826
FXUS64 KFWD 040538
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1238 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward
  through North and Central Texas overnight into Wednesday morning.
  Some severe storms are possible with damaging winds and large
  hail being the main threats.

- Low storm chances are expected the rest of the week and weekend,
  with the best chances in North Texas. Temperatures will be near
  to slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Night/

A predominantly linear convective complex continues to move
southeastward through the forecast area as of midnight,
accompanied by marginally severe hail/wind threats as well as
localized flooding due to very heavy rainfall. Central Texas
possess the main strong/severe risk for the next 4-6 hours where
50-60 mph wind gusts could accompany more robust convection with
hail occasionally approaching 1" in diameter. There is also a low
chance for brief spin-up tornadoes within the line, but largely
unfavorable low-level shear vector orientation should limit this
potential. The main threat may actually transition to flooding in
the next few hours as the line slows and convection trains.
Impressive rainfall rates of as much as 2.5 inches per hour have
already been observed in portions of Denton, Collin, and Dallas
counties where Flash Flooding is ongoing. Most of this activity
should be exiting the CWA to the southeast around daybreak, and
likely will not contain much, if any, severe threat by that time
period.

The cold front responsible for this round of thunderstorms will
also move through the rest of the area in the morning, with post-
frontal stratus lingering through much of the day.
Broken/overcast skies combined with the slightly cooler post-
frontal airmass will hold highs in the upper 70s and 80s with
light northerly winds. This boundary will stall through parts of
Central/East Texas, and weak low-level convergence along it
should result in additional isolated showers and thunderstorms
during the daytime tomorrow. This activity would not be strong or
severe, and most convection is expected to remain east/southeast
of the CWA. Winds will return to the ESE overnight as the frontal
boundary quickly washes out, and additional fog and low stratus
may fill in by Thursday morning. In addition, another complex of
thunderstorms may encroach on North Texas from the northwest
towards daybreak Thursday, but most of the rain chances with this
system will occur after sunrise.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 155 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Wednesday`s stalled front will lift northward on Thursday and
linger near the Red River through late this week. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop near/along the frontal
boundary Thursday and Friday, and some of this activity will
likely skirt portions of North Texas. Heading into the weekend,
an optimal set up is expected for MCS development in western
Texas/Oklahoma each night beginning Friday night. West to
northwest flow aloft will likely bring some of this MCS activity
into portions of North Texas Friday night/Saturday morning, and
again Saturday night/Sunday morning. There will be at least a low
threat for severe weather both days, but perhaps slightly more
favorable on Sunday. A cold front is expected to move through the
area on Sunday but will likely stall somewhere in the forecast
area. This will bring additional chances for showers and storms
early next week, allowing our period of active weather to
continue. Temperatures will remain near normal throughout the
period with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s and
warm/humid mornings in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Thunderstorm activity has largely departed the D10 airports to the
southeast as of 06z. For Waco, isolated thunderstorms exist in the
vicinity of the airport, but more numerous thunderstorms will
arrive from the northwest in a few hours and affect the TAF site
through 11-12z. While winds are presently variable in direction
due to convective influences, they will take on a predominant
northerly direction later this morning following the passage of a
weak cold front. Post-frontal IFR/MVFR stratus will fill in across
most of the area by daybreak, resulting in cigs at 1-2 kft
through the morning before lifting above 2 kft heading into the
afternoon. New isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop in
parts of Central and East Texas during the afternoon in the
vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary, but should remain well
south and east of all TAF sites. Cigs should eventually scatter
out towards 00z, with winds turning more easterly in the evening.
Additional fog/low stratus is possible just after the current
valid TAF period on Thursday morning.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible overnight. Even if activation is
not formally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  84  73  88  74 /  80  10   5  20   5
Waco                71  84  73  88  73 /  70  20   5  10   0
Paris               71  84  71  85  71 /  80  40   5  20   5
Denton              67  82  69  87  71 /  80  10   5  20   5
McKinney            70  83  71  87  73 /  80  10   5  20   5
Dallas              71  84  73  87  74 /  80  10   5  20   5
Terrell             73  85  72  89  73 /  80  20   5  10   0
Corsicana           72  86  73  90  75 /  70  30   5  10   0
Temple              71  88  73  92  73 /  60  30   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       64  83  69  88  71 /  70   5  10  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 2 AM CDT Wednesday for
TXZ093>095-104>107-118>123-132>135-142>146-156-157-159.

&&

$$