431
FXUS64 KFWD 081137
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight with
   threats for hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.

-  Additional heavy rain of 2 to 3 inches with isolated 5 inch
   amounts are possible through tonight, especially across the
   northwest where a Flood Watch is in effect.

-  Dry and mild weather is expected the first part of next week,
   but low rain chances return on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A swath of heavy rain fell overnight averaging between 4 and 7
inches extending from Eastland County northwest to Jack County and
western Wise County. With additional rainfall expected through
the day, we went ahead and issued a Flood Watch for the northwest
counties through 9 PM this evening. One benefit to the heavy rain
will be to fill Lake Bridgeport which is currently about 12 feet
below normal.

A few storms also became severe overnight with marginally severe
hail. The threat for a few severe storms will continue through the
evening, especially along an eastward moving cold front expected
later today.

Other than adding the Flood Watch to the northwest zones, no major
changes are needed to the forecast (see discussion below).

79

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Friday night/

Storms will continue to fire overnight across West Texas and from
the Concho Valley to the Red River as the center of a powerful
closed low churns across New Mexico. The ongoing storms across the
western CWA are developing on a warm front extending eastward from
a surface low near San Angelo. Ample shear and moderate instability
have supported a few marginally severe storms containing hail and
strong wind gusts. There has also been heavy rainfall and some
flooding due to storm training, especially over Eastland County.
Storms will continue through the night, staying primarily west of
the the I-35 corridor.

Storms will remain across the northwest at sunrise Friday with
patchy fog and drizzle across much of the forecast area. Large
scale forcing will increase through the day once the upper low
starts to lift to the northeast, allowing a Pacific cold front to
to push in from the west. The front will become a focus for a
somewhat disorganized line of storms. While the general movement
of the line will be east, storm motion will be northeast with
training storms just ahead of the advancing boundary. There should
be enough instability and shear to support strong to marginally
severe storms along with heavy rainfall. The line of storms will
move steadily eastward, likely exiting the forecast area
overnight Friday/early Saturday morning.

It will stay warm and humid overnight with lows mainly in the 60s.
Ample cloud cover Friday will keep temperatures from warming much
but most locations should at least see highs in the 70s. Drier air
and clearing skies will allow temperatures Friday night to fall
into the 40s west of I-35 with 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 256 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024/
/Saturday through Thursday/

The center of the powerful closed upper low will lift to the
Central Plains Saturday morning, allowing a cold front to slide
into East Texas. The front will lose its forward momentum, being
aided by the easterly surface winds supplied by Hurricane Rafael.
While most of the region will be precipitation-free Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning, the southeast zones may see a
few showers or isolated thunderstorms due to tropical moisture
from Rafael being lifted over the stalled front.

The upper low will lift quickly towards the Great Lakes Sunday
with zonal flow becoming established across the Lone Star State
to start the work week. The low level flow around Rafael will keep
the Gulf largely cut off but the airmass behind the early weekend
cold front will not be exceptionally cold or dry, so temperatures
Sunday through Tuesday will be very pleasant with highs mainly in
the 70s and lows ranging from the middle 40s to the middle 50s.

The upper flow will become more northwesterly Tuesday night/Wednesday
when an upper low drops southeastward out of southern Canada. The
cold front associated with this trough will move southward
through the Central Plains Tuesday night and through the Southern
Plains on Wednesday. A few showers may accompany the cold front
but sparse moisture will limit precipitation chances to the
southeastern zones.

Once the upper trough axis swings to the East Coast, a ridge will
build in from the south. This will bring quiet and rain-free
weather Thursday through the end of next week. However, it does
appear that another weather system approaching from the west late
next week could be our next rain maker around the 17th/18th of
November.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

IFR to LIFR conditions will continue through the day with low
(generally between 500 and 1000 ft) stratus and areas of drizzle/
fog. Ceilings will lift between 1500 and 2500 ft behind a cold
front this evening but VFR will likely not return to the region
until just before sunrise Saturday.

Periodic showers are expected through the day with a potential for
thunderstorms. It still appears the best window of time for storms
across the Metroplex TAF sites will be from about 20Z until 02Z
along and ahead of a cold front. Storm timing at Waco will be
similar but possibly delayed by an hour or two. It should be
noted that isolated storms could briefly impact any terminal
anytime before the cold front arrives early this evening.

An east to southeast wind will continue through the day at speeds
between 10 and 15 knots along with some gusts around 25 knots.
FROPA wind shift to the west/northwest will likely be between 03Z
and 04Z at all sites. Wind speeds behind the front will likely
stay at or below 12 knots.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  55  70  54  74 /  80  80   5  10   5
Waco                77  53  71  52  76 /  70  60  10  10   5
Paris               69  57  70  50  74 /  70  90  30  20   5
Denton              71  49  70  48  75 /  90  80   5  10   5
McKinney            70  52  70  49  75 /  80  90  10  10   5
Dallas              73  53  72  51  75 /  80  80  10  10   5
Terrell             73  55  70  52  76 /  80  80  20  20   5
Corsicana           77  57  72  55  76 /  80  80  20  20  10
Temple              79  53  73  52  79 /  70  50   5  10   5
Mineral Wells       73  46  71  47  75 /  90  40   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-
129.

&&

$$