422
FXUS64 KFWD 072323
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
623 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant damaging wind event is becoming more likely Sunday
  evening and Sunday night across North Texas as a complex of
  storms races through the region. Widespread severe weather is
  expected.

- Hot and humid conditions will continue this weekend with heat
  index values up to 105 on Sunday.

- Periodic storm chances will continue through the upcoming week
  with near or below normal temperatures. Severe storms will be
  possible Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop near the
TX/OK border later this evening in the vicinity of a low-level
confluent axis and strengthening warm advection. However, a
nocturnal increase in MLCIN may limit coverage and intensity of
these cells tonight, unless one or more elevated supercells can
become established. Hail and strong wind gusts would be the
primary threats with any more robust thunderstorm activity
overnight, and storms should largely remain north of I-20 and
east of I-35. The main time window for more widespread severe
weather will still be Sunday evening/night as covered in the
previous discussions below.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Today through Sunday Afternoon/

An outflow boundary made its way into North Texas earlier this
morning and should stall near the I-20 corridor this afternoon.
Diurnal destabilization will allow for some scattered showers and
storms near both the boundary and a quasi-stationary cold front
north of the Red River. There will be enough instability and deep
layer shear to promote strong to severe storms, with a hail and
wind threat. The tornado threat will remain low as the low-level
wind field are not very supportive of tornadogenesis. The caveat
to this is the lack of large-scale lift, which will limit overall
coverage. The best chances for any overnight precipitation will be
confined to near the Red River and our northeastern counties. Any
lingering activity will dissipate later Sunday morning as the
upper-level shortwave moves off to our east.

North and Central Texas will observe hot and humid conditions
today and tomorrow, with afternoon highs reaching the low-mid 90s.
60-70+ degree dewpoints will push heat index values up to around
105 both today and tomorrow. Our Heat Advisory criteria is high
temperatures of 103+ or heat indices of 105+ for two consecutive
days. There may be a few areas that reach the heat index criteria
today and/or Sunday, but it will be very spotty and isolated in
nature. As such, we will continue to forego any heat headlines.
Nonetheless, make sure to drink plenty of water, and avoid excess
time outdoors in the heat of the afternoon.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 238 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025/
/Sunday Night Onward/

To kick off the new work week, North and Central Texas will be
under the influence of northwesterly flow aloft. Another
shortwave disturbance will move across the Southern Plains Sunday
through Monday, spreading increased lift across an unstable
airmass. Showers and storms are expected to develop mid-late
Sunday afternoon up in the TX/OK Panhandles and western Oklahoma,
moving southeast through the rest of the day. Initially discrete,
storms will have grown upscale into a substantial MCS by the time
it reaches our northwestern counties later in the evening.
Abundant instability between 3000- 4000 J/kg, deep layer shear
around 40-50 KT, and 8 deg/C lapse rates across North Texas will
allow the storms to thrive and maintain intensity as they advance
into North and Central Texas. Damaging wind gusts of 80+ MPH,
large hail, and spin-up QLCS tornadoes will all be possible.
Confidence on a significant wind event late Sunday into Monday is
increasing, however there is still some uncertainty regarding the
exact timing. As of this forecast issuance, the line is expected
to reach our northwest counties around 8-9 PM, the DFW
Metroplex/I-20 corridor between 10 PM - 12AM, and push into East
Texas closer to 1 AM. Additionally, there is uncertainty of the
southward extent of the line into SE Central Texas. This would
have implications on the location of the severe threat in Central
Texas. Ultimately we`ll have to wait until tomorrow afternoon when
storms initially develop to glean more defined timing and the
expected system movement. Make sure to stay updated with the
forecast tomorrow, and have multiple ways to receive warnings.

A resulting outflow boundary from Sunday night`s activity looks
to stall across Central Texas on Monday. This will provide a more
focused area for convective development over the first couple days
of the upcoming week. Daily storm chances will prevail through
the end of the week as multiple disturbances move across the
Southern Plains. Highest rainfall chances for next week will be
Wednesday- Thursday as a shortwave amplifies into a closed low
and swings across West Texas and Oklahoma. Strong to severe storms
will be possible during this period, though the deep layer shear
looks to be marginal at best and may inhibit a more widespread
severe threat. We`ll have more specific details like timing as we
get closer to the event.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Convective impacts are the main focus through the TAF period,
with isolated storms in parts of North Texas later tonight
followed by widespread thunderstorm activity on Sunday evening.
Outside of these time periods, VFR and south winds around 10 kts
will prevail.

During the next few hours, isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop near the TX/OK border, which may have a tendency to build
southward with time. A brief period of VCTS has been introduced
beginning at 06z for DFW/DAL airports only, with low confidence in
convection actually spreading as far south as the D10 TAF sites.
This activity should quickly shift eastward overnight into early
Sunday morning. Much more widespread thunderstorm activity in the
form of one or more complexes will spill into North Texas from the
northwest on Sunday evening. This will result in several hours of
convective impacts to the North Texas TAF sites, with damaging
winds and hail also possibly accompanying these storms. This has
been introduced into the extended portion of the DFW TAF.
Confidence in this timing remains low, and TSRA could be adjusted
forward or backward by a couple of hours with subsequent forecast
issuances depending on trends in guidance.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  96  70  85  72 /  20  10  80  40  50
Waco                75  95  71  90  72 /   5   0  40  20  60
Paris               70  90  67  83  67 /  60  10  90  50  20
Denton              72  94  67  83  67 /  30  20  90  40  50
McKinney            73  93  68  83  69 /  30  10  90  40  40
Dallas              75  97  71  86  71 /  20  10  80  40  50
Terrell             74  93  70  84  69 /  20  10  80  40  50
Corsicana           77  94  73  87  72 /   5   5  60  30  60
Temple              75  97  73  92  72 /   0   0  20  20  50
Mineral Wells       73  96  68  84  68 /  20  10  80  40  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$