888
FXUS64 KFWD 052308
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
608 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stray storm or two will be possible (20%) late tonight for
  portions of north-central Texas.

- Hot and muggy conditions are expected heading into this weekend,
  with low storm chances (15-20%) near the Red River Friday night
  into Saturday.

- An unsettled pattern returns to the region beginning Saturday
  night, with daily chances (40-60%) for thunderstorms through
  next week. Some storms could be strong to severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Night/

...Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms extending from west Texas into central
Oklahoma will continue to move east during the overnight hours
tonight. In lieu of persistent forcing for ascent and low-level
convergence, these storms should weaken as they approach our area
from the west. As such, there will be a low chance (20-25%) for a
stray shower or thunderstorm to make its way into our area after
midnight tonight, primarily west of US-281 and/or north of US-380.
With MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg, any storm that can last into our area
still has the potential to be on the stronger side with small
hail and gusty winds. Though severe weather appears unlikely at
this time (<5% chance), an isolated instance of large hail or
damaging winds cannot be ruled out.

...Friday and Friday Night...

Isolated thunderstorms (20-30% chance) may still linger
near the Red River during the morning hours, but should clear by
noon. Though severe weather is not expected, these storms may
produce gusty winds and small hail.

A warm and muggy airmass will remain in place across the region
for Friday. Highs in the low 90s with afternoon dewpoints in the
upper 60s/low 70s will yield peak heat indices of 95 to 104
degrees. Heading into the overnight hours, low rain chances
(15-20%) return to the Red River valley as an overnight complex of
storms in Oklahoma may barely clip the far northern side of our
region. Again, though severe weather is not expected, gusty winds
and small hail will be possible with any storm that is able to
make its way into this area.

Darrah

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 130 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025/
/Friday Night Onward/

Hot and humid weather will continue into the weekend. MCSs will
develop on a daily basis and will have the potential to skirt
North Texas each night. While most of the MCS activity will
remain north of the Red River Friday night, there will be better
chances for storms in the forecast area Saturday night and
especially Sunday night. Some of these storms will have the
potential to be severe, with damaging winds and hail expected to
be the main threats.

A cold front will slide into the region on Monday but will become
stationary through the middle of the week. The frontal boundary
will serve as a focus for the development of additional showers
and storms on a daily basis through mid to late next week.
Fortunately, the rain chances will keep temperatures slightly
below normal with highs in the 80s and morning lows in the mid 60s
to low 70s.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z Friday through 06Z Saturday/

A scattered to broken deck of MVFR stratus is expected to develop
across central and eastern Texas tonight after 06Z. Coverage will
be greatest across central Texas where a BKN MVFR FM group has
been included in the KACT TAF. There is a low chance (30-40%) of
these MVFR cigs making their way into the metroplex sometime
between 12Z and 17Z Friday, primarily the south and east side
(KGKY and KDAL), but probabilities remain too low to include in
TAFs.

Darrah

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  92  76  94  74 /   5   5   0   5  30
Waco                75  91  74  93  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               74  88  74  90  70 /  20  20   5  20  50
Denton              75  92  74  94  71 /  10  10   0   5  30
McKinney            75  91  75  92  73 /  10  20   0   5  40
Dallas              77  93  77  95  75 /   5   5   0   5  30
Terrell             75  89  74  92  74 /   5   5   0   5  30
Corsicana           76  89  75  93  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
Temple              75  92  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  92  73  95  72 /  10   0   0   0  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$