Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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179
FXUS64 KFWD 152321
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
621 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather will continue through Friday.

- A cold front will bring a chance of storms (30-50%) on
  Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown Saturday night and
  Sunday.

- Warm and dry weather returns early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025/
/Through Thursday Night/

Much of the short-term period will remain under the influence of a
persistent, unseasonably strong upper ridge of high pressure atop
the region. Thus, expect warm afternoon highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s across North and Central Texas this afternoon beneath
mostly sunny skies. Light east-northeast boundary layer winds and
subtle cool air advection will keep temperatures this afternoon
from getting too out of control.

Later tonight, a deep, upper-level low will shift off the West
Coast toward the Four Corners region. This change in the upper-
level pattern will draw a preceding shortwave northward out of
Mexico and over the state of Texas during the day Thursday. Little
change in the observable weather conditions are expected Thursday
with the passage of this wave save a notable increase in mid-level
cloud cover late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night along and
east of I-35. Although southeast low-level flow is expected to re-
establish by mid-morning Thursday, delayed moisture return will
keep the chance for any measurable precipitation through Thursday
night near zero.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025/
/Friday and Beyond/

North and Central Texas will remain in between troughs on Friday
with little notable weather expected minus a very low chance for
some afternoon seabreeze activity across the Brazos Valley. A
strengthening pressure gradient in the lee of the Rockies will
increase winds out of the south by Friday afternoon beginning a
period of slightly more robust moisture return ahead of the main
trough axis still lingering out over the Desert Southwest. South
winds at 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph would cause some concern
for elevated fire weather conditions Friday afternoon, but higher
humidity should temper the overall threat. However, some
localized areas of elevated fire weather conditions may still
arise west of Highway 281 where afternoon RH will likely fall
below 35%.

By Saturday, the aforementioned upper trough should be
transitioning out from over the Intercontinental Mountain West and
over the Central Plains. An attendant cold front should extend
across northern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle by midday
Saturday with a dryline extending south of a surface low over
parts of the Big Country. These surface features will likely
provide a focus for convective development later Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night, however the greatest synoptic-scale
support and lift will reside across the Arklatex region and
points northeastward into the Ozarks. Thunderstorm coverage across
our forecast area will likely remain more isolated to scattered
with the greatest rain chances (30-50%) constrained to locations
east of I-35 in the best deep moisture/lift overlap. Unfortunately,
most locations west of I-35 will likely miss out on any
measurable rainfall during this event. Overall rainfall still
remains uncertain with a wide range of solutions in the ensemble
forecast. The NBM 25th-75th %tile spread ranges from a dry
forecast to 0.75" east of I-35 through Sunday morning. Favorable
shear and instability profiles may overlap for several hours
Saturday evening into Saturday night northeast of the Metroplex,
and we will need to monitor the potential for a couple strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms. But again, it is uncertain how
much storm coverage will materialize late Saturday across our
forecast area and with medium-range guidance trending toward a
slower, more northward-progressing system, widespread rain chances
are looking less probable.

Behind the frontal passage, breezy north winds will usher in a
much drier and more seasonably cool airmass to end the weekend.
Expect afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s along and north
of I-20 Sunday afternoon and the low to mid 80s across Central
Texas. Sunday and Monday morning will be notably cooler with
widespread lows in the 50s. This period of normal, mid-October
temperatures will be short-lived with the upper ridge quickly
filling back in by Monday afternoon. There is some signal that the
upper-level pattern will become more active and progressive by
midweek next week, so stay tuned!

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Easterly winds (080-110) at 5-10 knots will become more
southeasterly (120-150) at around 10 knots after 15Z Thursday.
There is a very low chance (10%) of patchy MVFR ceilings moving
into East and Central TX (KACT) between 06Z and 12Z Thursday.
Probabilities and coverage remain far too low to include in TAFs
at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
at all TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period.

Darrah

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  86  67  88  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
Waco                59  85  64  88  69 /   0   0   0   5   0
Paris               58  86  64  87  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
Denton              58  85  62  87  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            58  86  64  86  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dallas              63  87  67  88  71 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             58  87  62  88  68 /   0   0   0   5   5
Corsicana           61  88  65  88  72 /   0   0   0   5   5
Temple              58  86  62  88  68 /   0   0   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       57  87  62  89  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$