Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
205 FXUS64 KFWD 030557 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1157 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A brief warm-up is expected through Wednesday before another strong cold front arrives Wednesday night, bringing cold temperatures and rain chances back to the region for the latter half of the work week. - Near-normal temperatures and mostly sunny conditions will return over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1152 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Quiet but chilly weather is expected the remainder of the night. Temperatures will fall into the 30s across the region, and a light freeze is expected for portions of East Texas with lows in the low 30s. Southerly winds will strengthen later this morning as a surface low and its attendant cold front approach from the north/northwest. As a result, moisture will be pulled northward into North and Central Texas throughout the day. The cold front is slated to arrive in our northwestern zones late this afternoon, continuing through North Texas this evening, and Central Texas overnight. Rain chances will increase across Central Texas late this evening in advance of the front`s arrival. The lightning potential will be low, but isolated thunderstorms will be possible across our southern zones with this activity. The arrival of a shortwave trough late Wednesday night into Thursday morning will result in strengthening isentropic ascent overnight. This will allow additional showers to blossom throughout the night and expand northward into North Texas heading into early Thursday morning. Some drizzle will be possible across western North Texas/the Big Country early Thursday morning, but latest hi-res guidance continues to trend warmer. As a result, any mention of freezing drizzle has been removed from the forecast. If temperatures are able to dip to near or just below freezing in any areas, this could result in very localized occurrences of freezing drizzle. However, any drizzle is expected to transition to rain around sunrise Thursday morning, and no impacts would be expected. Scattered rain showers will continue across the region throughout the day Thursday, with cold temperatures in the 40s to low 50s and a brisk north wind around 10-20 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1152 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Rain chances will begin to taper off Thursday night, but isolated to scattered showers will linger across Central and East Texas through the overnight hours. Another chilly night is expected, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s to 30s across the region. Skies should see some clearing on Friday, with any lingering rain chances in Central Texas expected to end during the afternoon. A cool day can be expected, with afternoon highs in the low 50s to low 60s. Temperatures will continue to moderate as we head into the weekend, with highs in the 50s/60s expected both Saturday and Sunday. A weak cold front is slated to arrive on Sunday, which will move through the area rain-free. Temperatures will only be a few degrees cooler behind the front as we head into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1152 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR conditions will continue tonight and Wednesday, with southerly winds around 10 knots. Winds will increase to 10-15 knots for a few hours later this morning (15-19Z). A cold front will move through the region this evening (01-02Z for the Metroplex, ~04Z for KACT), bringing a north wind shift behind the front. Wind speeds will remain around 5-7 knots immediately following FROPA, but will increase to 10-15 knots after 06Z Wednesday night. MVFR stratus will develop at all terminals behind the front along with scattered showers/patchy drizzle. IFR stratus may develop at KACT, most likely after 06Z if it does occur. KACT could see showers or drizzle develop as early as 02-03Z, but most of this activity will remain east of the terminal, so any mention of precip has been omitted from the TAF at this time. Rain chances will increase for all terminals after 12Z Thursday as scattered showers blossom across the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 50 37 62 38 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 52 37 65 44 / 0 0 0 20 Paris 49 30 57 38 / 0 0 0 10 Denton 50 34 61 34 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 50 34 60 37 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 50 37 63 40 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 52 33 61 40 / 0 0 0 20 Corsicana 49 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 30 Temple 53 35 66 44 / 0 0 0 20 Mineral Wells 53 35 67 36 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...Barnes