Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
510 FXUS64 KFWD 141757 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1257 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s. - There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms on a daily basis beginning Wednesday and continuing through next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday/ Benign weather will continue through Monday. Showers and storms tied to a shortwave trough in West Texas have remained outside of the area this morning. However, there is a low potential (20% chance) some of this activity could skirt portions of the Big Country this afternoon. Otherwise, rain-free weather will continue through the period for most areas, with temperatures remaining a few degrees above normal. Afternoon highs will peak in the low to mid 90s today and tomorrow with morning lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Subsidence will see a subtle increase tonight into Monday as the upper level ridge axis attempts to build back into the region. This will keep most locations rain-free again on Monday, despite another low potential (20% chance) for isolated showers or storms in the Big Country as another weak shortwave moves across the region. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Monday Night Onward/ Following another quiet day on Tuesday, the upper level ridge will shift further west once again heading into the mid-week time period, placing us beneath intermittent north/northwest flow aloft for the remainder of the forecast period. A series of shortwave troughs will swing around the base of an upper level low centered near the Midwest/Great Lakes region, bringing periodic rain chances to North and Central Texas Wednesday onward as these disturbances skirt the area. Temperatures will trend closer to average values during this time period (though still slightly above normal), with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s Thursday through the weekend. We`ll have to monitor the potential for any of these upper level disturbances to be accompanied by a cold front, especially late next weekend into early next week. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites, with SCT to BKN cirrus expected for much of the period. Winds will vary from southeast to southwest but will generally remain near 10 knots or less, outside of a few stronger gusts between 15 to 25 knots this afternoon. Barnes && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 74 93 73 93 / 0 5 5 0 5 Waco 92 72 92 70 92 / 0 0 5 0 0 Paris 91 69 92 68 93 / 0 0 5 0 5 Denton 94 70 93 69 93 / 0 5 5 0 5 McKinney 93 71 93 70 93 / 0 5 5 0 5 Dallas 94 75 94 74 94 / 0 0 5 0 5 Terrell 92 70 92 70 92 / 0 0 5 0 5 Corsicana 94 73 93 71 93 / 0 0 5 0 0 Temple 93 70 91 68 91 / 0 0 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 94 69 93 68 93 / 0 5 10 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$