Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
950 FXUS64 KFWD 292327 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 527 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued gusty north winds and low humidity will lead to a low risk for a few wildfires across the region this afternoon. - Much colder and below normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday, with warmer and above normal temperatures the rest of this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 517 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 No major changes are needed to the current forecast. Thick mid cloud cover will continue to prevail for several hours tonight mainly south of I-20 where a few sleet pellets have been reported through the afternoon. Very dry sub cloud layer air will prevent anything more than isolated pellets here and there. Gusty north winds will diminish in another hour or so with cloud cover slowly clearing through the overnight hours from north to south. We`ll have to keep an eye on overnight low temperatures north of I-20 with skies expected to clear and winds expected to diminish. More favorable radiational cooling conditions could lead to lows a few degrees colder than currently forecast. Dunn && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1241 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Cold advection in the wake of Sunday`s frontal passage will remain the dominant influence through the short term period. Early afternoon observations show a very dry boundary layer firmly in place across North and Central Texas, with surface dewpoints largely holding in the low to mid teens along with gusty north winds. This dry sub-cloud layer has already proven effective at limiting precipitation southwest of the forecast area in response to increasing mid-level ascent associated with a subtle shortwave. Forecast soundings and surface observations continue to show deep dry air below roughly 600 mb and any hydrometeors will largely evaporate before reaching the ground. As a result, measurable rainfall is not expected, and PoPs have been kept below 15 percent region wide. For the remainder of the day, the primary sensible weather concerns will be the combination of breezy north winds and very low humidity. Afternoon relative humidity will fall to near or below 25 percent across much of the region, atop dry fuels from a prolonged precipitation-free stretch. While winds are gradually weakening compared to Sunday, occasional gusts will persist and support localized elevated fire weather conditions through late afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to recover despite the mostly sunny skies, with high generally in the 40s. Tonight will be the coldest portion of the short term period as surface high pressure settles overhead and winds diminish. Increasing high cloud cover should inhibit optimal radiational cooling, but lows will still fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s by daybreak. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the day Tuesday, though on average, highs will be 5-10 degrees warmer than today. By Tuesday evening, the surface high will be positioned to the southeast of the region, allowing southerly return flow to slowly re-establish. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1241 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 The broader pattern through the extended forecast period remains quiet and dominated by warming temperatures and dry conditions. Southerly low-level flow will strengthen modestly Tuesday night into Wednesday as surface high pressure shifts farther east and weak lee troughing develops to the west. This will allow temperatures to rebound steadily through the later half of the week as mid-level ridging builds overhead. Highs will climb into the 60s on Wednesday, the low 70s by Thursday, and the mid 70s and low 80s by Friday, with the warmest readings favored across Central Texas. Overnight lows will also trend milder, returning to near or slightly above seasonal normals. The end of December will remain precipitation-free, continuing a notable dry stretch for North and Central Texas. A weak front may approach late in the week, but current guidance suggests little more than a modest temperature adjustment with no meaningful moisture return. Even behind this boundary, temperatures are expected to remain above normal into early January. New Year`s Eve: The forecast remains favorable for outdoor plans with no impactful weather expected. Afternoon temperatures on Wednesday will reach the 60s, and evening conditions will be dry with light winds. Temperatures will gradually fall through the evening hours, reaching the upper 40s around midnight. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 517 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 North winds will continue to be gusty for another hour or so before diminishing. Thick mid cloud cover will linger, especially into Central TX for several more hours. There have been a few reports of sleet pellets in Central TX with some of the light radar returns, but no significant wintry precip concerns are expected. Skies will gradually clear from north to south overnight into Tuesday with VFR prevailing through the period. Light north winds will become more southerly late in the day Tuesday. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 30 53 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 29 53 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 24 48 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 24 54 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 25 52 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 30 53 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 26 51 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 30 53 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 30 54 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 25 58 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$