Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
348 FXUS64 KFWD 052347 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 647 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of North Texas, as afternoon heat index values reach upwards of 105-108. - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected across much of North and Central Texas through next week. - Isolated thunderstorms (10-30% chance) will develop across the Brazos Valley each afternoon and evening this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 North and Central Texas are now beneath a building mid-level ridge that spans across from the northern to the southern Plains. This will keep most locations hot and rain-free through the remainder of the weekend. For the rest of today, temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to around 103 across much of North Texas, while Central Texas will remain a few degrees cooler due to lingering moisture and slightly higher cloud cover. Afternoon mixing will keep much of the region below Heat Advisory criteria. The exception is across our far northeastern counties, where a Heat Advisory is now in effect. With the ridge continuing to expand tomorrow, widespread triple digit heat can be expected across North Texas with upper 90s elsewhere. Deeper moisture across the eastern half of North Texas will have a hard time mixing out tomorrow afternoon, driving heat index values between 102-107 degrees. Due to the widespread nature of 105+ heat index values along and east of US-287 in North Texas, a Heat Advisory will go into effect noon Sunday and persist through at least 7pm. A subtle shortwave is now moving east out of southern Louisiana and is expected to mainly remain south of our region. Scattered showers have developed to our southeast and will continue to move west through the rest of the afternoon. There will be a 20-40% chance of showers and storms across the Brazos Valley as this activity progresses east. The shortwave will exit the region tonight, however, a few additional showers and storms cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon. Tomorrow`s activity will largely be driven by an abundance of moisture and warm temperatures with no concentrated forcing for ascent. Therefore, rain chances will remain lower than today and confined to Central Texas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 The ridge will continue to expand next week, shutting off precipitation chances across the region. Temperatures will continue to be above normal with nearly the entire region between 99-102 degrees. Additionally, thanks to slightly better moisture, widespread heat index values between 105-110 degrees can be expected. Additional heat headlines are likely to persist through much of next week. The persistent hot and dry weather will continue to promote fire starts given an ignition source. Afternoon relative humidity will range from the upper 20% to around 40%, with the lower readings expected along and west of I-35. Winds are expected to remain below 10 mph, which will help mitigate the risk for rapid fire spread. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the period, with no significant aviation concerns. Showers and thunderstorms are dissipating across the region. Another round of convection will develop across Central/Southeast Texas on Sunday. There will be a low (10%) chance some of this activity will approach the KACT terminal during the afternoon. Otherwise, south to southeast winds will generally prevail through the period. However, light and variable winds are expected after 06Z tonight through 16-18Z tomorrow. Winds may briefly be more easterly as wind speeds increase to around 8 to 10 knots tomorrow afternoon but will resume a southeasterly direction rather quickly. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 100 80 101 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 75 99 76 99 / 10 10 0 0 Paris 75 100 76 101 / 0 10 0 10 Denton 76 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 76 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 80 102 81 102 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 74 100 76 101 / 0 10 0 0 Corsicana 75 99 76 100 / 20 10 0 10 Temple 74 98 74 99 / 10 20 0 10 Mineral Wells 73 101 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ091>093- 102>104-118>123-133>135-146. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ094-095-105>107. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Barnes