Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
521 FXUS64 KFWD 092318 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 518 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will continue through the week with a couple of chances for rain on Tuesday and again late Friday into next weekend. - Above normal temperatures and low humidity west of I-35 will continue to support a grass fire threat through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1204 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 High cloud cover continues to stream across North Texas this afternoon ahead of a slow moving upper low across the Baja peninsula. This system will eject northeast tonight with large scale forcing for ascent overspreading North Texas ahead of a cold front. Moisture return has been modest with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 50s now spreading into our southeast counties, but aircraft soundings indicate a large layer of dry air beneath the current cloud deck. South-southwest winds above the surface will increasingly veer through the late evening which is unlikely to result in deeper moisture making it too far north. This will be a limiting factor in more widespread rainfall potential across the region on Tuesday. As the upper trough gets closer Tuesday, we`ll likely see at least some light scattered showers spreading out of the Big Country and into our far western counties through the afternoon. Greater precipitation chances will arrive later in the evening as a cold front spreads south and isentropic ascent becomes maximized north of I-20. We`ll maintain 20-50% coverage of showers, but overall rainfall amounts are still expected to be light with most areas picking up 1/4 inch or less. Some weak elevated instability may result in some heavier rainfall rates, but overall amounts should be on the lighter side. Temperatures will continue to be well above normal with overnight lows near 60 tonight and highs on Tuesday in the mid 70s. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1204 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Scattered showers will continue Tuesday night as the upper trough moves to the east. Cooler and slightly drier air will spread south behind the front with rain chances ending overnight Tuesday night. Wednesday will see slightly cooler highs in the 60s but a quick warmup is expected Thursday and Friday with highs back in the upper 70s and lower 80s. A stronger upper trough will approach the Southern Plains during the latter part of the week into the weekend. This system looks like it will have much better moisture quality ahead of it and should result in more widespread rainfall across the region Friday into early Saturday. Wind fields will be stronger as well and we`ll likely have a little instability to work with which should support a little deeper convection and heavier rainfall rates. PoPs during this time will be 60-80% and we`ll continue to refine the timing over the coming days. Dunn && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 501 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 VFR will prevail through the period while a canopy of mid/high cloud cover thickens overhead. Cigs at 10-12 kft will be commonplace overnight into Tuesday, but low-level MVFR stratus is expected to remain southeast of the airports through the duration of this forecast cycle. Tomorrow afternoon, a slow-moving cold front will push through DFW area airports, resulting in a shift from SSW winds at 10-15 kts to NW winds around 10 kts. This gradual wind shift should transpire between 22-00z for Metroplex TAF sites, but will not occur at Waco until beyond 00z. Any rain chances associated with light precipitation falling from the mid- cloud deck will also hold off until after 00z, although some virga is likely to be observed tomorrow afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 77 51 67 / 0 10 30 10 Waco 59 76 54 72 / 0 10 20 10 Paris 60 76 53 69 / 0 10 30 10 Denton 57 76 45 67 / 0 10 40 10 McKinney 59 76 49 67 / 0 10 30 10 Dallas 61 77 53 70 / 0 10 30 10 Terrell 59 77 51 70 / 0 10 20 10 Corsicana 61 79 56 73 / 0 10 20 10 Temple 57 76 52 72 / 0 0 20 10 Mineral Wells 55 78 46 67 / 0 10 40 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dunn LONG TERM....Dunn AVIATION...Stalley