929
FXUS64 KFWD 262050
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
250 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Following a seasonably cool day, a quick warmup is expected on
  Wednesday before another strong cold front arrives Wednesday
  night. Much cooler temperatures are expected Thanksgiving Day.

- The majority of North Texas and several locations across
  Central Texas will see the first freeze of the season Thursday
  night into Friday morning.

- Another cold front this weekend will keep temperatures below
  normal into early next week. Additional freezing conditions may
  occur in localized areas both Saturday and Sunday mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024/
/Through Wednesday/

A seasonably cool day is unfolding across the region in the wake
of yesterday`s cold front. A surface high has shifted east,
resulting in the return of southerly winds. The remainder of the
afternoon will feature temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s
under mostly sunny skies.

A gradual increase in southerly surface winds overnight will
bring in an increase in low-level moisture. This will also keep low
temperatures about 10-15 degrees warmer than previous nights, with
lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. On Wednesday, a surface low will
eject from the lee of the Rockies into the Texas Panhandle and
eventually into Southern Oklahoma. Given it`s proximity, winds
will become breezy across the region by late morning, with wind
speeds around 10-20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph through the
afternoon. Veering winds ahead of the front will likely result in
some downsloping, sending afternoon temperatures into the low to
mid 80s for quite a few locations Wednesday afternoon. However, the
well-above normal warmth will be short-lived, as a strong cold
front will cross the Red River into North Texas late tomorrow
afternoon. Frontal passage for most other locations will be just
outside of the short term period Wednesday evening/overnight. See
the long-term discussion below for more details.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday night through Tuesday/

Our well-advertised second cold front of the week will be plunging
southward into Central Texas through the evening hours on
Wednesday, with strong cold advection occurring in its wake. By
daybreak on Thanksgiving, wind chill temperatures will be hovering
in the 30s and lower 40s across North Central Texas, with gusty
north winds and overcast skies lending a definite wintertime feel
to the holiday. Brisk north winds will continue to pump chilly
Canadian air southward across the region on Thursday, though by
afternoon we should experience a definitive clearing trend from
north to south. This trend should yield sunny conditions generally
north of I-20 by mid afternoon, with clearing commencing later in
the afternoon and evening farther south. Highs will struggle into
the lower and middle 50s in most areas, with readings closer to
60 across the southern tier of our counties.

The combination of clear skies and slackening winds will allow
temperatures to drop into the upper 20s across many areas west
through north of the Metroplex Friday morning. This will represent
the first definitive freeze for many areas of North Central
Texas. The only areas that will avoid the freezing mark will be
the urban core of the Metroplex and most of the areas along the
I-35 corridoe south of DFW. Indeed, just about anywhere in the
forecast area may see freezing conditions Friday morning, at least
in low-lying or otherwise sheltered locations. Will likely be
issuing a Freeze Watch for much of the area tomorrow, followed by
a Warning on Thursday. Precautions for tender plants, animals and
other items will be required by Friday morning.

Friday will represent a near carbon copy of Thursday,
temperature-wise, with most locations remaining in the 50s under a
cool, light northeast flow regime. The absence of stronger winds,
and a full day of sunshine will make it seem a bit warmer,
however. After chilly starts both Saturday and Sunday morning, the
weekend afternoons will feature continued sunny weather and
cooler than normal conditions, followed by a modest retrenchment
of high temperatures as we enter the first two days of the coming
week. The introduction of low level moisture and weak isentropic
lift late on Monday through Tuesday will enable the development of
patchy light rain across the southeastern zones Monday night into
Tuesday. Kept low PoPs in place for this portion of the forecast
area, though QPFs should remain very light.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Main Concerns...Gusty southwest winds on Wednesday with some
crosswind impacts possible. Northwest wind shift expected late
Wednesday afternoon with FROPA.

VFR and south winds below 10 knots will continue today. Wind
speeds will gradually increase to around 10-12 knots overnight.
MVFR ceilings may develop in portions of Central Texas late
tonight but will remain well south of the KACT terminal. Breezy
southwest winds are expected ahead of an approaching cold front
late Wednesday morning through the afternoon. Sustained wind
speeds will be around 12-15 knots with wind gusts as high as 25-30
knots, which may result in some crosswind impacts. A NW wind
shift with FROPA has been introduced to the extended DFW TAF at
23Z Wednesday. Dry frontal passage is expected, with no potential
for showers or storms.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    53  77  46  53  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                53  81  48  57  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               46  74  43  52  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              49  77  41  52  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            49  76  43  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              52  79  45  54  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             50  78  45  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           52  79  48  57  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              53  83  48  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       48  80  41  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$