Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
803 FXUS64 KFWD 312342 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 642 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms will continue to impact North and Central Texas through tomorrow. - Locally heavy rainfall up to 1 to 3 inches is possible in a few areas where slow moving thunderstorms occur. - Following cooler temperatures today, highs will return to the mid 80s to mid 90s the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Cancelled the Flood Watch earlier as heavy rains had moved out of Central Texas, although some scattered light rain continues. Additional scattered showers have also developed across North Texas and are moving slowly southward, with some locally heavy rain in a few spots. Based on radar trends and latest guidance, made considerable updates to precip chances for the rest of the night with mainly chance pops for most of the area. Patchy fog also appears likely overnight given the very moist low level airmass, near-zero dewpoint depressions and wet ground. Shamburger Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon through Monday/ Widespread moderate to heavy rain moved through Central Texas this morning with the heaviest precipitation associated with the earlier complex now well to the south of the forecast area. Light to moderate rain is still ongoing behind the main band farther east, while more isolated convection with pockets of heavy rainfall is occurring across western Central Texas, which will continue into the afternoon hours. To the north, a few echoes have already appeared on radar along the Red River/NE of the Metroplex. Isolated to scattered storm development is likely across much of North Texas this afternoon, where the main upper level ascent exists in an area of little to no capping. Within this, a pocket of somewhat enhanced effective bulk shear has set up, with 20-35 kts in place per the latest mesoanalysis. This will support weakly organized cells developing this afternoon, with some likely merging into clusters as the afternoon progresses and skies continue clearing. These storms may briefly rotate, but anything more supercellular is unlikely given weak instability and pockets of dry air between 700-500 mb further reducing any already limited updraft strength. Most of the storms will diminish in the evening hours, with only isolated activity persisting (20-30%) overnight. This is mostly favorable for eastern North Texas and for portions of Central Texas. Given current trends, the Flood Watch will be allowed to expire at 7 PM. Otherwise, patchy fog may develop tonight due to light winds and recent rainfall saturating soils, particularly where the heaviest rain fell today. A surface low has developed across Southern Kansas with a near N-S oriented trough axis expected to sharpen and become more defined through the overnight hours, as embedded perturbations in the northwest flow aloft provide ascent. Some of the recent CAM guidance depicts this ill- defined boundary essentially bisecting the forecast area by tomorrow morning, with northerly winds behind it/to the west. This will focus isolated to scattered showers and storms along it (20-40%), mostly likely in the vicinity of the I-35 corridor during the morning. Isolated coverage (20%) will continue into the afternoon, gradually shifting south and east of the forecast area and exiting the forecast area by early evening. Skies are expected to clear more in the afternoon, which will allow temperatures to climb a few degrees warmer than today, topping off in the mid/upper 80s. Gordon && .LONG TERM... /Issued 128 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ /Monday Night Onward/ The mid/upper level shortwave will drop southeast through the Missouri Valley and Ozarks Monday night into Tuesday, which will send a cold front sagging through Oklahoma and into North and Central Texas. A stray shower developing as the front moves through can`t be entirely ruled out for areas east of I-35 along the Red River, but any chances of this remains low (10-20%). Slightly cooler air will accompany the front, with persistent northerly winds during the day Tuesday primarily ushering in drier air to the region. Current PWAT over the area is greater than the climatological 90th Percentile, with today`s 12Z FWD sounding measuring right at 2". Behind the front on Tuesday, the drier air will will drop PWATs to 1-1.4" across the area, back down to the climatological mean. Northwest flow aloft will prevail through the midweek with dry conditions expected both Tuesday and Wednesday, along with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, a pronounced upper level low will develop in the Ontario province and drop southward into the Great Lakes region. This will set up more amplified troughing over the Eastern U.S. late week, with another cold front moving through the Plains , approaching Oklahoma Wednesday night. Unfortunately, this front will become washed out and will fail to provide any cooldown. It will however, bring slight rain chances back to western North TX (10-20%) as a weakening complex associated with this may approach from Oklahoma. The remnant boundary will then likely lift back northward as a warm front, with southwest winds ahead of yet another potential front aiding in compressional warming on Friday. This will result in the warmest day of the next week, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Guidance is almost evenly split on the cold front for Friday night and Saturday, which is expected given it`s Day 7. About 60% of ensemble guidance keeps the front entirely to the north or stalls it not far south of the Red River. Given the uncertainty, low PoPs are advertised Friday night into the weekend, with temperatures Saturday in the mid/upper 80s. In terms of any cool down, none of the guidance is impressive (or aggressively "Fall- like") by any means, with the Middle 50th of the LREF guidance generally between 80-90 degrees for high temperatures, while the NBM is a few degrees warmer in its distribution. Gordon && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR conditions with VCSH will continue to impact Metroplex airports this evening, with HRRR suggesting showers in and around D10 through 06Z or so. Overnight, some patchy fog will bring tempo MVFR visibility to a few airports, but it`s not expected to be widespread or dense. Additional SHRA are anticipated after 15Z on Monday at Metroplex airports, with a low chance for VCTS. For KACT, VFR conditions are expected this evening but fog will bring IFR/LIFR conditions overnight in the 10-14Z timeframe. Conditions look to improve back to VFR after 14Z with more VCSH anticipated. At all airports, light southeast winds this evening will back to northerly with a weak fropa on Monday morning. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 88 71 89 68 / 30 40 5 10 0 Waco 72 86 69 92 67 / 30 40 5 5 0 Paris 70 86 66 86 64 / 30 20 20 20 0 Denton 70 88 67 88 64 / 30 30 5 10 0 McKinney 71 87 68 88 64 / 30 30 5 10 0 Dallas 73 88 72 90 69 / 30 40 5 10 0 Terrell 70 86 69 89 65 / 30 30 5 10 0 Corsicana 72 88 70 92 69 / 30 30 5 10 0 Temple 70 87 69 93 68 / 30 40 5 5 0 Mineral Wells 69 88 67 90 64 / 30 20 5 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$