507
FXUS64 KFWD 060026
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
626 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal temperatures to end the week will be followed by
  much cooler weather starting late weekend. Highs will be near 90
  degrees, particularly west of I-35 on Saturday afternoon.

- Good rain chances (60 to 70 percent) are expected Monday
  through early Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

Our warm front has now lifted north of the Red River leaving most
of our region fog-free with prevailing south winds at 10-15 mph
gusting to 20 mph at times. A relatively warm, humid night is on
tap with widespread overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Another
surge of low stratus is expected late tonight with cloud cover
sprawling over much of the region along/east of Highway 281
through early Thursday afternoon. Very patchy fog may develop
across portions of North and Central Texas during this time, but
wind speeds generally above 8 mph should keep visibility
reductions brief and localized to low-lying and sheltered areas.
Greater coverage of dense fog is expected right along and north of the
Red River in the vicinity of that frontal boundary.

The temperature forecast could get a bit tricky again Thursday
afternoon thanks to that lingering frontal boundary. Current
thinking is that the front should hover just north of the Red
River through midday Thursday before gradually pushing south as
surface high pressure builds over the Central Plains. Therefore,
many locations along the Red River may struggle to escape the low
to mid 60s tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of the front, southwesterly
flow will tick temperatures up into the low 80s south of I-20 and
west of I-35 where mostly sunny skies will prevail. The rest of
the region will rise into the low to mid 70s below that cloud
deck. The greatest temperature uncertainty exists generally from
Young-Denton-Lamar County where an earlier FROPA could keep
temperatures down in the 60s. Isolated light showers may develop
along this front during the day Thursday, but QPF more than a few
hundredths of an inch is not expected.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 209 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025/
/Thursday Night through next Wednesday/

...Thursday Night into Saturday Night...

On Thursday night, the polar airmass to our north will make
another southward intrusion into North Texas. The cold front on
the interface of this airmass and the tropical airmass to the
south will slowly push from the Red River to the I-20 corridor
before stalling sometime around 6 AM CST Friday morning. There is
still substantial model uncertainty with the exact placement of
this boundary and the timing of its retreat towards the north. The
most likely scenario is that the frontal boundary lingers
somewhere between I-20 and the Red River through the morning hours
on Friday. Temperatures south of the front will quickly warm into
the upper 70s and low 80s by the afternoon hours. North of the
front, temperatures will struggle to warm into the 60s. There is
some signal that front`s retreat will be delayed until Friday
night (20 to 30 percent chance of occurrence), there is a much
greater chance (70 to 80 percent chance) that the stalled out
frontal zone will transition into a warm front and quickly advance
north into the central Plains Friday night in response to strong
southwesterly mid-level flow (30 to 40 knots at 850 hPa).

Saturday afternoon temperatures are expected to be near record
levels area-wide with highs well into the 80s, approaching 90
degrees west of the I-35 corridor. Sometime between 3 and 6 PM
Saturday afternoon, an arctic front will move south into north
Texas and push into central Texas by Saturday night. Immediately
ahead of this front, there may be a brief window (3 to 5 hours)
for elevated fire weather concerns west of US-281, as RH values
will fall under 35% and winds may gust as high as 20 to 30 mph out
of the west-southwest. Temperatures will quickly fall behind this
front with lows in the 50s for much of the region, and 40s
northwest of a line from Comanche to Bonham. There is some
uncertainty with how far south this front will move by the early
morning hours on Sunday, so some locations south of US-84 may only
drop to near 60 degrees.

...Sunday through next Wednesday...

By the end of this weekend, zonal flow aloft will break down as a
longwave trough approaches the area from the west. Unfortunately
before the arrival of the primary upper-level disturbance, there
will continue to be uncertainties with exact frontal zone
placement Sunday into Monday as the Saturday night front looks to
stall out across the region. By Tuesday morning, the vorticity max
associated with the primary upper-level disturbance will eject
into the southern Plains. Monday afternoon into Monday night,
forcing for ascent in advance of this disturbance will lead to
widespread clouds and rain development (60 to 70 percent chance),
particularly along and east of the I-35 corridor. The heaviest
rain is expected Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. Rainfall
totals along and east of the I-35 corridor look to range from 0.5"
to 1.0". Further west, a quarter inch of rain seems more
realistic. There is a low chance (20 to 30 percent chance) of
drizzle/light rain ahead of this system Sunday into Monday
morning.

A more substantial and long-lasting surge of cold air is expected
Tuesday night into Wednesday as troughing will dominate upper-
level flow in the central CONUS. Below average temperatures are
expected by the middle of next work week, with highs struggling to
make it out of the 40s and morning lows near freezing.


Darrah

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR conditions and south flow at 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts at
times will prevail through the next several hours. Another surge
of MVFR cigs will approach KACT near 07Z and the D10 terminals
around 08Z-09Z. These low cigs will persist through the morning,
scattering and lifting around 19Z early Thursday afternoon (likely a
bit earlier for the western D10 sites and a bit later at KDAL).
There is a low possibility for a few hour period of IFR cigs early
Thursday morning, and a brief IFR TEMPO group may be needed in
future TAF updates. Very patchy fog may develop late tonight into
Thursday morning south of the Red River, but higher wind speeds
should keep visibility reductions brief and localized. The better
potential for dense fog will remain along and north of the Red
River in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  78  60  78  64 /   5  10   0   0   0
Waco                65  78  63  81  66 /   5   5   0   0   0
Paris               64  72  58  77  63 /  10  20  10  10   5
Denton              61  76  54  77  61 /   5  10   5   5   0
McKinney            63  76  57  77  63 /  10  10   5   5   0
Dallas              65  78  60  80  65 /   5  10   0   0   0
Terrell             64  77  62  80  65 /   5  10   5   5   0
Corsicana           66  79  65  82  67 /   5   5   0   0   0
Temple              63  79  62  82  65 /   5   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       60  83  54  82  62 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$