Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
029 FXUS64 KFWD 111750 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1150 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low humidity and gusty south-southwesterly winds will lead to an elevated fire weather threat across all of North and Central Texas through this evening. - A warming trend will occur through the rest of the workweek with afternoon highs returning to the 70s and 80s. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 A shortwave disturbance moving overtop the Southern Plains has induced a lee-side surface low just east of the Rockies. This low will gradually spread E-ESE into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this afternoon, tightening the surface pressure gradient across North and Central Texas. The end result of this will be a breezy day with increased winds around 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30-35 mph expected. Our latest dry spell has allowed cured fuels to increased across the region, and coupled with low humidity between 15-25% expected this afternoon, will continue to promote at least an elevated wild fire threat. The aforementioned breezy winds will further complicate the fire weather threat as any fire start will have a higher rate of spread this afternoon. Make sure to avoid any outdoor activity that could start wildfires! Gusty winds will quickly decrease this evening as the boundary layer becomes decoupled. Outside of the fire weather concern and breezy winds, the forecast will remain quiet and dry as we head into midweek. This afternoon will be much warmer than yesterday, with afternoon highs expected to peak in the 60s and 70s underneath southerly winds and full sun. A low-level ridge will become established to our southeast by midweek, allowing for more efficient moisture transport into the region. This will increase the afternoon humidity and lower the fire weather threat for tomorrow. Continued southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will push Wednesday afternoon highs into the 70s and low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 The rest of the week will be warm for mid-November standards as ridging remains the main influence in our weather pattern. This will not be the case this weekend, however, as a pattern shift is expected. Increased moisture will continue to be pumped into the region as we remain on the western periphery of the ridge. To our west, a closed upper low is progged to move eastward into the Desert Southwest by the end of the weekend, swinging northeast across the Plains as we go into the beginning of next week. Lift from the system and moisture out ahead will promote increased rain chances towards the end of the weekend into next week. There is still uncertainty with regards to location of best rain chances, as long-range models are in conflict in regards to the location of the upper low. Looking a bit deeper into the individual ensemble members, there is a good signal for some precipitation beginning this weekend. All this being said, there is continued potential for rainfall towards the end of the forecast period, but there is still uncertainty on both locations of best chances and any stronger storm potential. Bottom line - continue to keep an eye on the forecast as future updates will hold more specific details. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Gusty south winds will persist through this afternoon at all TAF sites, with gusts to near 30 kts expected. After sunset speeds and gusts will quickly diminish, with overnight speeds further dropping below 10 kts. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through this TAF cycle with nice flying conditions expected through tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 50 76 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 51 78 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 46 74 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 44 74 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 47 74 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 51 77 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 49 77 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 53 79 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 49 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 44 80 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater