Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
127 FXUS64 KFWD 251049 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 549 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will continue through next week. - Rain chances return this afternoon and will continue through the weekend, with the greatest chances (40-60%) across the Brazos Valley Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ /Through Saturday/ Seasonably hot and increasingly humid weather will be in store for today as an easterly wave drifts across portions of South and Southeast Texas. This will funnel greater moisture content northwestward into parts of North and East Texas, with dewpoints unlikely to mix into the 60s across our eastern zones this afternoon. While this increasing moisture content will result in greater cloud cover, the combination of heat and higher humidity will allow heat index values to climb into the 105-108 range roughly near/east of the I-35/45 corridor this afternoon where a Heat Advisory remains in effect. The combination of increased moisture and lift from the slow- moving disturbance in weak easterly flow aloft will also be sufficient to support diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of East and Southeast Texas. Development should be aided further by the seabreeze as it advances inland later this afternoon. PoPs of 20-30% will be advertised east of I-35 and south of I-20, although it is possible that a well-organized seabreeze could push convective activity even farther northwest than that by this evening. Some gusty winds could accompany these cells along with brief heavy downpours, but no severe weather is expected. The mid-level ridge axis will retreat northward on Saturday which should allow for greater shower and thunderstorm coverage during the afternoon. PoPs once again will be highest across Central Texas and the Brazos Valley, which will contain the highest PW values and greatest forcing for ascent. The presence of convective activity/outflows along with increased cloud cover casts some uncertainty as to whether a continuation of the entire Heat Advisory will be necessary for Saturday. It is possible that only our far north/northeastern zones may meet criteria as they will be farther displaced from rain chances and should also experience less cloud cover. Will hold off on extending this product into Saturday for now, with the idea that it could be reduced slightly in area for the following day or two. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ /Sunday Onward/ The mid-level ridge axis will become repositioned to our east late in the weekend, before expanding across most of the Southern Plains heading into the workweek. Until then, our forecast area will remain in a relative weakness aloft as the easterly wave responsible for convective activity in the short term drifts northwestward along the periphery of the ridge. This should allow for additional isolated shower and thunderstorm activity on Sunday afternoon with coverage of only about 10% or less. We`ll carry broad low PoPs across most of the area to advertise this minimal potential, but most locations should expect to remain dry on Sunday. The presence of lingering cloud cover will likely hold highs in the mid/upper 90s, and only a smattering of locations may meet or exceed Heat Advisory criteria. A return to hotter temps and rain-free weather is forecast for the first half of next week as the ridge expands and strengthens. Triple-digit highs should become increasingly prevalent, although aggressive mixing of dewpoints into the 60s and even 50s should limit heat index values to near or below 105 for all but some of our East Texas zones. Some rain chances could return towards the end of the workweek as the mid-level ridge retrogrades to the northwest. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail through the period with SSE winds around 10 kts. There will be an increase in convection southeast of the TAF sites this afternoon, and there is a small chance (less than 20%) that an isolated shower or storm could advance towards Waco or even eastern D10 airports by mid/late afternoon. However, the low probability of occurrence does not warrant a mention in the TAFs at this time. Diurnal cumulus near 5 kft and a SCT/BKN cirrus canopy will be present through the forecast period. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 79 95 78 96 / 0 0 10 10 20 Waco 97 77 91 77 94 / 10 5 30 10 20 Paris 96 76 91 75 94 / 5 5 30 20 20 Denton 100 78 96 77 96 / 0 0 10 10 20 McKinney 99 77 94 77 95 / 5 0 20 20 20 Dallas 99 79 96 78 97 / 5 0 20 10 20 Terrell 98 76 94 76 95 / 20 10 30 20 20 Corsicana 99 78 94 77 96 / 20 20 40 20 20 Temple 98 76 92 76 94 / 10 5 30 10 20 Mineral Wells 102 75 98 76 97 / 0 0 5 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 116>123-134-135-146>148-162. && $$