Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
045 FXUS64 KFWD 250735 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 135 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense fog and low clouds will continue through mid morning along and east of the I-35 corridor before clearing out. - Cool and dry conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s. - More rain and a few storms return over the weekend into early next week. Severe weather appears unlikely, and current forecast rainfall totals from Friday night through Monday ranging from 1/4 inch to 2 inches. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thanksgiving) Issued at 135 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Latest nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows dense fog and low clouds continue to blanket much of the eastern half of our forecast area, generally along and east of a line from Gainesville to Azle to Waco to Cameron. Although drier air with dewpoints in the 40s is located just west of the area of dense fog, little advection is currently ongoing to push the dry air eastward. Therefore not making any changes to the Dense Fog Advisory at this time. Later this morning around 10Z-12Z, weak CAA will begin and cause a shift to light northwest winds across North Texas, and this may help shift some of the fog out of Texoma and the Metroplex. Otherwise, it will likely take until mid morning to erode the fog and low clouds across the area. Clearing is expected by the afternoon with mostly sunny skies allowing highs to warm into the 60s and 70s. Late this afternoon, a strong cold front will cross the border into North Texas and then race south through our neck of the woods this evening into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Much cooler and drier air is expected behind this front, which will keep our weather nice, quiet and cool through Friday. Lows look to drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s Wednesday morning, with highs only reaching the 50s to around 60s Wednesday afternoon. Thanksgiving morning looks chilly with lows in the mid to upper 30s for nearly all of North and Central Texas, and a few spots could even fall to near freezing. However, sunny skies will allow highs to warm into the 60s by Thanksgiving afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 135 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Clouds will begin increasing significantly on Friday as a 45 kt H5 jet streak moves out of northern Mexico into Texas and a stronger 60kt H5 jet approaches from the central Rockies, causing WAA to strengthen atop the cool layer of air at the surface. No rain is expected during the day on Friday, but by Friday evening scattered showers and a few storms will spread eastward into North and Central Texas from the west. This activity looks to continue Friday night into Saturday, mainly across our eastern two-thirds, before a strong cold front pushes most if not all of the rain out of the area Saturday night. Rain totals for Friday evening through Saturday night should be much lighter than our last two rain events, with totals ranging from less than one tenth of an inch in the Big Country to near an inch in East Texas. Severe weather also appears unlikely as any appreciable instability stays off to our south and kinematics remain on the weak side. Forecast becomes quite complicated from Sunday into early next week as the deterministic 00Z ECMWF and GFS are showing vastly different solutions as a large, deep trough takes shape across the western CONUS. GFS is much stronger and further south with the upper trough, which keeps rain and a few storms going all day Sunday and Monday throughout the region. In contrast, the weaker and further north ECMWF dries us out quickly post-cold front Saturday night and keeps us dry into Monday. GFS ensemble members are also all over the place and show no clear solution, although in general they all show some precipitation Sunday and Monday. Needless to say the forecast for early next week is of low confidence. For now will keep slight to low chance pops for Sunday and Monday out of deference to the GFS. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 135 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Fog and low cigs will be the main issue at all airports early in the TAF period with predominate IFR conditions but tempo VLIFR. Some weak CAA and a switch to light northwest winds around 10-12Z may help dissipate some of the fog in D10, with an improvement to MVFR/VFR conditions. However, latest guidance keeps the fog and low cigs through 15Z so adjustments to a more pessimistic forecast may have to be made later this morning. All fog and low clouds should erode by mid morning with VFR conditions and north winds 5-15 knots expected the rest of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 43 57 41 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 71 44 58 39 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 64 39 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 69 37 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 67 40 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 69 43 57 41 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 68 41 57 36 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 71 45 60 40 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 74 44 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 39 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ092>095- 102>107-117>123-133>135-145>148-159>162-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger