / 40 20 30 10 20 Temple 87 73 88 73 90 / 50 30 40 10 30 Mineral Wells 85 72 85 72 91 / 60 60 60 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$