499
FXUS64 KFWD 181043
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
543 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Temperatures will climb back above normal this weekend, but
   unlike the preceding weekends this month, it will be pleasant.

 - The warming trend will continue into next week with
   temperatures approaching 90 degrees by Tuesday.

 - A grass fire threat will persist into next week with continued
   rain-free conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Some low 40s across the eastern counties are the cool spots this
morning, with upper 50s across a few of the western-most counties
coming in as the warmer locations. A dry, seasonable and overall
pleasant day can be expected for the rest of today. The ongoing
forecast is in good shape with only minor grid adjustments needed
for this morning`s update.


30

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday/

An upper low currently digging south through the Great Basin will
become cut-off from the mean flow over the southern Rockies over
the next 24 hours, and remain positioned there through the
weekend. North and Central Texas will be sandwiched between the
low and a mid/upper ridge over the eastern CONUS, essentially a
complete 180 from the pattern a week ago. At the surface, a ridge
will be all but synced with its mid and upper level counterpart
while a trough lies in lee of the Rockies. The resulting return
flow has already been in place for a day, and should continue
through Saturday. A gradual warm-up will be the outcome, with
temperatures climbing from 5 to 7 degrees below normal Thursday,
to near normal today (Friday), to around 5 above normal on
Saturday. Winds will remain generally out of the southeast at 10
to 15 MPH. The best moisture return will actually be over the
western zones, where some scattered to broken clouds are possible,
but most of the region will continue with mostly sunny days and
clear nights.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 237 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/
/Saturday Night Through Late Next Week/

Little change to our weather pattern is expected through early
next week, allowing our slow warming trend to continue. On Monday,
the cutoff low over the Four Corners Region will be pulled to the
northeast before transitioning to an open wave as it moves into
the Upper Midwest. Unfortunately, this transition will allow upper
level ridging to become increasingly pronounced across North and
Central Texas, resulting in another rise in temperatures. High
temperatures will return to the mid 80s to low 90s areawide
Tuesday through Thursday - approximately 10-20 degrees above
normal for late October.

From mid-week onward, ensemble guidance is fairly evenly split
between either keeping us in a warm/dry regime or transitioning to
a cooler and perhaps more active pattern. For now, have opted not
to stray from the NBM, which advertises a continuation of warm
and rain-free weather, given the lack of confidence in either
solution.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Southeast surface winds of 6 to 12 kts this morning will increase
to 10 to 15 kts this afternoon. A dry and stable airmass will
otherwise provide VFR and overall tranquil aviation weather
through Saturday.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  56  78  56  79 /   0   5   0   0   0
Waco                81  54  82  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               76  47  76  47  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              78  51  79  49  81 /   0   5   0   0   0
McKinney            78  50  79  49  81 /   0   5   0   0   0
Dallas              79  55  80  55  82 /   0   5   0   0   0
Terrell             79  49  79  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           81  52  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              81  54  83  53  84 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       77  54  80  51  82 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$