Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
179 FXUS64 KFWD 152321 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 621 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry weather will continue through Friday. - A cold front will bring a chance of storms (30-50%) on Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown Saturday night and Sunday. - Warm and dry weather returns early next week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025/ /Through Thursday Night/ Much of the short-term period will remain under the influence of a persistent, unseasonably strong upper ridge of high pressure atop the region. Thus, expect warm afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s across North and Central Texas this afternoon beneath mostly sunny skies. Light east-northeast boundary layer winds and subtle cool air advection will keep temperatures this afternoon from getting too out of control. Later tonight, a deep, upper-level low will shift off the West Coast toward the Four Corners region. This change in the upper- level pattern will draw a preceding shortwave northward out of Mexico and over the state of Texas during the day Thursday. Little change in the observable weather conditions are expected Thursday with the passage of this wave save a notable increase in mid-level cloud cover late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night along and east of I-35. Although southeast low-level flow is expected to re- establish by mid-morning Thursday, delayed moisture return will keep the chance for any measurable precipitation through Thursday night near zero. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025/ /Friday and Beyond/ North and Central Texas will remain in between troughs on Friday with little notable weather expected minus a very low chance for some afternoon seabreeze activity across the Brazos Valley. A strengthening pressure gradient in the lee of the Rockies will increase winds out of the south by Friday afternoon beginning a period of slightly more robust moisture return ahead of the main trough axis still lingering out over the Desert Southwest. South winds at 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph would cause some concern for elevated fire weather conditions Friday afternoon, but higher humidity should temper the overall threat. However, some localized areas of elevated fire weather conditions may still arise west of Highway 281 where afternoon RH will likely fall below 35%. By Saturday, the aforementioned upper trough should be transitioning out from over the Intercontinental Mountain West and over the Central Plains. An attendant cold front should extend across northern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle by midday Saturday with a dryline extending south of a surface low over parts of the Big Country. These surface features will likely provide a focus for convective development later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, however the greatest synoptic-scale support and lift will reside across the Arklatex region and points northeastward into the Ozarks. Thunderstorm coverage across our forecast area will likely remain more isolated to scattered with the greatest rain chances (30-50%) constrained to locations east of I-35 in the best deep moisture/lift overlap. Unfortunately, most locations west of I-35 will likely miss out on any measurable rainfall during this event. Overall rainfall still remains uncertain with a wide range of solutions in the ensemble forecast. The NBM 25th-75th %tile spread ranges from a dry forecast to 0.75" east of I-35 through Sunday morning. Favorable shear and instability profiles may overlap for several hours Saturday evening into Saturday night northeast of the Metroplex, and we will need to monitor the potential for a couple strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. But again, it is uncertain how much storm coverage will materialize late Saturday across our forecast area and with medium-range guidance trending toward a slower, more northward-progressing system, widespread rain chances are looking less probable. Behind the frontal passage, breezy north winds will usher in a much drier and more seasonably cool airmass to end the weekend. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s along and north of I-20 Sunday afternoon and the low to mid 80s across Central Texas. Sunday and Monday morning will be notably cooler with widespread lows in the 50s. This period of normal, mid-October temperatures will be short-lived with the upper ridge quickly filling back in by Monday afternoon. There is some signal that the upper-level pattern will become more active and progressive by midweek next week, so stay tuned! Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Easterly winds (080-110) at 5-10 knots will become more southeasterly (120-150) at around 10 knots after 15Z Thursday. There is a very low chance (10%) of patchy MVFR ceilings moving into East and Central TX (KACT) between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. Probabilities and coverage remain far too low to include in TAFs at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period. Darrah && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 63 86 67 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 10 Waco 59 85 64 88 69 / 0 0 0 5 0 Paris 58 86 64 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 Denton 58 85 62 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 McKinney 58 86 64 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dallas 63 87 67 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 5 Terrell 58 87 62 88 68 / 0 0 0 5 5 Corsicana 61 88 65 88 72 / 0 0 0 5 5 Temple 58 86 62 88 68 / 0 0 0 5 0 Mineral Wells 57 87 62 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$