993
FXUS64 KFWD 212356
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
556 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather will remain in place through the end of the
  work week.

- Above normal temperatures return this weekend with dry weather
  expected.

- Low rain chances return next Wednesday, but it`s too soon to
  know specific details about Thanksgiving Day itself.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening through Saturday Morning/

A weak cold front will continue to move south over the rest of
this evening, eventually moving south of the Red River and through
North Texas tonight. With meager CAA behind the front, the
biggest proof of FROPA will be the return of northerly winds.
Post-frontal surface high pressure will quickly move south towards
the Red River overnight, helping to keep winds light and skies
clear. Hence, another night of efficient radiational cooling is
expected across the region, with Friday morning lows bottoming out
in the mid 30s to low 40s. While the majority of the region will
remain above 32 degrees, the usual low-lying and rural spots may
approach or drop slightly below freezing.

The front will bisect North and Central Texas by tomorrow
afternoon, with slightly cooler temperatures to the northeast
behind the front. Expect highs ranging from the low 60s in the
northeast to the upper 60s/low 70s in western Central Texas. S-SE
winds will are progged to eventually return to the region late
tomorrow afternoon and into the night as the aforementioned
surface high slides eastward into Louisiana. slightly warmer
overnight lows are expected in response, with temperatures
dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1246 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024/
Update:

Little changes have been made to the long term forecast after
updating it with the latest data. This weekend will be warm and
breezy ahead of Monday`s cold front. A low pressure system and its
attendant cold front will move across the region Wednesday or
Thursday and bring low rain chances to the eastern half of our
area. It`s more likely than not (60% chance) that the cold front
will move through Wednesday night with Thanksgiving Day being cool
and breezy with increasing sunshine late in the day. If the front
does not move through (40%), Thanksgiving Day will be mild and
cloudy. Both solutions do keep a majority of the precipitation
north and east of our forecast area.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion:
/Friday Night Through Mid Next Week/

After a few days of below to near seasonal temperatures, a
warming trend will take place over the weekend. Daytime highs
will easily reach the upper 70s to low 80s by Sunday. Dry weather
will also continue, but another system is forecast to arrive
early next week. Not only this will this bring cooler weather,
but also bring low rain chances for portions of the region during
the mid-late week period.

The forecast for the weekend remains on track with a weakening
ridge/zonal flow aloft and a surface high pressure to our east.
Southerly winds will become established Friday night into
Saturday, with breezy conditions on Sunday. With that in mind, it
will be a good idea to secure any outdoor decorations given the
wind gusts could reach 25-30 mph during the day.

The next cold front is expected to arrive on Monday, bringing us
back to more seasonal temperatures. Daytime highs on Tuesday are
forecast to stay in the 60s across North TX and upper 60s to low
70s in Central TX. This front will be dry, but rain chances are
still looking to return on Wednesday for some of our eastern
counties. A little over half of the guidance is showing a large
scale trough over the central U.S during the mid-late week period
along with a another strong cold front moving south. While this
could represent cooler weather on Thanksgiving Day, uncertainty
remains high on the potential for rain in some locations. The
good news is that this scenario also keeps the most widespread
activity to our east. Keep checking back for updates!

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Light W-NW winds at the TAF sites will gradually veer more
northerly over the next several hours in response to an incoming
weak cold front. This shift is expected around 03Z at D10 and
closer to 08Z at ACT. Northerly winds with speeds around 5 kts or
less will stick around through tomorrow morning and afternoon,
before shifting to the E-ESE late tomorrow afternoon around 23Z
in response to the movement of surface high pressure to our east.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail with occasional scattered high clouds
tomorrow morning and afternoon.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    43  64  45  72  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                39  68  41  74  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               35  61  38  68  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              34  64  40  72  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            36  63  40  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              41  64  43  72  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             37  64  40  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           41  66  43  73  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              37  71  41  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       36  67  40  76  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$