Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
408 FXUS64 KFWD 021814 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1214 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A brief warm-up is expected into Wednesday before another strong cold front Wednesday night brings cold temperatures and rain chances back to the region for the latter half of the work week. - Near-normal temperatures and mostly sunny conditions will return over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1215 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 South-southeast winds will return to North and Central Texas early this afternoon as surface ridging is shunted toward the east by pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies. This will begin a brief warming period into Wednesday. Expect mostly sunny skies with temperatures rising into the low to mid 50s this afternoon across much of the region. Temperatures will struggle to escape the 40s across parts of East and Northeast Texas where the onset of more notable warm-air advection will be delayed until later this evening. Expect temperatures to drop into the 30s across most of the forecast area tonight, with some patchy fog likely developing across parts of East Texas by early Wednesday morning. Surface winds will increase out of the south during the day Wednesday ahead of our next weather-making storm system with a slug of greater quality boundary-layer moisture and low clouds surging into Central Texas by midday. Cloud cover will keep afternoon highs in the mid 50s to low 60s east of I-35 Wednesday afternoon. West-southwest winds west of I-35 ahead of a cold front will nudge temperatures into the upper 60s (potentially low 70s) across parts of western North and Central Texas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1215 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 This brief warmup will come to an end as a cold front pushes through North and Central Texas from northwest to southeast Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Much cooler air will filter in behind the frontal passage with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30s along/north of I-20 and the upper 30s to mid 40s south of I-20 by sunrise Thursday morning. Increasing isentropic ascent atop of this frontal surface with the approach of a mid-level shortwave and persistent moist, southwesterly 925-700mb flow will lead to a blossoming of scattered light to moderate rain showers late Wednesday night into Thursday primarily along and south of the I-20 corridor. We are monitoring a brief window for a very light wintry mix across parts of northwest Texas and the Big Country (Cooke, Jack, Young, and Montague counties) around sunrise Thursday morning. Moisture/lift may overlap freezing surface temperatures for a few hours (4-8AM) across these counties. However, the latest guidance has come in a bit warmer and largely keeps this low end potential north of the Red River. So, although sleet/ice crystals/drizzle may still fall to the surface, no accumulations or impacts are expected. Temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to mid 40s during the afternoon on Thursday with rain chances largely coming to an end from west to east Thursday night as the aforementioned shortwave shifts northeast and drier air ushers in from the west. Temperatures will moderate Friday and Saturday as surface winds shift back out of the south. Another cold front is set to enter North Texas late in the weekend on Sunday, however this frontal passage is expected to be dry and weaker, only shaving a few degrees off of high temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period for all North and Central Texas terminals. Surface winds generally below 10 kts have turned back out of the south within the Metroplex and will make that same shift down at KACT in the next couple of hours. MVFR stratus will nudge into Central Texas late Wednesday morning potentially making a run for KACT toward the end of this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 37 62 38 44 / 0 0 10 40 Waco 37 65 44 48 / 0 0 20 50 Paris 30 57 38 45 / 0 0 10 30 Denton 34 61 34 42 / 0 0 10 30 McKinney 34 60 37 44 / 0 0 10 40 Dallas 37 63 40 46 / 0 0 10 40 Terrell 33 61 40 47 / 0 0 20 50 Corsicana 37 64 45 51 / 0 0 30 50 Temple 35 66 44 49 / 0 0 20 50 Mineral Wells 35 67 36 44 / 0 0 10 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Langfeld LONG TERM....Langfeld AVIATION...Langfeld