828
FXUS64 KFWD 011036
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
536 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lingering showers will continue this morning with isolated
  storms possible (20% chance) this afternoon and evening.

- Low storm chances (10-20%) will continue Wednesday through
  Friday for areas near/west of U.S. 281.

- Seasonable conditions will continue with highs in the 90s and
  heat indices between 99 to 103 degrees at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 105 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025/
/Through Tonight/

The outflow boundary from tonight`s storms has crossed southward
through the Metroplex and is slowly losing momentum heading into
Central Texas. Ongoing bands of showers and a few storms across
North Texas will continue for a few more hours at most, before
diminishing. Temperatures behind the outflow dropped into the low
70s, with even a few upper 60s readings interspersed along the
Red River and northwest of the Metroplex. Ample cloud cover is
overhead still, but lows should drop a bit more this morning and
fall into the mid/upper 60s for a few lucky spots across North
Texas, with the more seasonable lower/middle 70s expected
elsewhere. Otherwise, July will kick off with near or slightly
cooler than normal afternoon highs, with readings in the low to
mid 90s. July 1 is the average first date of reaching 100 degrees
for DFW (July 4 for Waco), and thankfully, North and Central Texas
will be later than average this year with run-of-the-mill summer
heat anticipated the next few days.

Storm chances will return Tuesday during the day for much of the
area, but coverage will remain low (~20-30%). Isolated storms are
most likely to develop where the aforementioned outflow boundary
remains draped, generally bisecting the forecast area across
northern Central TX which aligns with an axis of higher low/mid
level moisture. Similar to many of the previous days over the last
week or so, these storms aren`t expected to be impressive, but
may contain gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

Gordon

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 105 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025/
/Wednesday Onward/

The extended period will be largely quiet with highs in the 90s
and low rain chances for areas out west. A subtropical ridge
centered just to the south/east of the region will keep largely
subsident weather in place with moist, southerly flow. The
exception to this is for locations near and west of U.S. 281
through the end of the work week, where an enhanced plume of
tropical moisture through West TX and a weak upper trough will
support rain chances. The better chances will exist outside of the
forecast area, but 20% PoPS have been maintained each day through
Friday. Beyond Friday/July 4th, rain chances will come to an end
with highs nudging into the mid/upper 90s.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

No major concerns are expected through the TAF period with VFR
prevailing. Winds have weakened this morning to around 5 kts or
less and any lower decks near 050-060 have now lifted/scattered
at all sites. Winds will increase in speed slightly to around 5 to
10 kts through today out of the northwest, before gradually
shifting to become more E and SE this afternoon/evening. Outside
of this, there is a low potential for storms across the region,
but coverage will remain isolated today with impacts at the sites
themselves unlikely (20% chance).

Gordon

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  78  95  78  94 /  20  10  10   5   5
Waco                94  75  95  76  93 /  20  10   5   5   5
Paris               91  73  92  73  92 /  20   5  10   5   5
Denton              90  74  95  74  94 /  20  10  10   5   5
McKinney            92  74  94  76  94 /  20  10  10   5   5
Dallas              94  78  96  78  95 /  20  10  10   5   5
Terrell             93  74  95  75  94 /  20  10  10   5   5
Corsicana           95  75  96  76  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
Temple              95  73  95  73  94 /  10   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       92  74  95  73  93 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$