897
FXUS64 KFWD 261853
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
153 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation, Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the middle of
  next week, although Sunday is expected to be dry.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and
  evening across western and northern North Texas.

- More severe storms are possible Monday night through Wednesday,
  along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall.


&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday morning/

Overall quiet weather is expected across much of our region the
rest of the weekend. The remnants of this morning`s MCS over
southern Oklahoma will continue to move eastward this afternoon
with a few showers and storms expected along our Red River and
northwestern counties. While widespread severe weather is not
anticipated across our region, we can`t rule out a few strong to
marginally severe storms with isolated damaging wind gusts the
main concern. Given the slow moving nature of this activity, there
could be some periods of moderate rain but flash flooding is not
expected. As far as later this afternoon and evening, some of the
high-res models continue to develop a few storms across West Texas
that could enter some of our western counties. If they develop,
there will be sufficient moisture and instability to produce hail
and locally damaging wind gusts. This activity will diminish later
this evening with dry weather expected the rest of the night.
Another round of low level clouds will arrive from the south
overnight spreading across North TX before daybreak Sunday.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The long-term period remains active across our region with
multiple opportunities for rain next week. We continue to
highlight the potential for both severe weather and locally heavy
rain, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time the greatest
severe weather risk is expected on Wednesday as a dryline
approaches from the west and a slow moving boundary travels from
the north. Overall our thinking about timing, hazards, and impacts
hasn`t changed with this forecast update. See the discussion below
for more details.

Sanchez

Previous Discussion:
/Sunday Through Late Next Week/

Our first rain-free day in quite some time is expected on Sunday.
Southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will result in warm
temperatures across the region with highs in the 80s. Our quiet
period will be short-lived as active weather will return late
Monday. A mid-level trough will be placed near the West Coast,
with a shortwave expected to eject from northern Mexico Monday
afternoon as a dryline simultaneously sharpens across West Texas.
As a result, isolated to scattered storms may develop along the
dryline, and if they do, they will make a run at western portions
of the forecast area Monday evening. The environment will be
supportive of discrete supercells capable of producing all
hazards. However, the main caveat that could make or break our
chances of seeing impactful storms will be the potential presence
of a cap. Hopefully, the strength of the cap (or lack thereof)
will become more evident as we get within range of hi-res
guidance this weekend.

On Tuesday, the upper level trough will continue moving east
through the Southwest CONUS. A surface low will have ejected from
the Front Range in response, sending a cold front into the
Southern Plains. However, this front will likely stall prior to
reaching the area Tuesday afternoon. The stalled front and a
dryline across West Texas will both serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development on Tuesday, with coverage peaking during
the afternoon. Abundant instability and ~30-40 knots of deep layer
shear will certainly support a threat for severe storms. Low-
level wind profiles don`t appear to be overly supportive of
tornadoes on Tuesday, but the threat will be non-zero. Large hail
and damaging winds will likely be the primary threats.

The mid-level trough will swing into West Texas Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, with another surface low ejecting from
northern Mexico ahead of the trough. A dryline will already be in
place across West Texas, but will be ushered further east by the
surface low throughout the day. Showers and thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing early in the morning as a result of strong
ascent from all of these features. However, storm coverage is
expected to peak Wednesday afternoon and evening as the dryline
enters western portions of the forecast area. At this time, the
environment is expected to be supportive of all severe weather
hazards, including a tornado threat. Continue to monitor the
forecast over the next few days, as specific timing and threat
areas come into focus.

A cold front will move through the region on Thursday, but a
consensus is yet to be made whether the front will bring an end to
this period of active weather. The NBM continues to output low
rain chances late next week into early next weekend. Ensemble
members are fairly split between active vs dry weather - perhaps
very slightly favoring the dry solution. However, given the lack
of confidence, will stick closely with the NBM for now. Otherwise,
temperatures won`t be significantly affected by the front with
highs remaining in the 70s and 80s through the end of the week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Low cigs again Sunday morning.

For the rest of the day, expect dry weather and VFR conditions to
continue as clouds scatter out. The storm complex to the
north/northwest should continue to move eastward without directly
impacting our sites. However, this activity may briefly impact
some of the northern arrivals/departures this afternoon.
Additional isolated storms may develop across the region after 5
pm this evening, but confidence remains low on the placement of
this activity or will likely remain west of the sites. Southerly
winds will prevail tonight around 5-10 kts increasing to around 13
kt tomorrow afternoon. The continuous surge of moisture will
bring another round of low stratus tonight, arriving at Waco by
09-10Z and to the DFW Metroplex sites around 12-13Z. Clouds will
eventually scatter out by 16-18Z as daytime heating takes place.

Sanchez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  84  69  86  69 /  10   5   0   5  20
Waco                67  86  69  86  69 /  10   0   0   0   5
Paris               63  83  67  83  67 /  30   5   0   0  10
Denton              64  83  66  84  66 /  10   5   0  10  20
McKinney            65  83  68  84  67 /  10   5   0   5  20
Dallas              67  85  69  86  69 /  10   5   0   5  20
Terrell             65  84  68  85  67 /   5   5   0   0   5
Corsicana           67  85  70  86  69 /   5   0   0   0   5
Temple              67  87  68  88  69 /  10   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       64  87  67  87  66 /  30   0   0  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$