Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
139 FXUS64 KFWD 131931 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 131 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread thunderstorms are expected to start early Saturday morning, continuing through the evening across much of North and Central Texas. - The severe weather threat is low, however, hail and gusty winds will be the main concerns through much of the day. A quick spin- up cannot be ruled out in the Brazos Valley/SE Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening. - Well above normal temperatures will continue through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Another tranquil weather afternoon is ongoing across North and Central Texas with mid and high level clouds continuing to stream in from the west/southwest. This cloud cover is arriving ahead of an approaching upper trough, currently over the Baja California peninsula. Over the next few hours, temperatures will continue to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the region. These temperatures are roughly between 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. The trough to our west contains a few embedded shortwaves which will gradually work their way to the east starting this evening and through the night. Increasing forcing for ascent will commence overnight with a few light rain showers possible as early as midnight across parts of North and Central Texas. Tonight`s highest rain chances will be well west of our region, closer to the Texas Panhandle. As the system moves east, the first shortwave will likely arrive closer to sunrise with a quasi-linear complex of storms just to our west. Instability during the morning hours will be relatively low, generally on the order of 400-800 J/Kg. Deep-layer shear, however, will be fairly strong. Therefore, the greatest risk with any of the morning storms will likely be the potential for small hail and gusty winds. A rogue isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, however, the severe weather potential through the morning and early afternoon hours will remain low. As we head into the latter half of the afternoon and evening hours, southerly flow will increase ahead of the next wave of ascent. By this time, a loosely organized line of storms will likely be ongoing east of I-35. As the line encounters richer Gulf moisture and slightly steeper lapse rates, the potential for strong to severe storms will increase slightly across the Brazos Valley and our southeastern counties. Slightly higher instability, along with increasing deep layer shear will yield a higher threat for large hail and damaging winds. Given the increasing 0-3 km shear vectors across the Brazos Valley, there could be a slightly higher risk for short-lived spin-ups along any north-south oriented line segments. This potential will be low, albeit, something we`ll continue to monitor in the next 24 hours. As the line of storms continues to grow upscale tomorrow evening, the main line will exit our region and enter far East Texas after midnight. Although the highest risk for severe weather will shift east, we`ll have the potential for additional storms across North Texas through the first half of Saturday night. This will be in response to lingering moisture, co-located with the very steep lapse rates as the trough (by this time a closed low) moves overhead. A few storms capable of small hail cannot be ruled out through around 4 AM Sunday morning. The overall flash flooding threat will remain low through tomorrow night given absorbent soils in place due to a lack of appreciable recent rainfall. Rain amounts will likely range between 1-2 inches with some locations to the north of I-20 and west of US-75 picking up closer to 2.5 inches. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Sunday will be the beginning of a precipitation-free period that will continue through at least next Friday. With the jet stream shifting northward, North and central Texas will largely be influenced by increasing heights and well above normal temperatures. This will translate to an increasing risk for fire starts by the middle of next week. The weather Tuesday onward will be characterized by relative humidity values in the 20-30% range and breezy southerly to southwesterly winds. Although tomorrow`s rainfall may help mitigate Tuesday`s fire weather threat, sufficient drying will continue through the middle of the week, incrementally increasing the fire weather threat going into Thursday as a precipitation-free cold front approaches the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 No weather impacts are ongoing across North and Central Texas with southerly winds and VFR conditions in place. This will be changing as we head into the night as low ceilings move in from the south. Prior to sunrise Saturday, expect MVFR to move in with occasional bouts of light rain showers. There will be a broken line of storms moving in from the northwest tomorrow morning, likely entering D10 closer to 17z. Initially, the line of storms will impact KAFW and KFTW. By 19z, expect this line move over KDFW and points east. A few lingering storms will continue to impact D10 through the afternoon before the main line of precipitation shifts east. For Waco, a similar trend is expected tonight into tomorrow with low ceilings and spotty rain showers expected. The aforementioned line of storms will also impact KACT, however, timing looks to favor a late afternoon arrival, well beyond this TAF cycle. Expect the 00z TAF cycle to include a mention of precipitation at KACT, generally between 22-01z Sunday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 69 53 67 / 40 100 70 0 Waco 63 70 55 68 / 20 90 50 0 Paris 60 67 55 64 / 30 100 90 10 Denton 59 68 49 67 / 60 100 70 0 McKinney 60 68 52 66 / 40 100 80 0 Dallas 63 69 55 67 / 40 100 70 0 Terrell 60 69 53 66 / 30 100 80 0 Corsicana 63 71 55 69 / 20 100 80 0 Temple 62 72 52 71 / 20 90 40 0 Mineral Wells 59 71 50 70 / 70 100 50 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez