Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
311 FXUS64 KFWD 061816 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 116 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and mostly dry weather will continue with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. - Low (10 to 20%) chance of showers for parts of East and Central Texas today and tomorrow afternoon. The threat of lightning is less than 10%. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Tomorrow/ Generally speaking, the weather will be warm and mostly sunny the next couple days with seemingly little change to the casual observer. However there are some nuances. The first will bring a low (10-15%) chance of brief showers to East Texas this afternoon. A filling low pressure system over eastern Louisiana will continue to drift north, but a weak moisture boundary along the western periphery of the low should move into the eastern parts of our forecast area this afternoon. This boundary is moving underneath a strong subsidence inversion, so the additional lift and moisture will be limited to the lower troposphere--generally below 700 mb or 10,000 ft. With cloud bases around 5-7,000 ft, a very shallow precipitation- bearing layer will limit the chance of precip to 10% or less. Recent high-res guidance also develops a few showers across the Big Country this afternoon, but similar reasons to above (plus an even drier sub-cloud layer) will limit the threat of measurable precip to next to zero. This boundary will washout this evening resulting in light winds overnight. A cold front, currently stalled over the Panhandles and Kansas, will nudge south and move through North and Central Texas tomorrow. I would love to advertise that this will finally bring an end to the abnormal warmth, but it won`t. It will bring a northerly wind shift and a slightly higher (up to 20%!) chance of showers across East and Central Texas tomorrow afternoon, but that`s about it. Strong subsidence aloft will still reside over the region, so the chance of a thunderstorm will still be less than 10% tomorrow. Temperature and dewpoint values tomorrow will be quite similar to today. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday Onward/ The high pressure center behind tomorrow`s cold front will build to our northwest in the middle parts of this week. It will have the most influence on our temperatures on Wednesday afternoon when highs along the Red River fall into the low 80s. However, our Brazos Valley locations will be largely unaffected with highs remaining in the low 90s. A westward moving moisture plume will also move across the region on Wednesday, making the weather feel very similar to today/tomorrow despite the post-frontal airmass. Deeper mixing Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will steadily lower the dewpoint temperature each afternoon. A dry return flow pattern returns this weekend. These patterns occur on the back side of high pressure systems when strong south flow develops over the Southern Plains but the better moisture remains near the coast. The combination of dry, breezy, and warm conditions may result in an elevated fire weather threat Saturday and possibly Sunday for parts of the area before moisture creeps back into the area early next week. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR and light winds will prevail this afternoon and tonight. The winds will generally be out of the east varying between ~050 and ~160 depending on your location. We added an extra line to the DFW TAF to show potential for a northerly wind shift this afternoon if the winds speeds get strong enough, but wind speeds fall below 05 kts after 00Z at all terminals and become light/calm for most of the night. A cold front and northerly wind shift will move through the region tomorrow. Timing is a bit wishy washy, but generally around 15Z for the D10 TAFs and a few hours later for ACT. A few showers are expected to develop east of D10 this afternoon and south of D10 tomorrow. The threat of lightning with any showery activity in our area is less than 10% and next to 0% within D10 for the next 48 hours. Bonnette && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 69 89 66 85 / 0 0 10 5 5 Waco 90 68 90 68 88 / 5 0 20 10 5 Paris 87 67 87 64 83 / 10 5 20 5 5 Denton 89 63 88 61 84 / 0 0 10 5 5 McKinney 89 65 88 64 85 / 5 0 10 5 5 Dallas 91 70 91 67 87 / 0 0 10 5 5 Terrell 89 65 89 64 85 / 10 0 20 5 5 Corsicana 90 70 91 69 88 / 10 0 20 10 5 Temple 91 67 89 66 88 / 5 5 20 10 10 Mineral Wells 92 63 89 62 85 / 0 0 10 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$