203
FXUS64 KFWD 081841
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1241 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening
   with threats for hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.

-  Additional heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches with isolated 3 inch
   amounts are possible through tonight, especially across the
   northwest where a Flood Watch is in effect.

-  Dry and mild weather is expected the first part of next week,
   but low rain chances return on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
A potent area of low pressure continues to gradually shift
eastward from the Four Corners, spreading broad forcing for ascent
throughout the region. The most recent surface analysis also
depicts a deepening surface low, centered around the Wichita
Falls area slowly moving off to the northeast. This deepening area
of low pressure is leading to a northward mass response ahead of
an eastward moving cold front. Dew points are now in the upper 60s
to lower 70s as a warm-front gradually slides northward across
the region. As of noon, the greatest instability continues to be
along and south of the warm front which extends from the Wichita
Falls area, toward the DFW Metroplex and continues to the
southeast to near Palestine. The northward migration of the front
will expand the area of highest instability as we go through the
rest of today.

The severe weather threat will increase as we head into the mid-
afternoon hours as instability is expected to peak between 1500 to
2000 J/kg. There are some questions as to whether the dense cloud
cover will limit overall instability and keep thunderstorms from
reaching their full potential. Nonetheless, given the unstable
atmosphere and deep-layer shear near 50 knots, the ingredients
for severe weather will be present. The main hazards this
afternoon will be large hail and damaging winds. There will be a
more localized tornado threat along the warm-front as updrafts
encounter a higher low-level shear axis.

The Flood Watch will also continue through the evening as the
line of storms moves over areas that experienced between 5-8
inches of rain last night. Additional rainfall amounts within the
watch will likely average between 1-2 inches with isolated 3 inch
amounts. Any additional heavy rain is likely to quickly runoff
and Flash Flooding would occur quickly.

Another area of heavy rain is likely to materialize late this
afternoon and evening east of I-35 where 2-3 inches of rain are
expected. This area has not seen as much rain over the last week,
therefore, runoff will be much slower to occur. The flash
flooding threat in this area will remain low compared to areas
within the watch. However, minor flooding, especially in those
areas that typically flood, will still be possible.

The eastward moving front will push the strongest storms east
of our region by midnight. A few lingering showers and isolated
storms will be possible through the night across Central Texas.
Any overnight storms should remain sub-severe given the greatest
instability will have moved east.

By sunrise tomorrow, westerly to northwesterly winds are expected
with afternoon temperatures remaining in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Mostly clear skies will prevail with no additional rainfall
expected this weekend.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Onward/

Once the system responsible for today`s inclement weather moves
away from our region, clear to mostly clear skies will prevail
through the first half of the week. High temperatures Sunday
through Tuesday will top out in the mid to upper 70s with early
morning temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Our next chance of rain will be arriving Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a shortwave and attendant cold front move through the
region. Given a lack of moisture, rain chances will be minimal and
mainly confined to far northeast Texas. At this time, rain chances
remain below 20%.

Behind the mid-week front, temperatures will be in the 60s to
lower 70s on Thursday with a gradual warm-up through next
weekend. High pressure will gradually build across the Mexican
Desert, shunting rain chances away from North and Central Texas
through most of the week.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

LIFR to IFR conditions continue throughout much of North and
Central Texas. The unsettled weather pattern will lead to showers
the first half of the afternoon. By 21Z, storm chances will
increase along the I-35 corridor. Some of these storms could be
severe with large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado.

The highest storm chances will be along an eastward moving cold
front expected to move across North and Central Texas TAF sites
around 00Z. Visibility restrictions are likely as the heaviest
storms move through. Behind the line of storms, a wind shift will
occur with winds out of the west/northwest. A few showers may
linger through tonight before dry air ends rain chances across the
region.

Beyond sunrise tomorrow, westerly/northwesterly winds will
continue with VFR skies expected. Wind speeds will remain between
5 to 10 knots, therefore, no crosswind concerns are expected.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  52  70  54  75 /  70  90   0   5   0
Waco                80  51  71  53  76 /  80  70   0   5   5
Paris               68  57  70  50  73 /  80  80  20  10   5
Denton              72  46  70  47  76 /  80  90   0   5   0
McKinney            70  50  71  49  75 /  70  90   0   5   0
Dallas              74  52  71  53  75 /  70  90   0   5   0
Terrell             74  54  71  52  76 /  50  80   5  10   5
Corsicana           76  57  73  55  77 /  50  90   5  10   5
Temple              80  52  74  52  79 /  70  60   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       76  44  71  46  75 /  90  50   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM CST this evening for TXZ091-092-100>102-
115>117-129.

&&

$$