Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
325 FXUS64 KFWD 212334 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 634 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast through tomorrow, with the highest rain chances across Central Texas. - This weekend will be seasonably hot and generally rain-free. - A cold front will arrive early next week, bringing below normal temperatures and daily rain chances through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 119 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025/ /Today and Tomorrow/ A backdoor cold front moved through yesterday, bringing northeast flow and near seasonal temperatures to the region today. The front did lower temperatures, but it did not remove the low-level moisture/instability. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are ongoing across much of Central Texas early this afternoon and expect this trend to continue/expand into North Texas later today. Coverage of storms in Central Texas should be between 30-50% and between 10-20% across North Texas. Subtle surface ridging and a slug of dry air in the mid/upper levels will help diminish the coverage of convection in North Texas, but a weak shortwave trough moving into the area from the northeast will help counteract the dry air intrusion of updrafts. Most of the storms should weaken and dissipate early this evening, but a few showers are expected to continue overnight across parts of Central Texas. The primary threats with today`s activity will be short-lived downpours that create localized flooding as well as isolated micro/downburst winds underneath the strongest storm cores. A more subsident airmass should move into the area late tonight, helping lower the coverage of showers and storms tomorrow. Lift and moisture will be greatest across Southeast Texas and the Brazos Valley, but we are still forecasting 30-40% coverage of showers/storms across Eastern Central Texas tomorrow afternoon. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 119 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025/ /This Weekend through Early Next Week/ Stable east-northeast flow aloft will establish over the region this weekend and early next week, keeping precip chances confined to the far southern reaches of our Central Texas counties. The increasingly subsident airmass will also drive temperatures into the upper 90s, with heat index values into the low 100s for most of the area. A strong high pressure system/cold front is forecast to build over the Eastern CONUS early next week and send another backdoor cold front toward North and Central Texas Monday night or Tuesday. There is still uncertainty how far southwest the coolest air will manage to extend (some guidance has it hanging up in Arkansas and some drive it into the Central Texas Hill Country), but generally lower temperatures and daily rain/storm are forecast for the mid to late parts of next week regardless of the frontal position. An active northwest flow aloft regime will help spark showers/storms over western KS/OK each day/night next week that make a run for North and Central Texas. If the front stalls over North and Central Texas (~40% chance of this), we would be prime for each of these storm complexes to move into our forecast area. If the front were to hang to our northeast (~60% chance of this), we would still have daily precip chances but the precip amount and coverage will be on the low-end of the guidance. We`ll continue to monitor the guidance in the coming days before starting to be confident with rain amounts. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Two outflow boundaries are currently traversing through the Metroplex (from the east and from the north) with several convective attempts occurring in the vicinity of KDFW near the intersection of the boundaries. These cells have been struggling against dry mid/upper-level air all day with very little lightning noted in any activity along and north of the I-20 corridor. We have removed VCTS from the D10 terminal TAFs and extended the VCTS period at KACT through 01Z this evening. All shower and storm activity should quickly diminish after 01Z with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, expect prevailing VFR conditions with SCT cigs at 5-8kft and east-northeast winds generally below 10 kts. Langfeld && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 93 76 96 76 / 10 10 0 0 0 Waco 73 91 72 94 73 / 20 20 5 5 0 Paris 71 93 71 95 71 / 5 0 0 0 0 Denton 73 94 72 97 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 McKinney 73 93 72 97 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dallas 77 94 76 98 77 / 10 10 0 0 0 Terrell 73 93 72 95 72 / 10 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 74 94 73 96 74 / 20 20 0 5 0 Temple 72 93 71 95 70 / 20 30 5 10 5 Mineral Wells 71 93 70 96 70 / 10 5 0 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$