126
FXUS64 KFWD 221852
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1252 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and breezy south winds are forecast
  this weekend.

- Thanksgiving Day`s forecast is trending cool, dry, and breezy.

- North Texas`s first widespread freeze is becoming more likely
  Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1134 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024/
/Today and Tomorrow/

The southern periphery of a high pressure ridge will move into
East Texas this afternoon and settle into the lower Mississippi
River Valley this weekend. This will result in pleasant afternoon
temperatures with light winds and low humidity across the region
today. As the surface high shifts east, the mid-level ridge to
our west will break down as a stout trough digs into the Western
CONUS. The flattening ridge will result in cross flow overtop of
the Rockies and leeside pressure falls to our west. South flow
will return tonight and start to draw warm and moist air north
through the weekend.

Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow morning,
particularly for areas west of I-35. Areas east of I-35 will
still be heavily influenced by the surface ridge and fall into the
mid 30s. Tomorrow afternoon will be mild, or about 5-10 degrees
warmer than today. The winds will also be a little breezy in the
afternoon, generally between 10-15 mph with occasional gusts to
around 20 mph.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Onward/

The synoptic pattern across the CONUS this weekend and much of
next week will feature zonal flow with a strong west-east PFJ
aligned across the central part of the CONUS. This will result in
a few systems moving across the region and a temperature roller
coaster locally over the next 7-10 days.

As alluded to above, warm and moist advection will be in full
force Sunday with highs in the low 80s expected for most of the
area. Our current forecast highs for Dallas-Fort Worth and Waco
aren`t daily records, but would be top 5 on record. It will also
be breezy with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and peak gusts of
30-35 mph. The first downswing in temperature will occur Monday
behind the week`s first cold front. Since FROPA won`t occur until
after daybreak Monday for most, expect a mild and humid start to
the workweek. The front should move into North Texas near daybreak
and move across all of North and Central Texas over the course of
the day. The front will bring a dry airmass into the region, so
daytime highs should still be able to climb several degrees and
negate the cold advection. However, Monday night/Tuesday morning
will be noticeably cooler, about 20 degrees cooler than the night
before in some spots.

The surface high will quickly translate east with south flow
returning by Tuesday and warmer weather returning Wednesday. The
PFJ will dip south late Wednesday, basically aligning over North
Texas late in the week. This southward shift in the jetstream has
increased our confidence in a cooler Thanksgiving Day. We have
also removed the mention of precipitation from our forecast since
the quick-hitting nature of next week`s systems leave a lot to be
desired in terms of moisture flux and the ability for the weather
systems to produce precipitation.

Regarding Thanksgiving day...most of the guidance has a cold front
moving through our area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
High pressure should build into North and Central Texas Thursday,
resulting in a stiff north breeze and decreasing clouds in the
afternoon. It`s still a bit too soon to know specific wind speeds
and temperatures, but we`re becoming confident in it being a cool
and breezy holiday this year. Thursday night`s forecast has also
trended much cooler. Most of North Texas outside of the Metroplex
now has a 50-70% chance of experiencing a freeze Friday morning.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1134 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

ENE (030-090) winds AOB 05 kts will prevail this afternoon before
becoming southeasterly (110-130) this evening. Gusty south
(180-160) flow is expected tomorrow afternoon, but we did not add
an extra line to the DFW TAF since those subtle details (i.e.
won`t have a high impact to aircraft operations) can be added with
future TAFs. VFR will prevail with passing cirrus overhead.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    45  72  57  79  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                41  74  56  83  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               37  68  50  77  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              37  72  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            38  71  53  78  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              44  73  56  80  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             38  72  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           42  73  56  81  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              41  76  54  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       39  76  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$