394
FXUS64 KFWD 240024
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
624 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and breezy south winds are forecast
  this weekend.

- Thanksgiving Day`s forecast is trending cool, dry, and breezy.

- North Texas`s first widespread freeze is becoming more likely
  Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening through Monday Morning/

A much warmer night is expected as stronger southerly winds at
the surface and aloft aid in more efficient warm air advection
across the region overnight. Overnight lows will only bottom out
in the 50s, 15-20 degrees warmer than last night. Additionally, a
surge of increased low-level moisture in the form of a stratus
deck is progged to move across portions of North and Central
Texas overnight, keeping skies partly-mostly cloudy for most
through Sunday morning. Patchy fog was observed by a weather
service employee this morning in a river valley. With the
increase in moisture expected overnight, patchy fog with minor
visibility restrictions will once again be possible tomorrow
morning in low-lying and river valley areas.

The formation of a lee-side low to our northwest will tighten
the surface pressure gradient over the day on Sunday, allowing for
breezy winds. Wind speeds 15-20 mph with gusts up to around 25-30
mph expected. These winds are below our Wind Advisory criteria,
but it may be wise to pin down any loose outdoor objects. As for
our afternoon temperatures, the end of the weekend will fair
quite warm for mid-end November standards. Ample sunshine and
breezy south winds already favor warming temperatures. However,
temperatures aloft are already progged to be at least in the 90th
percentile, and with efficient vertical mixing, will aid in
further warming by a couple of degrees. Have gone above the base
NBM for Sunday afternoon highs, towards the NBM75 to account for
the set up. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to the
low-mid 80s.

Tomorrow night into Monday morning, a broad mid-level shortwave
trough will be transiting across the Continental Divide, sending a
stout cold front southward. Guidance has this front reaching our
area near daybreak, with much cooler temperatures (low 50s)
expected behind the boundary in our northwestern counties. Ahead
of the boundary, breezy southerly winds will help to keep most of
the region warm in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Otherwise, Monday`s
cold front is discussed in more detail in the long term forecast
below.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 254 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024/
/Monday through Saturday/

North Central Texas faces a roller-coaster ride of day to day
temperature changes throughout the upcoming Thanksgiving week,
culminating with a sustained period of below normal conditions
that will persist through the early part of the following week.
The one constant is that the pattern (as of now) appears
precipitation free for the next 7-10 days.

Following an exceptionally warm late November day on Sunday (as
discussed above), the first of two significant cold fronts will
push southward through the region on Monday. Counties north of
I-20 will naturally experience this frontal passage first, in the
morning hours, with strong cold advection acting to limit
midday/afternoon temperature rises in these areas. The front will
take a bit longer to penetrate the Central Texas zones, and this
will allow daytime readings in the southern third of the forecast
area to climb through the 70s, into the lower 80s in the Cameron
through Centerville regions.

Cool, dry Canadian air will dominate the region Monday night, and
this will allow temperatures to dip into the mid/upper 30s across
the western/northern counties by Tuesday morning. A few of the
naturally colder spots may actually reach the freezing point by
sunrise. We`ll see scattered frost throughout this area
regardless. Lows in the 40s will dominate elsewhere. Plenty of
sunshine and a return to southerly flow by afternoon will
facilitate a late day temperature rebound into the 60s in most
areas.

The pendulum will swing powerfully back into the warm category
Wednesday, as the Southern Plains experience zonal upper level
flow, a strong surface trough in the lee of the Rockies, and hence
a healthy south to southwest (partial-downslope) wind flow during
the day. This will enable afternoon highs to vault back into the
70s and 80s across North Central Texas - some 15-20 degrees above
normal. These balmy conditions will be short-lived, however, with
another marked change evolving by Wednesday into Thanksgiving
morning.

Another pronounced cold front will push southward across the Red
River after sunset Wednesday, clearing all our North Central
Counties by daybreak Thursday. This boundary, working in tandem
with a fast moving upper level trough transiting the Plains
states, will deliver extensive cloudcover to our area Wednesday
night and much of Thursday. Coupled with gusty north winds,
the clouds and cold advection will constrain readings to the 50s
from I-20 northward, with 60s across the south. Undercut the NBM
max temperature guidance a few degrees for Thursday, but in fact,
we may need to adjust highs for Thursday downward a bit more in
future forecasts. While not bonechilling by any stretch of the
imagination, the cool conditions (especially north of I-20) will
feel noticeable on Thanksgiving, creating an inviting atmosphere
for post-feast touch football games in the backyard.

Conditions still look favorable for many of our outlying counties
west through northeast of the Metroplex to see freezing, or near
freezing, lows by Friday morning. Daytime temperatures at or
somewhat below seasonal norms will continue Friday on through the
rest of the Thanksgiving weekend, with little or no indications of
precipitation into the first portion of December.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Southerly winds around 10-12 kts will prevail overnight with only
a smattering of high-level cloud cover expected overhead. A surge
of MVFR stratus is progged to move over the TAF sites tomorrow
morning, impacting ACT around 12Z and D10 closer to 14Z. The
stratus will lift over the rest of the morning, with the TAF sites
returning to VFR by 17-18Z. While winds will stay southerly over
the next 24-30 hours, wind speeds will be on the increase
tomorrow, with sustained speeds around 15-18 kts and gusts up to
25-27 kts possible through the afternoon hours. Gusts will
gradually lessen tomorrow evening as daytime heating is lost,
though speeds will remain around 15 kts.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  79  60  64  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                57  81  61  77  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               50  76  60  68  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              55  79  55  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            54  78  58  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              58  80  61  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             55  79  61  69  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           56  81  63  74  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              56  82  58  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       54  82  53  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$