Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
420 FXUS64 KFWD 031911 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 111 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A brief warm-up is forecast today, but another strong cold front arrives tonight with tomorrow being cool and cloudy. - Rain chances return tonight and tomorrow, mainly across East Texas and the Brazos Valley. Occasional light rain or drizzle is expected further west and north. - Near-normal temperatures and mostly sunny conditions return Friday and continue through the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 110 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 The region will be undergoing a mini form of temperature whiplash over the next few days. Yesterday was cool and sunny, today will be mild and mostly sunny (for the western 2/3rds), and tomorrow will be cool and dreary. So, what`s causing this...a low pressure system is currently analyzed near Wichita Falls with a weak cold front extending southwest into the Caprock. This surface low will gradually fill over this afternoon and evening, slowly moving east into/near the I-35 corridor early tonight. As briefly alluded to above, widespread stratus is forecast to remain in place across East Texas and the Brazos Valley today, keeping those areas cool. A much stronger high pressure center and cooler airmass (i.e. strong cold front) will move into the area overnight that will eventually overtake/wash out the surface low. A shallow layer of cooler/drier air will then move into our area from northwest to southeast late tonight and early tomorrow morning. There should be a narrow corridor between the stratus to the east and the drier air to the west where "edge of the stratus" fog is forecast to develop tonight into tomorrow morning. The fog should be short- lived and transitory (generally moving from NE to SW), but may be dense at times. We`re not confident enough the areal coverage or longevity of the fog to issue a dense fog advisory at this time, but know it may be needed for the morning commute for parts of North and Central Texas tomorrow morning. Low-level isentropic ascent overtop of the cool airmass will ramp up (yes, pun intended) this evening and tomorrow morning, mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area. We`re forecasting a broad area of light stratiform precip to develop this evening over eastern Central Texas, becoming more widespread tonight across all of East Texas. Instability is meager, but a few elevated updrafts may result in isolated showers or perhaps a rumble or two of thunder tonight/early tomorrow morning across the southeast. The far southern extent of a quick-moving shortwave trough is forecast to brush across our area tomorrow, resulting in another round of spotty light stratiform precip over the course of the day. By the end of the day tomorrow, measurable precip is most likely across the far southeast and northwest portions of our forecast area, with most of the area between these two (including the Metroplex) receiving very little, if any, measurable precip. All precip- inducing ascent should move east by tomorrow evening, with no mentionable precip chances in the forecast through early next week. Previous forecasts had mention of light freezing rain/drizzle or sleet across the far northwest portions of our area late tonight and tomorrow morning. The latest data has temperatures remaining above freezing the entire time precipitation is expected, so we are only forecasting a cold rain at this time. There is still an outside chance that the actual temperature comes in cooler and falls to 31-32 degrees for some of the extreme northwest parts of our area (roughly northwest of Breckenridge -> Jacksboro -> Gainesville) while precip is falling. Only 5-10% of the data has this scenario unfolding. If this were to happen, freezing drizzle is the most likely precip-type with little to no ice accumulation. At worst, there may be a few slick spots on bridges and elevated surfaces. Outside of precipitation, tomorrow is forecast to be cool, cloudy, and breezy. Daytime highs are only forecast to peak in the upper 30s to low 40s, with wind chill values in the upper 20s to low 30s. Welcome to winter! Bonnette && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 110 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Tomorrow`s system will move east overnight, opening the door for quieter weather in its wake. We`re forecasting another widespread freeze for those north and west of the Metroplex, but most within and southeast of the Metroplex should stay above freezing tomorrow night. Despite no sensible weather in the forecast, our area will remain under southwest flow aloft with a few low pressure systems/wind shifts/cold fronts moving through the area this weekend and early next week. By-in-large, we should be too dry to receive measurable rainfall with any of these system, but do expect the temperatures to seesaw up and down for a few days. It does not look like any high-impact weather systems are forecast through next Tuesday, so keep up with the latest forecast for specifics at weather.gov/fwd. Bonnette && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 South flow should prevail at the D10 terminals today, but a solid sheet of MVFR/IFR stratus blankets the eastern half of our area and the ACT terminal. A weak low pressure system is forecast to approach D10 this evening, resulting in somewhat erratic winds after the sun sets. For now, it looks like the wind will become more southeasterly, then northeasterly later tonight with N flow prevailing thereafter. We are forecasting a narrow corridor of fog to develop between the stratus to the east and the cold front to the west. This looks to occur near D10/I-35 corridor tonight, mainly between about 04-10Z. We are not confident in dense fog, so we only included a TEMPO for low-end IFR vis and LIFR ceilings at this time. Stronger winds should move in late tonight, clearing the fog and lifting it into a stratus deck. At least MVFR ceilings are forecast all day tomorrow, but IFR will be likely in the morning that may extend well into the afternoon. Regarding precip...mainly light showers or drizzle is forecast for the TAF sites, which shouldn`t cause much of an operational impact. There is a low chance of stronger showers at ACT, but all thunderstorms should remain well to the SE of D10 and ACT. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 40 43 34 / 0 10 30 10 Waco 60 45 47 37 / 0 30 50 10 Paris 51 39 42 32 / 0 10 30 10 Denton 60 35 42 28 / 0 10 30 0 McKinney 58 38 42 32 / 0 10 30 10 Dallas 60 42 44 35 / 0 10 40 10 Terrell 55 42 46 34 / 0 20 50 10 Corsicana 54 46 47 38 / 0 50 60 10 Temple 60 45 47 37 / 10 30 50 10 Mineral Wells 62 37 43 29 / 0 10 40 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonnette LONG TERM....Bonnette AVIATION...Bonnette