664
FXUS64 KFWD 091932
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
132 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil weather conditions will continue through the next 7
  days with mild temperatures and no rain expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024/
/Through Sunday Afternoon/

Yesterday`s cold front and the departure of the upper trough has
left behind mostly clear skies and much drier conditions. Light
northwesterly winds are in place across the region with a gradual
shift out of the southeast by later this afternoon.

High temperatures today will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s
with tomorrow expected to be about 5 degrees warmer. Another
chilly morning is in store tomorrow with lows in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night Onward/

Pleasant and dry conditions are expected as we go into the
upcoming work week as broad upper level ridging generally remains
planted across the Southern Plains. Afternoon highs will peak in
the 70s, with mostly clear skies and humidity minimums in the
40-50% range. While not impacting our sensible weather directly,
Tropical Storm Rafael will continue to swirl around in the
western/central Gulf of Mexico over the majority of this upcoming
week. The cyclonic flow from TS Rafael will influence moisture
transport across Texas and the Gulf Coast, keeping more abundant
moisture further south in response. A shortwave upper level trough
is progged to move across the Central Plains on Wednesday,
shunting the ridge east and pushing a weak cold front south into
North Texas. With the aforementioned lack of moisture ahead of the
front, rain chances will remain negligible as the front slides
into North Texas.

There remains uncertainty on just how far the front moves into
the region before stalling. Long range deterministic guidance is
split, with the GFS stalling the front across North Texas, and the
ECMWF pushing the boundary fully through the region. However,
current cluster analysis leans toward the front making it all the
way through. Nonetheless, the presence of the weak front and the
displacement of the upper ridge will be enough to shave a couple
of degrees off of the high temperatures on Thursday. Afternoon
temperatures will peak in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

The shortwave trough will quickly move east over the latter half
of the week as southerly winds return and upper ridging begins to
build in once again over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will
warm in response, nudging back into the mid 70s and low 80s by
next Saturday. Going a bit further out towards the end of this
next weekend, a stouter upper level trough will begin to move
towards the Continental Divide. Minor disturbances ahead of this
system and the return of southerly flow aloft may help to bring
about the return of rain chances, but there is still considerable
uncertainty in exact timing and location. We`ll continue to keep
an eye on future model guidance as this becomes closer in time.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Light westerly to northwesterly winds are in place at this time
with just a few high clouds streaming atop North and Central
Texas. This tranquil weather pattern will stay in place through
this forecast cycle with VFR skies and winds below 5 knots. Wind
direction will be shifting as we progress through the afternoon,
becoming southeasterly by this evening. Through the night, winds
will likely vary between southerly to southwesterly, however, no
impacts are expected given the light wind speeds.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    55  75  53  73  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                54  77  50  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               50  74  50  73  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              48  75  47  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            50  75  49  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              54  76  53  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             53  76  50  75  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           56  78  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              53  80  50  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       47  75  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$