Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
660 FXUS64 KFWD 020648 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1248 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures in the 60s to around 70 are expected today and Tuesday. - A cold front will bring widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms east of I-35 on Tuesday, with light rainfall totals less than one quarter inch expected. - Following a cooler day in the 50s on Wednesday, above normal temperatures in the 60s and 70s are expected the rest of the week into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1243 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Much warmer this morning than the previous two mornings across North and Central Texas thanks to south winds keeping the BL mixed, with current readings ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s. Lows should only drop into the low to mid 30s areawide by sunrise, although a few upper 20s are possible. Despite the cooler start, the warmest day we have seen in nearly 2 weeks is anticipated today thanks to a 20-30kt southwesterly LLJ. Highs are expected to soar over 30 degrees from this morning`s lows and reach well into the 60s to around 70 this afternoon under mostly clear skies. An even warmer night is on the way for Monday night as Gulf moisture increases and low clouds spread across much of the forecast area ahead of an approaching weak cold front, with lows only dropping into the mid 40s to mid 50s. This front looks to take its sweet time moving through our area on Tuesday, and likely won`t be completely out of the cwa until Tuesday evening per 00Z guidance. Ahead of the front, widely scattered showers are anticipated to develop Tuesday morning east of I-35, then increase in coverage over our southeast counties Tuesday afternoon before exiting by Tuesday evening. Forecast soundings show MUCAPE up to 300 J/Kg along with steep mid level lapse rates to 8 C/km, so a few thunderstorms are also possible. Can`t rule out some isolated small hail with the strongest cores given the forecast lapse rates and cold mid-level temperatures near -20C at 500mb, but nothing strong or severe is anticipated. Rainfall totals look very light and less than one quarter inch for our counties, with rain staying mostly east of the I-35 urban corridor. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1243 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 In the wake of Tuesday`s cold front, Wednesday will be cooler with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s. A deep upper trough swinging NW to SE across the southern Plains could also bring a few sprinkles to the region on Wednesday, but no pops appear warranted attm. The rest of the week and upcoming weekend appear dry and much warmer as a large upper ridge builds across the Plains and Rockies. This pattern will bring an extended period of above normal temperatures to North and Central Texas from Thursday through at least Sunday, with highs reaching the 60s/70s and lows in the 30s/40s. 00Z GFS/ECWMF indicate the upper pattern will transition to a large trough over the western CONUS with a ridge over the east, which typically is a warm and wet pattern for us - so the unusually warm weather will likely continue into the second week of February. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow at all airports although MVFR cigs are likely near the end of and after the current TAF period. SKC is anticipated tonight into Monday morning with south winds up to 10 knots, with increasing cirrus clouds and stronger south winds around 15 knots Monday afternoon. South winds will subside somewhat Monday evening/night with MVFR cigs potentially arriving at ACT after 30/03Z and D10 airports around/after 30/06Z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 35 67 49 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 55 35 68 54 / 0 0 0 10 Paris 47 30 62 47 / 0 0 0 30 Denton 54 30 66 43 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 51 32 65 47 / 0 0 0 20 Dallas 54 36 67 51 / 0 0 0 20 Terrell 52 32 65 50 / 0 0 0 20 Corsicana 54 35 68 54 / 0 0 0 20 Temple 57 33 68 53 / 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 59 32 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger